Learning to catch High Probability Breakouts

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sunny_cool

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Patience pays...another beautiful live example...:thumb:



IFBIND ~ DAILY

Consolidating from some time...specially from last 2 months in narrow range....volume spike is seen after a month & thats too near breakout level... can it give fast spike move or it be slugish ?? lets see

 

protrade

Well-Known Member
I expect a significant breakout in ICICI Bank, on the back of successful IPru Life IPO. Can someone help me understand whether the volumes and the technicals support this expectation?

I expect a minimum 10% move up in the stock, within the next 10 trading sessions. Would this even be considered a breakout? Or is it bigger moves that you are expecting?

In the Equities Group, I have predicted such moves successfully in Reliance, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, etc. - but purely based on Macro and fundamental factors that the analyst community is missed. And in the same way, I am predicting this for ICICI Bank now. Some of these moves happened, but the stocks have also given up these moves in case of Tata Motors and Sun Pharma. I think these are consolidation phases and eventually the up move will resume.
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
I expect a significant breakout in ICICI Bank, on the back of successful IPru Life IPO. Can someone help me understand whether the volumes and the technicals support this expectation?

I expect a minimum 10% move up in the stock, within the next 10 trading sessions. Would this even be considered a breakout? Or is it bigger moves that you are expecting?

In the Equities Group, I have predicted such moves successfully in Reliance, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, etc. - but purely based on Macro and fundamental factors that the analyst community is missed. And in the same way, I am predicting this for ICICI Bank now. Some of these moves happened, but the stocks have also given up these moves in case of Tata Motors and Sun Pharma. I think these are consolidation phases and eventually the up move will resume.
Thanks !!!

Would be great learning from you about Macro and Fundamental analysis !!!

:clapping::clapping::clapping:
 

amitrandive

Well-Known Member
Dear jain.er,

There is no fixed rule whether breakout will failed or succeed...Its all probability you need to assess...the price action going on...

Infact if you look closely there is another consolidation in that pattern from 21/4/2016...drawing a resistance TL from there connecting highs of 12/5/2016 and thereafter given a breakout at 27/5/2016...it closed below TL...but next day and few days it cleared and holded well...these are precursor to things coming in...if its a weak it should have reversed below...

Again,1/6/2016 provides breakout from TL resistance you had drawn...either you can go long at EOD or on next day opening of 2/6/2016...You had infact ample time here...its not that the day it breakout it runs away for 10% plus...it had given time here...

Now, coming yo your question if one missed breakout where to catch...This is difficult to answer, bcoz some stocks had parabolic run, then its difficult to dare to enter in...

Ideally i would avoid buying 5% plus above breakout out zone..i will let it go...as my stoploss then cant be affordable one...

I am moving average man, so i go on test at 10/20...With tight stoploss...Generally its my observation such multimonth consolidation breakouts dont fizzle out so fast...
Wise words from Anilji !!!
 
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