Linkon's guppyBB system...!

[linkon7]

Dear Sir,

Eagerly awaiting for the AFL. The system looks brilliant.

Regards,

actually the system is just ema34, ema 60 and BB...

the interpretation is the key... Even on magic trick day like today, where stoploss vanish both ways..it kept us on the right side of the market... and did a good job...

Thankfully..ST-da has volunteered to help out bring some new insight to the method...

lets see...!

 

[linkon7]

I just came across a modified guppy on traders lab. The concept looks good... It uses a volatility based ema where the ema goes flat if the volatility decreases and has the potential to ruin my weekend on another goose chase... Anyway, nothing to loose and time spent on research pays dividend in some form or the other...

If anyone has the variable moving average afl.. then please post it here....! Anyone who has worked on variable moving average, please post your experience...!

 

[novicetraders]

VIDYA by Tushar Chande and Kroll is also known as Variable moving average .
Is this the one u are looking for ? Is it the same ?

 

[novicetraders]

VIDYA is an acronym of Variable Index DYnamic Average. The VIDYA is an exponential moving average that automatically adjusts the smoothing weight based on the volatility of the data series. The more volatile the data is, the more weight is given to the more recent values. The VIDYA solves a problem with most moving averages. In times of low volatility, such as when the price is trending, the moving average time period should be shorter to be sensitive to the inevitable break in the trend. Whereas, in more volatile non-trending times, the moving average time period should be longer to filter out the choppiness

 

[novicetraders]

//Vidya Afl

// Vidya

Length=21;
Smooth=5;

Change = C - Ref( C, -1 );
SU = Sum( C - Ref( C, -1 ) > 0, Length );
SD = Sum( C - Ref( C, -1 ) < 0, Length );
CMO = 100 * ( SU - SD ) / ( SU + SD );

AbsCMO=( abs(CMO) )/100;

SC=2/(Smooth+1);

VIDYA=AMA( C, SC*AbsCMO );

Plot( Close, "Price", 4, 64 );
Plot( VIDYA, "Vidya", 5 );


The length of the MA can be changed as per needs

 

[augubhai]

I just came across a modified guppy on traders lab. The concept looks good... It uses a volatility based ema where the ema goes flat if the volatility decreases and has the potential to ruin my weekend on another goose chase... Anyway, nothing to loose and time spent on research pays dividend in some form or the other...

If anyone has the variable moving average afl.. then please post it here....! Anyone who has worked on variable moving average, please post your experience...!

This isn't a proper afl: may have to be corrected to get it to display properly. Did not see a point trying to fix the afl when it was easier to calculate in Excel.

I have only used it in the daily timeframe on nifty with very good results. I don't use it any longer.

myMA[0]=C[0];

for(i=1;i<BarCount;i++){
	wt=abs(C[i-1]-myMA[i-1])/C[i-1];
	myMA=myMA[i-1]+wt*(C-myMA[i-1]);
}

Plot(myMA,"",colorRed);

For intraday, you could multiply the wt. by a factor to get the MA to respond better. Hope this helps.

 

[saivenkat]

Dear Sir,

Eagerly awaiting for the AFL. The system looks brilliant.

Regards,

Count me too... Linkon bro.. Waiting for the AFL..

 

[linkon7]

Guppy VMA can differentiate between a sideways day vrs a trending day very effectively.

because of its stubborn nature all sideways days are treated as a pause before the trend continuation...The lines just stay flat and display various levels of retracements. Visually.... It is never confused about the direction and that is a good quality we can incorporate in the future...

 

[linkon7]

the stubbornness is highlighted here..where normal guppy has already signaled a complete trend reversal... VMA didnt let go of hope...

This stubbornness is required to filter out the noise that very short data series can produce. 10 days of weakness and suddenly the trade's sentiments becomes very bearish while the big players are just in the accumulating phase.

 

[linkon7]

current data series is very interesting...

In the past 15 days...guppy VMA is suggesting a ranged market... normal guppy has shown a compression just 2 days ago... which normally is a sign of an upthrust...

How does that translate into trading...?
I got shaken out of a 5600-5700 put spread, that too on the 200 point day. On hindsight, i might have had the nerves to hold on to the position...