Learning to catch High Probability Breakouts

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indianbank

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Say you buy a stock ,and it starts going in a down trend ,as an investor when do you exit or you do not exit at all ?
Also what about a trailing stop loss,do you use it ?
This is a complicated que... we have to change our strategy according to market mechanics.....
No single rule will work in all kind of markets...
This year i sold my entire/90% of portfolio....on two occasions
1.greece uncertainty
2.GST lokjam

This kind of que will be explained better by seniors than me...:thumb:
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
This is a complicated que... we have to change our strategy according to market mechanics.....
No single rule will work in all kind of markets...
This year i sold my entire/90% of portfolio....on two occasions
1.greece uncertainty
2.GST lokjam

This kind of que will be explained better by seniors than me...:thumb:
Agreed , but the reason I am asking you this question is that you have defined 52 Week high as your strategy.

For that you have to define all rules including entry,exit,risk management,etc,otherwise it cannot be called as a system/strategy.

You cannot depend on global economic factors for your entry/exit.

This 52 Week high strategy will work in the bull market.What if there is a bear market or sideways market for years on like the Japanese Market.

Some questions you need to ponder on.

You can avoid answering this question if not comfortable.But I just want to highlight that even a normal investor cannot hope to remain complacent in any kind of markets.

Just as an example check the stock of AmtekAuto which tanked by -37% in one day yesterday.

Daily Chart of AmtekAuto

 
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last few days i was advocating the probabilities of a short term fall in nifty. fallen but it never sustained.

though some stocks like axisbank / yesbank / drreddy n some more given me good money, my patience and confidence is loosing now.

i will be closing my 80% positions on short side today. and will wait till range is broken. will just hold OTM puts... with very minor amnt.
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
Zero to Hero and back to Zero

Weekly Chart of MetalForge


This stock could have made you a millionaire from zero to zero back again depending on which side you were trading and where your entry was.

The reason for posting this stock was that heard about it on TV ,from many investors who got trapped at the high price and brokers/analysts advising them to average.

A classic case that like traders , every investor should also book full/partial profits.

Just image how painful it must be for a person(I heard such a caller on TV) who brought in the uptrend around 100 odd levels to see highest levels of 520 and from there drop down to 82 yesterday @ close.

A lesson for all buy/hold investors and traders too.
Don't keep on averaging a looser instead of getting out of it.
Keep booking partial profits.
You can always get back in when it shows strength again.
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
last few days i was advocating the probabilities of a short term fall in nifty. fallen but it never sustained.

though some stocks like axisbank / yesbank / drreddy n some more given me good money, my patience and confidence is loosing now.

i will be closing my 80% positions on short side today. and will wait till range is broken. will just hold OTM puts... with very minor amnt.
Daily Chart of Spot Nifty


Most traders have taken hits as Nifty is trading in a range.Everyday they expect it will break to one side , while it does not.
Just keeps on going from positive on one day to negative on another day.
Stuck between the two yellow lines and now the blue box.
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
Posted in another thread.

This post is not a disrespect ,but just to show that anything is possible in the markets.So we need to trade with proper stop loss.

Buy Reco in the stock by Sudarshan Sukhani on Aug 5
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/st...ani_2345881.html?utm_source=IW_DATA_stockpage

Sell Reco in the same stock by Sudarshan Sukhani on Aug 17.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/st...ani_2570181.html?utm_source=IW_DATA_stockpage

Daily Chart of Amtek Auto

Lesson learnt
Always make your own decision about buy/sell.Atleast you will not blame anyone else for your loss.
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
http://www.traderji.com/derivatives/99030-learn-how-fish.html#post1098143
some advice from old AW10's posts


1) Have your rules for entry, profit, stop exit, money managment, risk management in place. (and have confidence in them. Your paper trading should have proved it to you) 2) Develop right beliefs about the market. Some of sample belief / thoughts are
a) As a trader, my job is to find, plan and execute trade as per my rules. If there is no trade then I am not going to force a trade.
b) As a trader, I am here to trade.. not to gamble. Putting a trade against my tested rules is gambling.
c) Once in trade, I am ready to accept whatever market gives to me.Whether this trade will be profitable or not,is not in my control.
d) If this trade goes against me, my stops will get me out and save my account.
3) If you loose the confidence, then go back to paper trade or trade with small size to gain the confidence.
4) Know you strategy well in terms of number of consecutive loosing trades, biggest loss, how strategy behaves in various market conditions etc. You backtesting results will help you here.
5) Know the time when you have to stay away from the market. Market does test your patience and keeps us waiting for long time without giving potential opportunity meeting our rules. But thats the market.
:clapping::clapping::clapping:
 
let's have different perspective .such 'fall-cliff' stocks which forms an exact inverted 'V' pattern in monthly timeframe (eg.Amtekauto,Metal forg) have a common factor, that is these stocks have almost 2 times DEBT than its reserve .So better not to touch such stocks even for intraday trading to avoid svere heart burns...
 

indianbank

Well-Known Member
Hi friends... Good evening once again as always...
I have seen posts about Amtek stocks...
Only way to avoid such big fall is diluting your capital to several stocks... and never invest more than 10% of capital to a single stock....

I remember satyam computer fall.... Ya it was not amtek auto kinda stock... But we have seen a fraud in such a trusted compani by its own MD/CEO .
In stock market anything can happen...
i can give a live example from my own trading
i hold a stock called castex tech (amtek india)... and its daily down circuit for past 20 days... But believe me it has not affected me much... because my capital is divided in to 40-50 stocks... and i believe in team performance than individual performance.
Person to person style varies.. some may disagree with me... its personal choice....
----------------
Another point is about Indian RS vs USD... past 2 months i am bearish on Indian rupee and i have already posted charts in several occasion of Indian RS/gold/crude/silver ect..... RS can depreciate agasint USD so sharply in coming days...so Tech companis can go bullish
 
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