Incisive Nifty Trend Analysis

a1b1trader

Well-Known Member
not able to buy ....Limit order did not work.
Who says!
I always buy/sell using limit orders. Though sometime it remains unexecuted. Then you always, can modify your limit order as per market rates.
Market order may be good as per your risk management.
 

trade4putuval

Well-Known Member
Wow, that was a day yesterday!
...

Gap Filling:
In 30-min chart, there was a gap up opening between 5648 and 5685 in the first week of November. I was waiting for the gap to get filled before I could give any view on nifty. But nifty made a low of 5665.75. So I assume today or on Thursday it could make a low of 5650 before deciding the next trend, down or up (Global factors to support)!
Finally, the gap got filled. But then a small gap got created between 13th and 16th November (5661 and 5650).

30-min chart has moved below 30, indicating a short term uptrend before continuing the bear trend. So we can target 5661 for the short term before any meaningful downtrend.

But lets look at the other factors below too.

...

315 Trend Change
In Daily, at the moment, it is at the threshold of 315 strategy. 3ema is near 15 ema and on verge of a crossover below 15 ema indicating bearish trend. If this happens, the first target is 5600, which is the previous low in daily, and indicates a short term double bottom. Looking at RSI, it seems that this support will hold.
Bearish trend confirmed by 315. However, nifty left 3ema yesterday, which means the price has to touch 3ema within 3 days, 3ema stands at 5656.

In 315, there has been identification of false crossovers, that happens multiple times before actual trend begins. So this could be an instance of one such scenario. Please check for SH's threads (Author-tradewithhunter) where crossovers has been explained in great detail.

Ichimoku Daily
Also as per ichimoku, the top of cloud is 5622. Rule of ichimoku is if the price enters the cloud, there is high probability of the price touching the cloud bottom, 5487. So if nifty is to bounce back, it has to from somewhere near 5622. Another indicator in ichimoku is chikou span. This has crossed below the price action indicating bearishness.
The price entered the cloud but managed to close above the cloud. This could be an indication of major resistance being formed by the cloud to nifty price action. If you had noticed yesterday, nifty remained in that range for a very long time. We have to wait and see if the price will close inside the cloud. If yes, then as mentioned in my quote, 5487 is the next target.

Ichimoku Weekly
Tenken sen and 15 ema now stands at 5573. Kijun is still flat indicating that the price has to touch tenken. Last time tenken was touched was on 3rd September 2012. Also weekly RSI is still overbought.
Weekly charts still shows downside with tenken at 5576. So even nifty manages to reach 5660 (3ema touch and gap filling), there could be another fall to reach this price. Alternatively, if buying is seen in the markets, tenken can move up to touch the price action (very small margin).

Support
However, if a support line was to be drawn from all the previous bottoms in daily, then nifty could touch 5574. This should be a very strong support. This also coincides with the support line drawn from the previous two bottoms in weekly.
At the moment, a double bottom has formed in daily. It could be a bounce back from here. It is enter long with stop below the cloud (5617) or wait and watch.




All in all, it is a wait and watch, or a risky long till 5660, followed by a risky short till 5576. Conservatively we wait this week out and trade next week! All the best!
 

trade4putuval

Well-Known Member
failed BUY in NIFTY but purchased TATAMOTORS NOV 280 PE 1 [email protected] Rs. .....I hope its a liquid stock.....my experience with DR REDDY was bitter.
how good is this buy ?
Today is 16th of this month. Normally time decay factors into options trading after 15th.

It is always recommended to trade options in the beginning of the month or if you are sure that the spot price will give 10 to 15 percent within 2 days towards your target.

Compared to DR REDDY, Tata motors is definitely a liquid stock.:thumb:
 
@ trade4putuval

why dont u start a new thread and do u r ichimoku analysis there.
Start with some introduction about ichimoku first and later u can do u r analysis , so that complete ichimoku illeterates can follow u.

Your analysis here , will is creating confusion and mess here, why do predictions using multiple tools in a the single thread and give different forecasts? it only creates confusion among readers.
 

trdstudent

Well-Known Member
Weekly charts still shows downside with tenken at 5576.
.........a risky long till 5660, followed by a risky short till 5576. Conservatively we wait this week out and trade next week! All the best!
Hi guys.... due to office couldn't make it regular. 2day morning saw this post of trade4putuval and smile :thumb: This exactly wht i thoght and bot 4lots 5800Nov PE at 72 on 7th nov. 2day when my brokr called me after 3PM ,i simply wait for that 5570 level :D
I knw nothing about ichimoku but all I knw was if nifty brch 5600, next stop is probably 5400+/-
 

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