Learning to catch High Probability Breakouts

[nitingosavi]

again bought some 7600 calls to carry @ 125.

Lol earlier trade in which I booked loss .. 7700 PE written and 7650 CE bough.. seems right now..

any way booked 7600 Calls 100% qty @ 138 earlier loss covered.

 

[vikas2131]

nitin ji continues to go right everyday as usual

 

[nitingosavi]

looks like a good downside may come ..
with a bounce or without.
closing basis charts.

Auropharma daily

Lupin Daily

Grasim Daily

Auropharma and Grasim both are extremely high momentum stocks.. S/L and entry , should be chosen carefully.
All are spot/cash charts

 

[revendar]

AUROPHARMA FUT data suggests good support at 839. Close below that in FUT can be looked for. But risky one.

 

[nitingosavi]

AUROPHARMA FUT data suggests good support at 839. Close below that in FUT can be looked for. But risky one.

chart suggesting that momentum is slowly draining.
until recent High's intact a very good scope of downside and if this happens will be a very fast one.. just a wild guess.

 

[nitingosavi]

nifty fut 15 min
reference chart.

will be interesting to see which zone it enters and sustains.
longs not looks logical before 7641-47.

 

[jain.er]

As you said some of my stocks performed well... i dont think anything went wrong... if my loss is 10k then it will be 1% of my capital (its far now)...
Profits are seasonal.. some months may go very good for me.... some months may be so choppy or nagative...
If we analyze Yoy performance of nifty then last year nifty performed negative....
My december month portfolio is having 17 stocks and only 4 of them are in green..
You asked me question about booking profits... i dont think i made any mistakes or something went wrong...

(There are two type of traders....
---------------------------------------------
1. Small capital traders and they want high return of 300-400% yoy
2.Huge capital traders and they want 20-30% return yoy.
My ultimate aim is type 2 trader ,managing a fund in crores with yearly target return around 20-30 % , taking less risk. Coming years i may increase my trading capital... and year 2018 i hope i can trade with min 1 crore rs fund
These are my goals which can be achievable.... lets see how it works..)

Thats a great reply Indian bank, I think you have your strategy well defined, its really good.
Whats you SL strategy? suppose one stocks falls rapidly when do you book losses?

Do you use leverage of any type in your portfolio and when do you book profits.
On an average ho many stocks you hold in your protfolio

 

[nitingosavi]

Tatasteel.. fut today's high till now 256.45/60 and 263/64 B/O zone I guess is the zone to watch for.

stock failed B/O looks like loosing momentum.
Shorted @ 252.6
will post chart after market.

 

[amitrandive]

Trendline Break & Retest is a trade where it occurs is more important for it playful significance.


Case -1

For ex: If TLBR is occuring while stock is turning up from a prolonged downtrend, then it should be played with caution, as it can be a case of breakout failure.

Tip here is observed volume during this scenario, it should be low relative to recent selling bars. Volume below this trendline consolidation has to be low, so that breakout volume can be meaningful.

Case-2

If trend is already up, and we are trading TLBR setup while having a consolidation/correction. During this scenario, chances of breakout failure is less, as we are with ongoing trend.

Tip here is, In this whole uptrend, where this consolidation occuring, is this is a first consolidation area after market turned up, or its third-fourth consolidation area. Why it matters is, if you are trading first consolidation after uptrend, chances of continuing is up, but if you playing late consolidations in uptrend, viz -4th/5th then chances of failure are higher.

Now on volume in this case is relative lower than the volume coming in recent uptrend.
Note here, volume in uptrend consolidation is always lower than volume while the stock itself is changing its trend from down to up. In short volume during consolidation in case-2 is always lesser than volume during consolidation in case-1.


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Now coming to your part, why it goes up/down at trendline before proceeding and what should be entry.

One can go full wither on breakout or wait to play on retest. ON retest too, you have two options either go on trendline touch, or go on the high of peak, from where this stock is correcting after a breakout.

If you had gone long on trendline retest, then SL can be your affordability wise.

But recent observations by me, i had seen stock after retesting come below trendline and spent few bars below it, without breaking low of immediate 'trough' prior to breakout. So that is safe area for conservatives to add their positions if at all it comes.

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Every setup has failure, there cannot be 100% successful setup, but we as a trader/investor need to get into that sweet point where things dont turn much sour for us...

Trendline trading from Anil sir

:clapping::clapping::clapping:

 

[nitingosavi]

shorted Maruti/TVSmotors futures.
Tatamotors short already in hand.

will post chart in some time.

Maruti fut daily.
I Think It shouldn't hit 4692/4700 zone. If needed will have to average twice..
Trend line broken retested.
could not sustain resistances.
just need a little push lower.

Update.

almost all expectations meet !
Its a example.. Of trendline break and retest..(refer to post below By AMIT ji) and works for me many times ! Thanks to Anil Trivedi sir.