Learning to catch High Probability Breakouts
- Thread starter amitrandive
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My new portfolio is in unrealized loss of near 5000 rs...
Bears are full in control... next 2-3 months this trend may continue...
From this level market can go 10-15 % down...
There is no single factor helping bulls ...
There is no scope for investing more money in this market.... its too sad ( i should be happy with 10% return of bank FD)
Bears are full in control... next 2-3 months this trend may continue...
From this level market can go 10-15 % down...
There is no single factor helping bulls
... There is no scope for investing more money in this market.... its too sad ( i should be happy with 10% return of bank FD)
This won't end well:
Remember, a 25bps rate-hike means up to $800bn of liquidity withdrawn from markets.
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Remember, a 25bps rate-hike means up to $800bn of liquidity withdrawn from markets.
picture share
Deutsche Bank: Something is Seriously Wrong
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DB is not only Germany's largest bank (by a long shot), but it also has nearly €55 Trillion in total derivative exposure. To put that in context, the entire German GDP is approximately €3.0 Trillion.
Two major red flags with DB's charts. First, the monthly graph shown above, shows a huge performance gap between XLF, the financial sector ETF (black line, right-hand axis) and Deutsche Bank (left-hand axis). DB and XLF were highly correlated, as you can see, from 2006 through about 2012. Then, for some reason, DB started to trail off while XLF went on to nearly double in price. Whatever the reason, and I don't particularly care why, this chart suggests something very bad is going on under the surface at DB.
photo uploader
The second red flag comes from the very long-term monthly DB chart. One could argue that the last 20 years has been nothing but a massive topping pattern. The reason I bring this chart up is because DB just broke below $25 support. You can see several times on the chart where it touched $25 and quickly rebounded (of course with the exception of the financial crisis where it dipped below $20 but then proceeded to triple in price). You may not agree, but I feel like $25 is a "line in the sand" of sorts. If DB closes December below this level, then the path of least resistance will be downward. Any upward progress is going to be met with monumental overhead resistance.
http://www.goldsqueeze.com/home/deutsche-bank-something-is-seriously-wrong
forum image hosting
DB is not only Germany's largest bank (by a long shot), but it also has nearly €55 Trillion in total derivative exposure. To put that in context, the entire German GDP is approximately €3.0 Trillion.
Two major red flags with DB's charts. First, the monthly graph shown above, shows a huge performance gap between XLF, the financial sector ETF (black line, right-hand axis) and Deutsche Bank (left-hand axis). DB and XLF were highly correlated, as you can see, from 2006 through about 2012. Then, for some reason, DB started to trail off while XLF went on to nearly double in price. Whatever the reason, and I don't particularly care why, this chart suggests something very bad is going on under the surface at DB.
photo uploader
The second red flag comes from the very long-term monthly DB chart. One could argue that the last 20 years has been nothing but a massive topping pattern. The reason I bring this chart up is because DB just broke below $25 support. You can see several times on the chart where it touched $25 and quickly rebounded (of course with the exception of the financial crisis where it dipped below $20 but then proceeded to triple in price). You may not agree, but I feel like $25 is a "line in the sand" of sorts. If DB closes December below this level, then the path of least resistance will be downward. Any upward progress is going to be met with monumental overhead resistance.
http://www.goldsqueeze.com/home/deutsche-bank-something-is-seriously-wrong
Petronet.
in uptrend... will look for a short...short term reversal.. with some rise or without.. when triggers, a correction may happen.
will it reach to selling zone again, or will trigger sell before it ?
ONGC
I will definitely look for longs..
1 long trade is already failed/ actually didn't triggered, you may find earlier chart in this thread (1dec2015). may be more will fail too... but trying to guess bottoms may trigger some s/l's.
until supports held.. may reward awesome..
OIL
again .. for me its a bull. rest on chart. aggressive one with or without dip
OIL closing line chart.
all above are probable short term reversal candidates for me.
in uptrend... will look for a short...short term reversal.. with some rise or without.. when triggers, a correction may happen.
will it reach to selling zone again, or will trigger sell before it ?
ONGC
I will definitely look for longs..
1 long trade is already failed/ actually didn't triggered, you may find earlier chart in this thread (1dec2015). may be more will fail too... but trying to guess bottoms may trigger some s/l's.
until supports held.. may reward awesome..
OIL
again .. for me its a bull. rest on chart. aggressive one with or without dip
OIL closing line chart.
all above are probable short term reversal candidates for me.
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