KISS like McGrath
- Thread starter Ajax
- Start date
- Status
Dear opensky 
These 3 stocks - PRAJ , M&M & SENSEX has re-affirmed the power & validity of Wolfe wave.....
No matter what the trend , Wolfe can behave as expected...
M&M is going up & up in bullish mkt conditions. Identification of WW allowed u to catch it right at the bottom "along" with the flow in of 'smart money' before crowd moves in.
In same bullish mkt conditions ... PRAJ is going down hill. Again recognition of WW allowed u to move out along with outgoing 'smart money' . Also u could short it right at the top with low risk.
Behaviour of SENSEX today only highlights importance of Stop Loss.
As has been said earlier , a blow away rally could negate the bearish WW.
Gap up opening did exactly that there by triggering SL. Just see how small was the risk against a potentially big reward. Friday the 13th eh.
WW is no holy grail and every one cant be right all the time.
All is not lost as yet. If sensex comes below 1-2-3 line bearish WW is on.
Wolfe waves tracks "SMART MONEY"".
Wave followers (elliot or wolfe) go by what waves tell them..
Triggers & conditions will follow...>> Ofcourse SL are always there as insurance.
I hope it clears the matter a bit.
Regards
Ajax
PS: BTW Sensex has created a island today. Could it lead to Evening star formation.... just being optimist in favour of pessimistic bearish WW..
Thanx John and all the believers
These 3 stocks - PRAJ , M&M & SENSEX has re-affirmed the power & validity of Wolfe wave.....
No matter what the trend , Wolfe can behave as expected...
M&M is going up & up in bullish mkt conditions. Identification of WW allowed u to catch it right at the bottom "along" with the flow in of 'smart money' before crowd moves in.
In same bullish mkt conditions ... PRAJ is going down hill. Again recognition of WW allowed u to move out along with outgoing 'smart money' . Also u could short it right at the top with low risk.
Behaviour of SENSEX today only highlights importance of Stop Loss.
As has been said earlier , a blow away rally could negate the bearish WW.
Gap up opening did exactly that there by triggering SL. Just see how small was the risk against a potentially big reward. Friday the 13th eh.
WW is no holy grail and every one cant be right all the time.
All is not lost as yet. If sensex comes below 1-2-3 line bearish WW is on.
Wolfe waves tracks "SMART MONEY"".
Wave followers (elliot or wolfe) go by what waves tell them..
Triggers & conditions will follow...>> Ofcourse SL are always there as insurance.
I hope it clears the matter a bit.
Regards
Ajax
PS: BTW Sensex has created a island today. Could it lead to Evening star formation.... just being optimist in favour of pessimistic bearish WW..
Thanx John and all the believers
Last edited:
when you have such weekly wolf waves, you need to give time for the pattern to develop... say a week.. Theres a difference of nearly 20 points in daily and weekly charts for point 5
Also, in May'06 wolf wave bearish pattern, there was a 3-3.5% violation above 1-3 line for 5 days and on 6th trading session it entered below the 1-3 line after creating an extended point 5.
Here we are talking of elongated bearish wave.. So we need to give some time for it to develop a clear cut signal instead of going gung - ho and calling the market bear... IN May'06 it took only 23 sessions to develop this wave ant on 18th session itself the wave line was vioated.. Look at the volatility we had.. Until the last bear starts believing that there is no bearish sign, all falls need to be bought by the stronger hands. Till now, all trading forums have been calling a wolf wave- Now when the entire world believes this wave formation, why shall we have it ?
Lets loook at the following:
Wave 1 from 3617 (2/4/07) to 4217.90 (26/04/2007) (nearly 200% of the fall from 3901.75(23/03/07) -3617)
Wave 2 from 4217.90 to 3981.15 (11/05/07) (nearly 38.2% retracement of wave 1)
Wave 3 from 3981.15 to 4362.95 (04/06/07) (nearly 161.8% retracement of wave3)
Wave 4 from 4362.95 to 4100.80 (12/06/07) (nearly 61.8% retracement of Wave 4)
Wave 5 From 4100.80 to 4213.90 (13/07/07) (Still incomplete) (Upper targets could be 4525 (161.8%) 4563 (176.4%) 4625 (200%) ??)
Lets consider wave 5 to terminate near 4525 then 61.8% wud be 4258, @ 4563 it wud be 4280, @ 4625 it wud be 4300)
(Even the Astro Effect Shall take some time as and when the planets keep changing the degrees).
(point 5 is always known to be the extreme bullish or bearish pattern )
Euphoria has just crept in Wherein you cannot call 1% fall also looking at the screen.
Volatility is at life lows (Now Just look that the gains or drops have been overnite and not intraday)
OI is nearly 82000 cr (lets see it above 90000 cr)
PCR is @ 1.85 Lets see it @ 2+
When Everyone Shouts Bear, Strong hands keep on saying BUY
When Everyone Shouts YO HO BULL BULL , Strong HAnds will Say SELL
Did We See Euphoria @ BSE when SENSEX Crossed 15000 .. NO ! IT was on an unexpected day ... No Channels were prepared for this 15000!
The screen is not discounting any bad news (the industrial numbers revised by 100 bps downwards for Apr, when the same numbers were a cause of the rally from Apr)
Crude is @ 73+ And ONGC Is not moving up ??? cud this be the trigger for extended 5?
I dont know when this point 5 will lead to target of 1-4 line .. Its to come ... But before that we need to see point 5 developing convincingly......! Would not mind shorting late but then why to go short now when there is no evidence ?
BSE Sensex has left a gap up... And this gap has to be closed.. When .. I dont know !
Also, in May'06 wolf wave bearish pattern, there was a 3-3.5% violation above 1-3 line for 5 days and on 6th trading session it entered below the 1-3 line after creating an extended point 5.
Here we are talking of elongated bearish wave.. So we need to give some time for it to develop a clear cut signal instead of going gung - ho and calling the market bear... IN May'06 it took only 23 sessions to develop this wave ant on 18th session itself the wave line was vioated.. Look at the volatility we had.. Until the last bear starts believing that there is no bearish sign, all falls need to be bought by the stronger hands. Till now, all trading forums have been calling a wolf wave- Now when the entire world believes this wave formation, why shall we have it ?
Lets loook at the following:
Wave 1 from 3617 (2/4/07) to 4217.90 (26/04/2007) (nearly 200% of the fall from 3901.75(23/03/07) -3617)
Wave 2 from 4217.90 to 3981.15 (11/05/07) (nearly 38.2% retracement of wave 1)
Wave 3 from 3981.15 to 4362.95 (04/06/07) (nearly 161.8% retracement of wave3)
Wave 4 from 4362.95 to 4100.80 (12/06/07) (nearly 61.8% retracement of Wave 4)
Wave 5 From 4100.80 to 4213.90 (13/07/07) (Still incomplete) (Upper targets could be 4525 (161.8%) 4563 (176.4%) 4625 (200%) ??)
Lets consider wave 5 to terminate near 4525 then 61.8% wud be 4258, @ 4563 it wud be 4280, @ 4625 it wud be 4300)
(Even the Astro Effect Shall take some time as and when the planets keep changing the degrees).
(point 5 is always known to be the extreme bullish or bearish pattern )
Euphoria has just crept in Wherein you cannot call 1% fall also looking at the screen.
Volatility is at life lows (Now Just look that the gains or drops have been overnite and not intraday)
OI is nearly 82000 cr (lets see it above 90000 cr)
PCR is @ 1.85 Lets see it @ 2+
When Everyone Shouts Bear, Strong hands keep on saying BUY
When Everyone Shouts YO HO BULL BULL , Strong HAnds will Say SELL
Did We See Euphoria @ BSE when SENSEX Crossed 15000 .. NO ! IT was on an unexpected day ... No Channels were prepared for this 15000!
The screen is not discounting any bad news (the industrial numbers revised by 100 bps downwards for Apr, when the same numbers were a cause of the rally from Apr)
Crude is @ 73+ And ONGC Is not moving up ??? cud this be the trigger for extended 5?
I dont know when this point 5 will lead to target of 1-4 line .. Its to come ... But before that we need to see point 5 developing convincingly......! Would not mind shorting late but then why to go short now when there is no evidence ?
BSE Sensex has left a gap up... And this gap has to be closed.. When .. I dont know !
Last edited:
- Status
| Thread starter | Similar threads | Forum | Replies | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Swing Trading...strategy KISS- MERS | Advanced Trading Strategies | 9 | |
| R | Intraday Strategy for Equity or Futures (touch of KISS) (not a trading setup thread) | Day Trading | 4 | |
| N | Kiss of MA | AmiBroker | 0 | |
| S | This chart shows why Arvind Kejriwal needs to kiss good-bye to his popularity | Fundamental Analysis | 13 | |
| J | KISS System | Futures | 2 |
Similar threads
-
-
Intraday Strategy for Equity or Futures (touch of KISS) (not a trading setup thread)
- Started by rajputz
- Replies: 4
-
-
This chart shows why Arvind Kejriwal needs to kiss good-bye to his popularity
- Started by shyam.trivedi
- Replies: 13
-