I can help you with stock chart reading

[kumar7]

Re: Dear VV: Rajesh export & Gitanjali gem

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Dear VV,

Thanx for your inputs!

U are picking good stocks. Thanks for sharing. Let us know how U are coming up with these stocks to help others.

There is no mystery: I look for good fundamentals, good financial results (past records); more importantly---as far as imminent share price appreciation is concerned---consistent above average volumes and good technicals (this I've started to learn recently); of course, one also needs to consider the market sentiments and the its current trend.
I've picked these things from here and there---thanks to you, Saint, Amitbe, and others!

Sorry for stating the obvious!


Thanks,
Kumar

 

[vvonteru]

Hey VV,

Any thoughts on Jaiprakash Associates? Here is a story on Moneycontrol.com about the company.

Karani told CNBC-TV18, “Jaiprakash Associates is the biggest story in the entire infrastructure space in this country. Not many people realise what kind of consolidate company JP Associate is, so would like to break it down for you. It is a 7 million tonne cement company, which is expanding to 13 million tonne. So by December 07, the company will become 13 million tonne. It is putting up another 2 million with SAIL as part of its joint venture partner where it has 75%. So net-net it will become a 15 million tonne cement company by December 07.”

He further added, “It is the largest EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) contractor in the hydroelectric power space and we believe that it is the largest and one of the best in the country. Around Rs 11,000-12,000 crore (Rs 110-120 billion) worth of orders are pending with it.”

“It has three power subsidiaries. If one takes a consolidated view this company would add around Rs 65 to JPs valuation per share. But the biggest sweetener lies in JPs Taj Expressway project. This project could become one of the largest property stories in the country also. We believe that the Taj Expressway Project, which is 160 km expressway project. It is to be built by JP from Agra to Noida. They have a right to collect toll for 36 years. But the biggest story in the JP lies in the 6000 acre of land, which has been allotted to them to develop this project. So the BOT project, which JP is doing, is going to get revenue for 36 years from operating the highway.”

“But the biggest windfall for JP will come from the point of 6,000 acres of developmental land, which has been given to this company. It is a bit subdued at this level. But we have confirmed understanding that this 6000-acre of land would be available. Just to put it into perspective, as far the valuation is concerned the market cap of JP is around Rs 8500 crore (Rs 85 billion) as of date and if I put a value to this land it would be Rs 18,000 crore (Rs 180 billion) only on the land value. So they are talking about almost double the size of the entire marketcap of the value of the land, which has been allotted to JP. So it could be a bigger blockbuster story, which we believe is a great play on the infrastructure and the property sector in this country.”

“We have a target of Rs 750 till JP expressway comes into play. Once the JP expressway comes into play we believe it could be Rs 1250 per share of the JP. Because what you said companies do not get value on land but the kind of land bank this company will have and the developmental rights and going forward the developmental projects, this company will do along with a cement play, which is almost 15 million tonne cement, which will make it a third largest cement company almost in this country. We believe JP is highly under valued its level and from now on in next one and a half years it could be a multi-bagger story in the making.”

It seems good fundamentally but just wanted your thoughts on the TA perspective as well. Could you please let me know both your short and long-term views on the stock? Thanks a bunch.

BTW, congratulations on a 1000 posts.

Thanks.

Short Term (I used daily time frame for 6 months duration)
-- Looks good. Today, it came out of the pull back decisively with good volume.

Long Term (I used Weelky time frame for 1 year duration)
-- Came out of the pull back on weekly too. MACD crossed up and histogram is showing positive indicating up trend. One thing that worried me is the volume. Last 5 weeks, volume has been decreasing.

I am a short term player. I am not good at saying some stock will be there at X position in 3/6 months. I believe any stock can go anywhere as long as good environment exists. U trail the stop. If it goes up, move your stop up.

Kumar,

Thanks for sharing info.

 

[rangarajan]

dear VV,
congrats for having completed 1000.It shows,how forum members are attracted towards you & the courtesey reciprocated by you.keep it up.
ranga

 

[chachi]

I like ERACONS. Nice price and volume action.

HCC looks good too. Are we back in into the bull market mode again? Where U see everything propping up!!!

Some stocks are joining the party late. Buying at the beginning of the trend is the low risk high reward play. Ofcourse, determining the beginning is the key. I use crossover to determine the beginning. There may be other ways U could explore.

Hi VV,

Thanks for your views. I started to use MACD (3,10,1) for the trending movements as explored and revealed by timtomlee.

It gives us a good early indication of the bull run. More over we can make use of it to come out of stock at good profit or at very minor loss as it gives an early indication.

I am simply following the signal line to move up the zero to buy and when it comes down below zero we can sell it. Stoploss can be worked out at about 2-3% down of the closing price, when the signal line is below zero. Studied many stocks with this and getting fairly good results. When the signal line crosses up above zero, all other indicators after some lag are making positive moves.

Thanks to timtomlee and you.

Regards
chachi

 

[vvonteru]

dear VV,
congrats for having completed 1000.It shows,how forum members are attracted towards you & the courtesey reciprocated by you.keep it up.
ranga

Thanks. I will take this opportunity to recap what I have given and where we want to take this thread in future. Here are the most important aspects I think I have given.

1. Be consistent in whatever U do. Have a trading plan.

Trading is a small cycle. Write down the trading plan and following it consistently. Do not be swayed by the market. Market always lures into taking different paths. Do not get swayed by it. Your trading plan is the Tree which you use it as support in the cyclone of the market.
Do you know about Odysseus and Sirens story. See the attached image. The mast is your plan. Sirens are the market. You drowning in the sea represents loses.

2. Use Position Size for Money Management.

Use the calculator I attached earlier. Without using this, there is no hope for your success. Remember, with one Win you are not going to the bank and taking your money. With one loss, you are not going bankrupt. If you are serious, you are there day in day out for many years. Position sizing with constant risk is the key to winning on Long Term.

3. Stop Loss and Profit Taking

Devise a strategy for exits. Exits are the key to your winning. If you look around on Traderji, most people are bothered about entries. We are looking at the wrong place.

4. Continue to read.

Give yourself many years. Accompany trading with reading. Continue to experiment and improve.

As I suggested in the recent replies, from now on, I want this thread to have your viewpoint. Specially, I like to hear contrary view points. This is what I want to know.

1. I like to know views on pull back methodology.

2. New techniques for Stop Loss, Profit Taking methodologies.

3. When I suggest a stock, I want your pros and cons of taking the trade.

Basically, I want to avoid TUNNEL view. Lets share and improve our trading.


Consider EXIDEIND for entry.

 

[GKHERA99]

vv
congrats for great site

 

[chachi]

Hello VV,

I think one can consider entry in REL at present. As you have said earlier all sectors seems to be joining the trend. It is the turn of SUGAR industries now.

Tommorrow we can consider entry in sugar sectors as they seems to be making nice moves today (if the movement as of now maintains till the end of the day), mainly BALRAMCHIN, KCPSUGIND looks to be good buy. For BAJAJHIND one may have to wait another trading day I think.

Please give your views on these.

Regards
chachi

 

[champs]

Hi VV

Please give your views on following:-

Rajesh [email protected]
Triveni Engg.@ 78.50

Regards
Rajeev

 

[vvonteru]

vv
congrats for great site

Thanks.

Reliance
-- Price action is ok. Volume is not. See weekly chart for 1 year duration. U will see the volume reducing every week.

BALRAMCHIN
-- I would wait for better price action. 120 is resistance.

KCPSUGIND
-- Same story.

BAJAJHIND
-- 400 resistance. Whats Ur strategy?

Rajesh [email protected]
-- U pulled the trigger at right point. Have a stop and wait. 200 is the resistance.

Triveni Engg.@ 78.50
-- More of sideways action. I would come out break even. If you are interested in the stock for fundamental reasons, I would wait for it clear the trading range between 70 and 90.

 

[game4trade]

Hi VV,

Please share your views on 3iinfotech.

It has cleared prev higher high at 175 and vol is also building up. Also it have crossed Support at 166 level yesterday.

Would appreciate you point of view.

And congrates on completing 1000 posts

Rgds