Intraday Trading

[kthakker0]

24/09/2012 Monday

Hi all,

Today NF gyrated between 2 Fibonacci levels of 5705 ie 5728 and 5682 for most past of the day.

S&P lowering India's growth prospects did have some effect in today's working. Congress on one is promoting FDI in Retail, Aviation, Insurance etc. The question is How will these FDI's increase or contribute to India's growth?

Cabinet Committee is thinking of wiping out the losses of States Power Distributors in one go. (35 billion accrued losses) Why not reform them instead of bailing them and why is Congress wiping of their losses in the name of reforms? Why are they not answerable to the taxpayer who's money they are wiping off? Who will guarantee that new losses will not accrue.

Only the above 2 news has the capacity to derail the rally.

Chances of rally is alive as long as NF is above 5626 and it does have multiple support at different levels ie from 5680-5626.

Cutting of PLR by RBI in it's Oct review is confirmed with SBI cutting its PLR and this will drive speculation very high.

Profit booking cannot be ruled out as it the last week.

Tomorrow's range is 5703-5665 trend setter is 5575. Close above 5705 is a must to see higher levels

Bye

 

[timepass]

Some other bad news :
1) Kharif crop production to be 10% lower than normal (inflationary)
2) The power finance companies bailout will mean increase in power tariff (inflationary)

 

[kthakker0]

25/09/2012 Tuesday

Hi all,

Media and all market participants are talking about rally that should reach not only greater heights but some are also claiming it to cross the previous high in the days to come.

We were ready for the rally from Friday and then subsequently news followed to confirm the same.

S&P article is not discounted but swept aside under the carpet. But prudence signals not to ignore it but to keep it handy.

No one is talking about growth, but reforms, and reforms takes time to be implemented. And India has no time to implement it as it will be washed away when the new gov forms as most of the reforms are protested in one pretext or the other.

The people talking about reforms are non other then who's money is caught in the bear's grip ie Banker's (2G, Coal, SME's etc) the very same bankers are flush with money but cannot lend it as there are no takers due to inflation and high interest rate.

So in this context the rally may be one of the many balloons which we have experienced many times in the past.

No matter weather balloon or genuine rally we are always ready to seize the opportunity.

As written yesterday as long as 5626 is held with multiple support from 5680 the rally should happen, as gov wants to reduce it's fiscal burden before "E" bomb is ignited.

Bye

 

[Bewinner]

"E" Bomb? could not get you sir

 

[kthakker0]

"E" Bomb? could not get you sir

"Election" Bomb

 

[timepass]

"Election" Bomb

For the index, another "E" bomb is ticking. The "Expiry" bomb . That's going to cause quite a few wild movements.

 

[preethnfo]

OH , there is no "Economic" Bomb.



BTW, what is your system kthakkar ji, any information or excel, afl if provided please give info.

 

[kthakker0]

For the index, another "E" bomb is ticking. The "Expiry" bomb . That's going to cause quite a few wild movements.

Quite Right. Normally we forget to notice important things which are right in front of our eyes.

Your "E" bomb is a very Good substitute for my "E" bomb.

Do keep writing...

Bye

 

[manish9300]

Nice analysis kthakkarji.
my view is that any sustainable genuine rally wouldnt be possible unless interest rate start declining.For this to happen inflation has to be tamed which congress has shown no intention whatsoever of doing.So enjoy these bear market rallies and make investments only if one is very long term player.This market is meant for traders only and that you have shown how should be done very well through this thread.Keep up the good work.

 

[kthakker0]

25/09/2012 Tuesday

Hi all,

Tomorrow's range is 5705 - 5666 trend setter 5680 and with timepass "Expiry" Bomb the lower levels can and should be used to add or initiate new trade, but with a strict SL at 5626.


Bye