Is BSE at 7500 possible within 1 year ?

[raosrinivas]

heard a story when i was small that a king was granted a wish where.....whatever he touched turned GOLD....& sadly he touched his son....

it could have been worse than that:

 

[amitt29]

it could have been worse than that:

He could have touched sudoku1 !

 

[pshirurkar]

Let the king touch sensex with both the hands

 

[raosrinivas]

When we hit the bottom atleast 25% of the investors/traders would have vowed to never again invest in stock market and never visit a stock forum in their life time. right now we have 80% of the people calling bottom and there is a bottom thread every day, so obviously we are not at a bottom.

US market is holding on, but i am very skeptical about it. i have a reason to be skeptical. The reserve money market fund with $64Billions have made a loss and faced redemptions. the fund has halted all redemptions indefinitely and not paying back the customers saying some accounting glitch. Money market funds are almost same as cash instruments. I doubt if the market is being held up by halting redemptions at most of the institutions.

i have seen bear markets before and have seen layoff's in companies that i worked. NO BEAR MARKET CAN END BEFORE WE SEE IT's EFFEcT ON THE MAIN ECONOMY. i did not read in newspapers till now that some project construction was stopped because of lack of funds, so we have not yet seen proportionate effect on the main economy, i will say we are very far from the bottom.

we might have seen a leg up, but definitely not bottom in my view. next leg down will be more interesting.

 

[nansrired]

NO BEAR MARKET CAN END BEFORE WE SEE IT's EFFEcT ON THE MAIN ECONOMY. i did not read in newspapers till now that some project construction was stopped because of lack of funds, so we have not yet seen proportionate effect on the main economy, i will say we are very far from the bottom.

we might have seen a leg up, but definitely not bottom in my view. next leg down will be more interesting.

Stock Markets are considered to be ahead of real market(economy). After bottom is reached in the stock market one will see the bottom in real economy from 6-12 months time. I could be wrong but this is what I Have read from successful investors.

 

[raosrinivas]

Stock Markets are considered to be ahead of real market(economy). After bottom is reached in the stock market one will see the bottom in real economy from 6-12 months time. I could be wrong but this is what I Have read from successful investors.

yes,stock markets are ahead of the real economy, that's why real estate is still not as bad as realty stocks, in a way the real economy is still in the boom mode. so we will see all this in the real economy. don't be impatient, and from what i see you are thinking v shaped recovery, 1 day market down , sees the bottom and zooms up. sorry but that will not happen the bottom will be there for 1-2 yrs.

 

[nansrired]

yes,stock markets are ahead of the real economy, that's why real estate is still not as bad as realty stocks, in a way the real economy is still in the boom mode. so we will see all this in the real economy. don't be impatient, and from what i see you are thinking v shaped recovery, 1 day market down , sees the bottom and zooms up. sorry but that will not happen the bottom will be there for 1-2 yrs.

I am not having any expectations about the markets. What I understood in stock markets is not to have any expectation but be realistic.
I recently read Ben Graham's Intelligent Invester and from that I understood that stock markets are ahead of real markets.

I am just a learner of stock markets.So keep posting your valuable comments.

For real estate I have a different take. In India since middle class is huge I don't think demand for housing and real estate will ever go down. Yes their will be slumps of 1-2 years but they continue to raise but definitely the growth will not be like the past 10 years which was unprecedented.

 

[raosrinivas]

For real estate I have a different take. In India since middle class is huge I don't think demand for housing and real estate will ever go down. Yes their will be slumps of 1-2 years but they continue to raise but definitely the growth will not be like the past 10 years which was unprecedented.

you can increase and decrease the middle class by increasing and decreasing money supply. in the short term it works. Build a similar house in New York, Mumbai , an indian village and another in a Forest, sell it. i do not expect that you will get the same price. but if you take 10 gms of gold and sell it in the above 4 places you will get the same price . what is the difference and why ?

 

[cheeku]

Entirely different things. Can not be compared at all. Why to talk of forest; within a city the prices differ a lot wrt real estate depending upon the location/facilities/road network and no of other factors. Even within a locality the prices of site falling on 60' road or main road will be much higher than the site falling on 20' road or interior road.If we go in more detail then the East facing plots will fetch more price than those facing South(as per Vastu).
On the other hand gold is a cash money which can be sold off within minutes at market price but if you want to sell off a property in haste you will get very less than the prevailing market price.

 

[nansrired]

you can increase and decrease the middle class by increasing and decreasing money supply. in the short term it works. Build a similar house in New York, Mumbai , an indian village and another in a Forest, sell it. i do not expect that you will get the same price. but if you take 10 gms of gold and sell it in the above 4 places you will get the same price . what is the difference and why ?

We cannot compare developed countries (like US) with developing countries (like India). If we divide land by population also we can see the ratio is far far less in INDIA. Also if even 1% population comes into middle class that means 1 crore population. Emerging markets definitely (especially BRIC) will follow different set of rules.