I can help you with stock chart reading

[mahmeds2000]

hi vvonteru

thanks for giving a good advice for reading the basics also the location for the solution on this forum. About the ws industries it is (W S Industries (India) Ltd. - (BSE)) if u find it pl. give the view. is it good to buy the following stock and what is the target and buy price.
1. ITC
2. relience industry
3. Satyam computers
4. kirloskar oil engines
5. JSW steel
6. Kirloskar Brother
Thanks

My take home from the stocks below is: Avoid low priced stocks or low volume stocks. Their price can be easily manipulated by Market Makers (code name MM - ever heard of them?).

rank - I have not found anything interesting (vsnl is ok) from the list you have given for immediate trading.

vsnl
- look for pull back and 450 for support. When then happens, enter above the pull back.

orchid
There is resistance at 375 from Sep 05. I would wait for it cross that point.

infosys
- Cannot enter now. Let it take out 3100 resistance like vsnl did. Then wait for pull back (should not go below 3100 technically) to enter.

fed. bank
- Avoid. Going nowhere from last 1 year (between 150 and 200). Before that, it gapped from 400 to 150 on 2004 Nov.


Pidilite and Patni computers (my id is v v o n t e r u.)

Pidilite - Hopefull you didn't buy it before it dropped from 750 to 100. This is cat or dog right now. The reason I say that is, it is a different kind of play when you trade them. Basically, you are picking the bottom of the chart. Risk is high, so as the reward. But, you have to ask yourself the question. Is there momentum with these stocks compared to stocks that are making 52 week high like nifty with no resistence upside. The stock has huge/abundant/other synonyms resistance on the top just 9 months back. Those guys who bought at 750 are waiting for the stock to come up to sell. Any nice rally will see a sell off in this stock. On the positive side, chart is clean for last 6 months

Patni computers - Avoid. Not a momentum stock.

1. skf india - Not a momentum stock. But, 50 EMA support is holding constantly. If you are in it, trail the stop (275 looks a good point).
2. PRISM CEMENTS LTD - Just came out of resistance at 28.60. Avoid low priced stocks in future.
3. w s industry - I could only find data between Jan00 and Feb00. Does this company still exist?
4. moschip - Bad chart. You are wasting my time. On a 1 to 10 scale, these stocks are 0.
5. KANISHK STEEL INDUST - Ditto
6. marksuns pharma - I don't know what to say
7. gujrat industrial ( i have got 25 % loss holidin it from last 7 month) - What are you waiting for? If a bull market cannot lift this stock, are you waiting for selloff?
8. banswara syntax - I have nothing to say
9. ginni filament - Oh God

You observe something from the above. Its not the problem with the stocks. Its a problem with you. Please stop trading. Go back to basis. Read books. Come back later. You can always make money. But, at least do your homework. Know what you are doing. Winning or Losing is not the question. They are part of the risk of trading. But, if you follow certain methodology, mentally prepared, follow specific money management, you have chance of reducing losses versus winnings. Even if you lose, at least you can take home that you gave your best shot. What I mean to say is, You Will Not Feel Like a Loser.

Please refer to this thread earlier for info on books, methodology and money management.

 

[vvonteru]

(W S Industries (India) Ltd. - (BSE)) - Coudn't find it. Attach 2 charts. 1 - All data chart. 2 - 6 month chart.

You might be wondering why I want all data chart. Before I trade a stock, I like to know its history. I always look at all the data. If there is noise in daily data, I look at weekly chart to get feel for the stock. Each stock is different like each of us. They display different patterns. By looking previous data, you can rationalize how they acted before. So, you can decide how its going to doing now.

1. ITC
I was looking at this other day. This is one hell of a stock. I love it. Wait for a pull back for atleast 2 to 4 days. You would expect the market to do the same. Go long with a stop (1 or 2 rupees) above 2nd day pull back high. If it doesn't hit, try the next day.

2. relience industry - Avoid. Compare to ITC
3. Satyam computers - Chart is great.
4. kirloskar oil engines - This is good chart. But going parabolic right now. How long this is going to last is of question.
5. JSW steel - Avoid
6. Kirloskar Brother - I am not sure this got split or fell down from 2400 to 400 . Avoid.

Disclaimer: My suggestions are based on Trading versus Investing. Please take them at your own risk. Above all, as anything else, I feel trading is common sense. If you can make sense out of what I say, use my advise. If not, avoid.

 

[shivaraja]

Excellent words ...and yes i'm a beginner now...i have always wondered that the market is overheated and so are the stocks being overbought. Since Sep 2005 i was cautious and waited for a consolidation before entering indian market...there was no big correction and eventually entered the market in Jan only to see it keeps rising and rising...

Is it a safe idea to have 50% exposure and 50% in cash..at the current market situation?

Thanks.

You observe something from the above. Its not the problem with the stocks. Its a problem with you. Please stop trading. Go back to basis. Read books. Come back later. You can always make money. But, at least do your homework. Know what you are doing. Winning or Losing is not the question. They are part of the risk of trading. But, if you follow certain methodology, mentally prepared, follow specific money management, you have chance of reducing losses versus winnings. Even if you lose, at least you can take home that you gave your best shot. What I mean to say is, You Will Not Feel Like a Loser.

Please refer to this thread earlier for info on books, methodology and money management.

 

[vvonteru]

Is it a safe idea to have 50% exposure and 50% in cash..at the current market situation?

You can take 3 approaches.
1) Don't predetermine the market. Let the market determine by its movement. This is what I mean

a. If the index is going up, the stocks are not doing the same, you should find less no of entries. Obviously, you will be trading less.
b. If the index is going up, the stocks are going down and you are getting stopped out. Isn't market telling you something.

2. If you are not confortable with the market (indicators are telling you or for whatever reasons), reduce the position size. Lets say your money management formula requires you to trade 200 shares. You would only trade 50% (or whatever) of the position, i.e., 100 shares. You can take this approach if you feel the market conditions are not ideal.

3. Your idea is not bad either. Nobody would penalize you for not trading. Atleast we know that for sure, you would not lose money by not trading.

But, just because something is going up doesn't mean it is going to come down pretty soon. I want to stress on "pretty soon". Thats the issue with the stock market. Anybody can predict whether some xyz stock will go up or down. The question is when? Time is the question. That is why peers suggest not to try to pick top or bottom of the stock. Trail your stops and let the market tell by its movement whether you need to be there or not.

Disclaimer: My suggestions are based on Trading versus Investing. Please take them at your own risk. Above all, as anything else, I feel trading is common sense. If you can make sense out of what I say, use my advise. If not, avoid.

 

[punterji]

Hi vonteru,

I am a new member to the group. Joined yesterday. I was looking into the forums and have found your posts very useful. Thanks a lot for sharing your knowledge.

Can you tell me your analysis on

1. Kesoram Industries
2. GATI Ltd
3. Era Constructions.

Thanks in Advance.

 

[vvonteru]

1. Kesoram Industries
Looks like it is stepping up gears. You just lost an entry when it pulled back to 190. Wait for next entry.

2. GATI Ltd
Avoid.

3. Era Constructions.
Wait for it to cross 305 and successfully pull back and retest 305.


Disclaimer: My suggestions are based on Trading versus Investing. Please take them at your own risk. Above all, as anything else, I feel trading is common sense. If you can make sense out of what I say, use my advise. If not, avoid.

 

[chopra]

Dear vvonteru,
Great to have you in this forum.
Your posts are great, very informative and very detailed analysis.

Could you advise me regarding.

1-Hyderabad Industries@ 230 CMP 408. It is just sliding down and down from last few weeks.
2-Essar Steel@55 CMP 44. entered into it very long time more than 10 years back.
3-Pioneer Investment@40 CMP 47.

Thanks a lot.
Regards,
Ashish

 

[punterji]

Thank you very much for your tips...

1. Kesoram Industries
Looks like it is stepping up gears. You just lost an entry when it pulled back to 190. Wait for next entry.

2. GATI Ltd
Avoid.

3. Era Constructions.
Wait for it to cross 305 and successfully pull back and retest 305.


Disclaimer: My suggestions are based on Trading versus Investing. Please take them at your own risk. Above all, as anything else, I feel trading is common sense. If you can make sense out of what I say, use my advise. If not, avoid.

 

[vvonteru]

Note: Please do not enter any of the stocks below. If you have existing position, then read below.

1-Hyderabad Industries@ 230 CMP 408. It is just sliding down and down from last few weeks.

400 is still a support. Tried 3 times. Volume when going up was more. While during 6 months of trading range, volume was light. This means, hopefully, this is just a breather before another leg up. Look at MACD. It is improving. May not mean much in this context. 400 support is more critical. See how the triangle is forming. There will be decision soon either side (hopefully based on volume, macd, its going up). Trail the stop before 400, giving some room.

2-Essar Steel@55 CMP 44. entered into it very long time more than 10 years back.

I could see maximum till 14 Feb 2002. I can't understand you have this stock for 10 years. Any way, this is similar to the previous one. On going up, the volume was up. Last 6 months of downtrend, the volume is low. What that means, there is hope. Lets trail the stop at 35 for right now.


3-Pioneer Investment@40 CMP 47.
Avoid these low priced stocks. I can't even read the chart.


Disclaimer: My suggestions are based on Trading versus Investing. Please take them at your own risk. Above all, as anything else, I feel trading is common sense. If you can make sense out of what I say, use my advise. If not, avoid.

 

[drmukul]

I am new to this group. But have been trading for 2 years now. I do swing trading. I see lot of posts where they need suggestion on buy/sell. I can help.

Give me a stock. I will tell you what to do - Buy/ Short (I don't know why some one would do now, unless if you are day trading) . Or If you are already in some stock and want to know whether to sell, I can help.

I do swing trading. I like site: http://www.icharts.in/home/ to start with, which I got from this group. Please take a look at: http://www.icharts.in/breadth-charts.html. The market in the hindsight will have a deeper correction (more than a pull back). So, be carefull and have stops.

Hi dear,

I am new to this business of stock trading. Could u pls. suggest me which online broker i should join? Ur valuable suggestions welcome.

Thanx,

Mukul