Informed traders : how they make their Judgment ?
- Thread starter linkon7
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I have learnt from experience that you should wait for the charts. Reason is simple - what is the chart - price! what determines your profit or loss - price! What one thinks about the news doesn't matter unless he is the one holding majority of the stock. If people think it is bad news and start to dump a stock no fundamental can save it. It might recover later but it is best to have a calculated stop loss.
In other words.. if you think a stock is stong fundamentally and it good at the current price then woundn't it be better at a lower price? So sell it now and buy when it starts moving up again. And lets says something like Satyam happens (I am not indicating fraud), you will be happy then you got out when you could.
I think it's better to be safe than sorry and another thing I learned very late - whether you are a TA or FA or anyone else buy when to stock is moving up and sell when it goes down.
In other words.. if you think a stock is stong fundamentally and it good at the current price then woundn't it be better at a lower price? So sell it now and buy when it starts moving up again. And lets says something like Satyam happens (I am not indicating fraud), you will be happy then you got out when you could.
I think it's better to be safe than sorry and another thing I learned very late - whether you are a TA or FA or anyone else buy when to stock is moving up and sell when it goes down.
I get your point and I have to say I have tried it and failed. So I choose the safer method. let me substantiate there recent news of suzlon getting a big order last month I bought suzlon immediately, by that time suzlon has rallied to 43 and was at 42.75 and then suzlon went down to 42.15 so I thought maybe I over-reacted. Later that day it came back to 42.65 so I set a sell order at 42.75 and it got sold. By the end of the day suzlon had gone to 43.5 and was about 43.2 something. It was a good 2 -2.5hrs it traded with the news out that day. The next day suzlon rose 3-4% and finally it's rally ended after a few days at 70 with news about faulty blades. This time the stock went down but then came back up a couple of days later and still trades close to the 70 level somedays.
What was expected happened but at the time I wasn't expecting. This is just one example. You can try but it is better to wait for the price action.
Have you had success with breaking news? Someother times what happens is that the good news comes first, you buy it and then the bad news hits. Happens with earnings. So I've made my decision - I will look before jumping.
Read saints thread "Teach a man to fish.."
What was expected happened but at the time I wasn't expecting. This is just one example. You can try but it is better to wait for the price action.
Have you had success with breaking news? Someother times what happens is that the good news comes first, you buy it and then the bad news hits. Happens with earnings. So I've made my decision - I will look before jumping.
Read saints thread "Teach a man to fish.."
I didnt have any success on that either.
last year i got a news that Infy 2nd qtr results would be better and a day before the news came out, i bought 2 lots at 1802. At the end of the day, it was trading at 1832. News came the next day and it was definitely better than expected. Udayan was telling every one how there will be a gap up to 2000 levels and our gr8 analyst Aswani Gujral was giving tips about how 2400 was the next resistance. I was on the 7th moon. Infy opened gap up to 1884 and then the selling started. god it was like a nightmare. Infy fell like crazy. My net connection was down, by the time i called up my broker and sold the lots, I had already lost 28,000. Infy closed below 1700 that day. It seems the dollar guidance was bad and despite the eps being raised to 101 from 95, bear markets didnt like any bad news.
Then i met this guy who traded the news and his style of play impressed me. A pure FA trader. Not an investor with 5 year time horizon. He kept his positions hedged all the time. and the volume he traded blew my mind. even the last month, he bought 900 shares of reliance (cash) at 1300 levels and bought puts as hedge. I even posted a detailed report on reliance in the webotron thread at that time.
he calls technical analyst as Tech-NIKAAL ANALyst. and if you see his calls, you'll think he is an insider. I'll post some of his live market calls sometime and you can see the pattern.
I mean, here i am thinking TA knowledge was all that a trader needs and he think's all i do is hope and pray and nothing else. He is too polite to put it that way but thats what he meant.
I am in the same boat as you are. But somehow, i feel like a frog in a well who just came to know that there is a whole new world outside the well.
last year i got a news that Infy 2nd qtr results would be better and a day before the news came out, i bought 2 lots at 1802. At the end of the day, it was trading at 1832. News came the next day and it was definitely better than expected. Udayan was telling every one how there will be a gap up to 2000 levels and our gr8 analyst Aswani Gujral was giving tips about how 2400 was the next resistance. I was on the 7th moon. Infy opened gap up to 1884 and then the selling started. god it was like a nightmare. Infy fell like crazy. My net connection was down, by the time i called up my broker and sold the lots, I had already lost 28,000. Infy closed below 1700 that day. It seems the dollar guidance was bad and despite the eps being raised to 101 from 95, bear markets didnt like any bad news.
Then i met this guy who traded the news and his style of play impressed me. A pure FA trader. Not an investor with 5 year time horizon. He kept his positions hedged all the time. and the volume he traded blew my mind. even the last month, he bought 900 shares of reliance (cash) at 1300 levels and bought puts as hedge. I even posted a detailed report on reliance in the webotron thread at that time.
he calls technical analyst as Tech-NIKAAL ANALyst. and if you see his calls, you'll think he is an insider. I'll post some of his live market calls sometime and you can see the pattern.
I mean, here i am thinking TA knowledge was all that a trader needs and he think's all i do is hope and pray and nothing else. He is too polite to put it that way but thats what he meant.
I am in the same boat as you are. But somehow, i feel like a frog in a well who just came to know that there is a whole new world outside the well.
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