Its a Bear Market and not correction

[anjubhatia]

My 2 bits
Any phase Bull/Bear is unimportant for a Trader:=

1)Those who traded with Longs in a roaring Bull phase had a very nice time,becoz even with a RANDOM entry ,if we holded we got good return & obviously Equated those Wins with our Superior Intelligence as a Trader & gloated.Now we will be seperated from MEN & suddenly all our Inflated confidence has started brewing a suspicion & gnawing at the back of mind.Plz wait we will now see ,after another 400 points fall (if happens) in Nifty, all of us will start saying LONG TERM ,becoz we know ,deeply embedded in our Mind that ,Price will definitely COME BACK ,hence only strategy is HOLD & HOLD.
All TAnalyst's only ESCAPE route is to increase the Time horizon.
Now if i am a Trader & has to pay my monthly dues from trading a/c it is absolutely necessary to EARN every month & HOLD cant be an Option.
So for Traders ,we cant Sit for the Mkt to stabilize or to come to absolute cheap super attractive price to Enter.Hence it becomes un-important whether Bull or Bear ,we will have to perform with Longs & with Shorts it is more EASY nowadays.

2)To the protagonist of Bear phase (than Correction),i have 1 simple question ,we all know from when this Bull phase started,now plz calculate the NUMBER of Yrs of Bull phase,for a BEAR phase how much % of that NUMBER of Yrs is minimum required.
If at all this is a BEAR phase then only 2008 or upto 2010 is not sufficient for the Bear phase to end.
So it would be Prudent to watch until the Monthly chart confirms that,moreover if at all that phase starts it is not going to end soon so why are we jumping to a conclusion let Price guide us.

3)We are presently in Down mode that is confirmed.

Asish
N.B. Only to remind that in 'Hold' it is not always Win Win ,plz recollect the Price of 1 share of ACC or Satyam in Harshad Mehta times.

respected ashish da,
really u r great teacher & trader.
i m highly highly impressed by the way u teach us. ur communication way is marvellous.
thats all wat i cn say.
fr u i hv short of gud words....coz u r too great from words.

 

[prakashumapathi]

I think all have experianced bear market between 1997 to 1999. If we compare indian economy between 1997 to 1999 and now i can say that we are in bear market at present.
Prakash

 

[oxusmorouz]

I think all have experianced bear market between 1997 to 1999. If we compare indian economy between 1997 to 1999 and now i can say that we are in bear market at present.
Prakash

Based on what data?

 

[kkseal]

Whatever the data it must have all changed in 8 days

 

[Linus]

Whatever the data it must have all changed in 8 days

The temperature in Mumbai and The Black Swan...

s s

 

[rkgoyal_98]

Hi all,

Another viewpoint from experts (Tom)

Beyond Western Europe]

The [India National Nifty Index] has slipped below its 8-month exponential moving average. This development was a false bearish signal in April 2005, but the record of the Nifty respecting this level in a bull market is so consistent that I have to take it seriously now. In addition, I can count 13 subwaves within wave (3) on the monthly line chart and the completion of 13 waves would make a top likely. If wave (3) has peaked, the decline could easily continue down towards 4364 in wave (4).

 

[makarand.mone]

Hello Everone,

I was not active for last many days because i didnt want to jump to a conclusion but todays' fall has confirmed that its not a mere correction but after many years the bull market is under threat, and we can continue to be in a bear market for atleast 6 months - 1 year and the prices will break badly, all the players,long, medium or short term should keep in mind to short or sell the market not to buy.

For technical players, weekly close below 4900 nifty should confirm the trend.

If we are lucky we may escape with only 1-2 mnth of correction,but looks unlikely.

Anyways if i get any signal that bear move has ended, i will keep you informed

Regards

I Agree.
Good recognition of trend there.

 

[Venkat123]

About 20% correction from peak is considered a bear market. I'm thinking correction will last max of 5 months. Even after the corrrection it is going to take a few years to get back to 21K again.
If this turns out to be a multi-year correction, then you better dig your bunker and and store all the food and water you can. Don't forget to store some gold and a few guns.

Above is just an opinion.

 

[Czar]

"About 20% correction from peak is considered a bear market." - mostly all corrections in this bull market have been 20/30%

 

[pkjha30]

"About 20% correction from peak is considered a bear market." - mostly all corrections in this bull market have been 20/30%

Bull's Eye

Pankaj