How would market (Sensex/Nifty) perform during next week 27/10/2008 to 31/10/2008 ??

[actuaryinmaking]

Folks -

Thought this would be very useful to us to put our thoughts from facts/figures/history/current-scenario/tech-analysis that given sensex has come down to ~8700 from ~12500 in about 20 sessions (fall of ~4000 points)...how would market (Sensex/Nifty) perform during next week 27/10/2008 to 31/10/2008 ??

Seems practically there exists no technical support to Sensex/Nifty at any level now and it is in free-fall or wild zone now....

Would it bounce back on Monday/Tuesday by 200-400 points and then resume free fall again?

Black Friday 24-10-2008

PS: Genuine discussions only please....no jokes/teasing/funny-useless-baseless-comments please...thx

 

[praveen taneja]

Re: How would market (Sensex/Nifty) perform during next week 27/10/2008 to 31/10/2008

Sensex can hav a bounce back of 1000 to 1500 due to expiry and short covering but still no strength and liquidity and not the least shaken confidence of people will not take sensex above that n huge selling can come again

 

[columbus]

Re: How would market (Sensex/Nifty) perform during next week 27/10/2008 to 31/10/2008

Folks -

Thought this would be very useful to us to put our thoughts from facts/figures/history/current-scenario/tech-analysis that given sensex has come down to ~8700 from ~12500 in about 20 sessions (fall of ~4000 points)...how would market (Sensex/Nifty) perform during next week 27/10/2008 to 31/10/2008 ??

Seems practically there exists no technical support to Sensex/Nifty at any level now and it is in free-fall or wild zone now....

Would it bounce back on Monday/Tuesday by 200-400 points and then resume free fall again?

PS: Genuine discussions only please....no jokes/teasing/funny-useless-baseless-comments please...thx

....I agree with you.With no Major or Minor levels Supporting the NIFTY from bottom ,bull rallies (if at all) may not last long.Moreover Nifty is not in consolidation mode.It is wise to book profit on every assent.......

 

[actuaryinmaking]

Re: How would market (Sensex/Nifty) perform during next week 27/10/2008 to 31/10/2008

Here are pasts falls-followed-by-rise and rise-followed-by-fall data...

 

[renu daga]

Re: How would market (Sensex/Nifty) perform during next week 27/10/2008 to 31/10/2008

nice actuary,,, seriuosly no jkes///

well i think nifty shall ,, trade in 200 plus,,, side movements,,
and tehn slide,,,

even if my first part goes wrong but second part will surely go right

i think some side ways movement for 2/3 days

 

[AW10]

Re: How would market (Sensex/Nifty) perform during next week 27/10/2008 to 31/10/2008

From technical perspective, IMO, there is high probability of seeing green candle within the long Red body of this week (Harami Candlestick pattern). We might see retest of fridays low of 8566 (or might go below that due to panic selling) but there are higher chances of reversal.

Reason for that
1) We are at the June 2006 pivot support level of 8800.. (I will give few points as filter to that support level)
2) Next market structure pivot support is 7650 level of Oct/2005 low. I don't believe that there are not support levels. If we look left on the chart then we can find these levels. We just need to search for swing pivot high and lows.
3) Weekly Stochastics is running at histocially lowest level of 5. i.e. market is extreamly oversold
4) Projected target from break of 15500 to 12500 channel (15550-12500 = 3000 pts) was 9500 (=12500-30000 ) which is already achieved
5) After 62%, Fibnocci retracement, next level to watch out is 72% which comes around 9300.
6) 5 weeks of continuous fall is not something that we have seen since 2001 Generally we see Hammer or Harami pattern in 6th week.
7) Break above the prev weeks high of 10750 is unlikely.

So I am in sideway camp, with probability of lower low and reversal. With all of the above reason, still it is possible that market throws another surprise.

Happy Trading.

 

[deepngp]

Re: How would market (Sensex/Nifty) perform during next week 27/10/2008 to 31/10/2008

markets have lost the direction as there was a bull run like a drunken monkey fired back by FII s and the greed of indian public which was a fantastic reap for IPO who fooled with exorbant premium without any restrictioncs , now that has been washed off by global boss crisses ( dada USA ) the market has gone down along with the FII s selling ( shelling ) and also the gravity of indian mutual funds sell ( FEARS OF REDEMPTION) and once this triggers the market then nothing can stop the market falling by another 2000 points (wooping 25% from current level) , also if any intervention by artificial oxygen will delay the effect but fall would be more

 

[xtalk]

Re: How would market (Sensex/Nifty) perform during next week 27/10/2008 to 31/10/2008

5) After 62%, Fibnocci retracement, next level to watch out is 72% which comes around 9300.

AFAIK after 61.8% fib level there are 76.4%/78.6%, 100%, 127.2%, 161.8%, etc. to watch for. 72%? I have no idea.

78.6% of last bull market comes around 6826 (sensex) and 2100 (nifty spot). Anyway, IMO, FIIs inflow is now impossible and 1000s of hedge fund and fund of funds going bust, facing forced liquidation. One or two long white candle won't make much difference, may create more shorting opportunity for FIIs.

Let's hope we move sideways but FIIs have something else in mind.

 

[actuaryinmaking]

Re: How would market (Sensex/Nifty) perform during next week 27/10/2008 to 31/10/2008

BSE/NSE holiday for 2008

- Adding patrol on fire...two more important holiday coming up next week (incidently all on Tuesday or Thursday)...eventually this may lead to more manipulation either way..more time for panic/cooling-down/fear/hope/world-indexes movement/FII planning/FM/PM planning etc etc...

Surely BULLs thoughts/needs will give some fight to factual BEARs...over this breaks...

What a time....

 

[DJ123143]

Re: How would market (Sensex/Nifty) perform during next week 27/10/2008 to 31/10/2008

Hi Friends

I Think Market(sensex) May Consolidate @5729 which is 200DMA on Monthly Charts as above All given by Idea AW10 is perfect and i agree with him, i think market will give more surprises...
Thanks DJ