Is BSE at 7500 possible within 1 year ?

[pkjha30]

I was tempted to post this image here w.r.t target of Sensex. This is a Chart of sensex since 1999.

Tried to add some lines here and there.Don't know if renu would approve of it.

 

[jdm]

cheer up guys

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjYvVhrlqkE

 

[raosrinivas]

CRR Rate reduction. When rupee was 44 i said it will cross 50 , right now we are around 48. Only new money can prop up the stock market that that's the reason for SEBI's flip-flop over Participatory notes. PN's means indians can plow back their unaccounted money into stock markets. Right now foreign institutions need capital to stay afloat, and since the P/E ratio's of their own countries come down it would be more attractive to put their money in their own countries.

We used to spend 10,000 crores on fertilizer subsidy three years back, next financial year we will spend 120,000 on fertilizer subsidy, so apart from oil even fertilizers have become a major import , so it is putting pressure on rupee.

the next goal post is sensex 10k , i know there are many more die-hard believers of sensex here. eventually reality will sink in.

thanks
Srinivas

 

[columbus]

ONE year back ,similar question used to be asked IS IT POSSIBLE FOR NIFTY BE AT 7500 ???,now NIFTY is substituted by BSE.

 

[raosrinivas]

ONE year back ,similar question used to be asked IS IT POSSIBLE FOR NIFTY BE AT 7500 ???,now NIFTY is substituted by BSE.

Actually this thread is started in 2007 April, which is 1 year and 6 months. i had confidence about 7500 even when we were at 20k.

 

[pkjha30]

I still have till 4th April 2008, to get my prediction right.

My initial target time of 1 year will be apr 04,2008 for sensex to be at 7500. does not look it's going to happen in the given time frame. but i am very confident amit29 will get his wish fullfilled .

Given sufficient time even this target is possible. It is not something which is sacred. The question is why 7500?
Nomura during last crash in 2006 predicted this target and could not achieve it. It stopped at around 9000 . I think mahmeds correctly given levels in this thread.

If market fall below 12200 then lower level 11700-11065-8800 finally 7500 is also possible. but if it not violate 12200 then ready for the next bull run

Ahmed

So now target as per this level stands at 11700-11065-8800 and 7500 is very much possible. The area around 10000 is the zone of struggle where you will see major fight. If it is held then period of sideways movement would be seen. Else lot of supply would come from long term holder who would scamper to exit at this level. This also means that more than 110,000 crores would be sucked out by FIIs which was invested during 2006 and 2007. In such a situation I would say target should be 5500-4800 which was previous struggle zone. Timeline is extendable as per convenience.

However, Traders should not worry as saint has advised.

Waiting?

Go long in an uptrend,my friend.Short the downtrend if you can.........but waiting for 7500???!!

Saint

pk

 

[sreedharkreddy]

by next september - october your dreams might just come true so be in cash reserves

 

[raosrinivas]

There are 2 cities that i know like the back of my hand, first Hyderabad India, second Chicago US. Many times, i posted that a single family home(with land) costs $300,000 in chicago and it costs the same or more in hyderabad city.

realty in India is in for a reality check. as i said we have just started. eventually reality sinks in.

thanks
Srinivas

 

[raosrinivas]

Giving out and losing real-money, to make paper money is not a good idea. FII's were net sellers to a tune of 1000cr on wednesday. the FM and the domestic mutual funds(probably belonging to govt banks) trying to put a floor on the stock market are buying into this with money invested by people in the mutual funds. it is a dis-service to the people who put their money in those mutual funds.

People have already written DOW 7000. These actions of DII's will only serve one purpose, the FII's will be able to sell what they have at a profit. DII's will take those losses into their books in future, by providing a support. Selling will not stop while there is unrealized profit to be booked.

Srinivas

 

[pkjha30]

Its rather easy to be Positive in Uptrend and negative in downtrend. Just a reflection of Greed and Fear, two basic factors that govern any human enterprise. Its information,knowledge and wisdom that helps us in overcoming these primal instincts.

Just as there is no cogent argument for Sensex 7500 , like so there is no argument as to why DII should not invest.

They may be positive and looking at the longer term perspective.May be there would be some sideways movement and market may like to find its level , near 10000 or at 7500. These are good investment level for long term perspective. Those who don't believe in DIIs investing in market are likely to take money out, nobody is stopping them. Since that is ,clearly, not happening market is oversold in the intermediate term perspective and the outcome would be reflected in majority actions each taken independently. I think overall sentiment is that of fear in short term but optimistic in long term.

It is my two cents that market would find its hold and stay near 10000 in the current situation. But 7500 is more lucrative for me and I would jump in whole hog if that happens.These are the levels that I was waiting for since 2005-06 for second rush of investment.

pk