Linkon's guppyBB system...!

[DanPickUp]

Hi Linkon 7

I was waiting for your post and comments. It is always a pleasure to see charts and comments from you.

I like post 16 very much. Posting and describing a whole system or other trading work behaviors is education for the writer and reader. I second this at any stage.

As you speak about option trading, here some input from my side. BB and put call ratio combined. Not the usual stuff. It is an older picture and you still can use this technique today.

http://img715.imageshack.us/f/bbandpcratio.png/

Wish you all the best

DanPickUp

 

[linkon7]

As per our trading logic...

we first identify the trend using ema. price above 34 ema and price above 60 ema is assumed to be in an uptrend. we try to enter on touch of ema-34 or if price has gone a bit sideways..then we try to enter on BB(21,2).

As long as we get unidirectional moves for 4-5 days, then this logic is perfect.

But when market decides to go sideways with little conviction in either direction and trade near the 34 ema - 60 ema band, with very little cloud above or below this 3460 band then we have to redefine the trend identification...

our entry criteria remains the same while we exit near the em34 under such circumstances. entry near the em34 will give heart burns... stoploss criteria also remains valid.

 

[columbus]

Hi linkon7,

Yes,for establishing trends in early stages ,we depend on EMAs before
Bollinger Bands and other indicators.

 

[linkon7]

This leads to a very critical decision point. How do we differentiate sideways market from trending market. Eyeballing the chart is the best way. But to have a system in place... we need a criteria which, if filled, is officially sideways. That is when we shift our mindset from trend-is-our-friend to fade-the-extreme.

This is a grey area that i have been working on for a long time, without much success. How to define sideways market ?

some of the methods i tried are :
1. ADX rule :
adx below both pdi & mdi.
ADX below 20

so far, i find adx very slow. By the time adx gives me the green signal, i have already lost my advantageous trade location. By the time adx flags a sideways market... i can already see 5-6 bars on the 3460 band.

kartik sir has developed a KADX that is adaptive and more reactive. so that gives us a ray of hope.

2. Kijun Sen is flat. Kujun sen is a indicator used in ichimuku that goes flat when no new high / low is made in the last n number of bars. It is the 50% retracement of the last n number of bars.

The flaw of this that incase we get a freak bar that makes a abnormal high / low then this method goes for a toss. When we trade 15 min tf, one wide bar of 60-80 points is enough to ruin this criteria for the next n number of bars.

3. Angle of the ema34
This is a valid way of looking at a sideways market. if the angle of the ema34360 is less than 15% then its sideways. If the angle is between 15-30..then its mildly bullish 30-45 is bullish and anything above 45 is pure trend.

we can use this info in our system...how effective it will turn out only time will tell...

4. gap between em34 and em60. This gap can be measured using MACD. a useful indication of a maturing trend...

5. number of bars above the sma21. This is where cci comes into the picture. since we are measuring the volatility between price and sma21 by using BB. CCI is a useful tool to add clarity to the picture as cci is designed to contain price between 100 and -100. Woodies has done a excellent job studying the CCI and deriving patterns that fit perfectly into our context.

6. LSMA-25, least square moving average is something woodies used as a qualifier for counter trend trades. useful for us to have that as one of our exit parameter for trend trades.

7. headley acceleration band. This band is unique as when combined with our BB, it tells us the best demarcation between trending - sideways days.

8. Market Profile. This is the mother of all such bias forming maxims. It can judge the kind of day that will develop with just the first 5 min of trading. Its too powerful a tool and that will remain my mount Everest that i will conquer some day.



All the above factors are all area of development that can either make it better or make life miserable. It can be a case of too many cooks spoiling the broth or panel of expertise advisor that individually fills a vital piece of a bigger jigsaw puzzle.

To an untrained eye, keeping it simple is the best. To a trained eye, there is always a missing piece of info that could help in avoiding a failed trade. The search goes on...

 

[nilesh53333]

sir how to add angel of ema34 in amibroker. is there any afl or code. sir please help. i want to study it.

 

[jagankris]

This is a grey area that i have been working on for a long time, without much success. How to define sideways market ?

Me tooooooo :lol:
I have added complication to the ADX by adding ema to each.
Linkon ji Please check this and let us know how to fine tune this.


_SECTION_BEGIN("ADX");
range = Param("Periods", 14, 2, 200, 1 );
Plot( EMA(ADX(14),5), "Adx EMA", ParamColor( "ADXMA color", colorSkyblue ), ParamStyle("ADX style", styleThick ) );
Plot( ADX(14), _DEFAULT_NAME(), ParamColor( "ADX color", colorBlue ), ParamStyle("ADX style", styleThick ) );

Plot( EMA(PDI(14),5),"+DI", ParamColor( "+DI color", colorGreen ), ParamStyle("+DI style") );
Plot( EMA(EMA(PDI(14),5),5), "EMAPDI", ParamColor( "EMAPDI color", colorYellow ), ParamStyle("EMAPDI style") );

Plot( EMA(MDI(14),5),"-DI", ParamColor( "-DI color", colorRed ), ParamStyle("-DI style") );
Plot( EMA(EMA(MDI(14),5),5),"EMAMDI", ParamColor( "EMAMDI color", colorOrange ), ParamStyle("EMAMDI style") );

_SECTION_END();

A1 = ADX(14) > EMA(ADX(14),5);
A2 = ADX(14) < EMA(ADX(14),5);
C1 = PDI(14) > EMA(PDI(14),5) AND MDI(14) < EMA(MDI(14),5) AND A1;
C2 = PDI(14) > EMA(PDI(14),5) AND MDI(14) < EMA(MDI(14),5) AND A2;
C3 = MDI(14) > EMA(MDI(14),5) AND PDI(14) < EMA(PDI(14),5) AND A1;
C4 = MDI(14) > EMA(MDI(14),5) AND PDI(14) < EMA(PDI(14),5) AND A2;
S1 = ADX(14) < PDI(14) AND ADX(14) < MDI(14) AND ADX(14) < 20;

Plot( 2, "Ribbon",IIf(S1,colorViolet,IIf(C1,colorBlue,IIf(C2,colorSkyblue,IIf(C3,colorRed,colorOrange)))),styleOwnScale|styleArea|styleNoLabel, -0.5, 100 );

TIA.

 

[linkon7]

Me tooooooo :lol:
I have added complication to the ADX by adding ema to each.
Linkon ji Please check this and let us know how to fine tune this.


_SECTION_BEGIN("ADX");
range = Param("Periods", 14, 2, 200, 1 );
Plot( EMA(ADX(14),5), "Adx EMA", ParamColor( "ADXMA color", colorSkyblue ), ParamStyle("ADX style", styleThick ) );
Plot( ADX(14), _DEFAULT_NAME(), ParamColor( "ADX color", colorBlue ), ParamStyle("ADX style", styleThick ) );

Plot( EMA(PDI(14),5),"+DI", ParamColor( "+DI color", colorGreen ), ParamStyle("+DI style") );
Plot( EMA(EMA(PDI(14),5),5), "EMAPDI", ParamColor( "EMAPDI color", colorYellow ), ParamStyle("EMAPDI style") );

Plot( EMA(MDI(14),5),"-DI", ParamColor( "-DI color", colorRed ), ParamStyle("-DI style") );
Plot( EMA(EMA(MDI(14),5),5),"EMAMDI", ParamColor( "EMAMDI color", colorOrange ), ParamStyle("EMAMDI style") );

_SECTION_END();

A1 = ADX(14) > EMA(ADX(14),5);
A2 = ADX(14) < EMA(ADX(14),5);
C1 = PDI(14) > EMA(PDI(14),5) AND MDI(14) < EMA(MDI(14),5) AND A1;
C2 = PDI(14) > EMA(PDI(14),5) AND MDI(14) < EMA(MDI(14),5) AND A2;
C3 = MDI(14) > EMA(MDI(14),5) AND PDI(14) < EMA(PDI(14),5) AND A1;
C4 = MDI(14) > EMA(MDI(14),5) AND PDI(14) < EMA(PDI(14),5) AND A2;
S1 = ADX(14) < PDI(14) AND ADX(14) < MDI(14) AND ADX(14) < 20;

Plot( 2, "Ribbon",IIf(S1,colorViolet,IIf(C1,colorBlue,IIf(C2,colorSkyblue,IIf(C3,colorRed,colorOrange)))),styleOwnScale|styleArea|styleNoLabel, -0.5, 100 );

TIA.

Problem with adx indicator is that, it lags. By taking the ema of the adx,pdi and mdi... we can smoothen it but we are delaying the signals even more.

One way of trading DMI is by noting the crossover of pdi and mdi, that bar's high / low plus filter is entry for the next bar.

Adx helps in exit. as long as adx is rising... hold on to the trade.

drawing trendlines on pdi / mdi is a good signal also...it lead price by 1 bar atleast...

 

[linkon7]

sir how to add angel of ema34 in amibroker. is there any afl or code. sir please help. i want to study it.

Plot(C ,"c",colorWhite,styleCandle);
Plot(EMA(C,3),"ema10",colorBlue,styleThick);
Plot(EMA(C,34),"ema30",colorRed,styleThick);
Buy = Cross(EMA(C,10),EMA(C,30));
Sell = Cross(EMA(C,30),EMA(C,10));
Short = Sell;
Cover = Buy;

PlotShapes(shapeUpArrow*Buy,colorGreen,0,L,-15);
PlotShapes(shapeDownArrow*Sell,colorRed,0,H,-15);

// Angle variables

PI = atan(1.00) * 4; 
periods = 30; 
HighHigh = HHV(H, periods); 
LowLow = LLV(L, periods); 
range = 25 / (HighHigh - LowLow) * LowLow;

// EMA34 Angle

EMA34 = EMA(C,34);
x1_EMA34 = 0; 
x2_EMA34 = 1; 
y1_EMA34 = 0; 
y2_EMA34 = (Ref(EMA34, -1) - EMA34) / Avg * range; 
c_EMA34 = sqrt((x2_EMA34 - x1_EMA34)*(x2_EMA34 - x1_EMA34) + (y2_EMA34 - y1_EMA34)*(y2_EMA34 - y1_EMA34)); 
angle_EMA34 = round(180 * acos((x2_EMA34 - x1_EMA34)/c_EMA34) / PI); 
angle_EMA34 = IIf(y2_EMA34 > 0, - angle_EMA34, angle_EMA34); 

Title = 
EncodeColor(colorWhite)+ "EMA ANGLE" + " - " +  Name() + " - " +  EncodeColor(colorRed)+ Interval(2)+ EncodeColor(colorWhite) +
 "  - " + Date() +

"\n"+
WriteIf(Ref(H,-1) > Ref(H,-2),EncodeColor(colorBrightGreen),EncodeColor(colorRed))+"ex  "+Ref(H,-1)+WriteIf(H > Ref(H,-1),EncodeColor(colorBrightGreen),EncodeColor(colorRed))+" Hi "+H+
EncodeColor(colorYellow)+
"\n"+ 
EncodeColor(colorWhite)+"Op "+O+WriteIf(C > O, EncodeColor(colorBrightGreen),EncodeColor(colorRed))+" Cl : " +C+
EncodeColor(colorYellow)+

"\n"+
WriteIf(Ref(L,-1) < Ref(L,-2),EncodeColor(colorRed),EncodeColor(colorBrightGreen))+"ex  "+Ref(L,-1)+WriteIf(L < Ref(L,-1),EncodeColor(colorRed),EncodeColor(colorBrightGreen))+" Lo "+L+
"\n"+
"\n"+
EncodeColor(colorYellow)+

"EM34 angle   " + angle_ema34;

 

[linkon7]

Relinfra ka price RIIL ho gaya...

RILL ka price Relcap ho gaya...

rpower ka price rcom ho gaya...

Rcom ka price rnrl ho gaya....

aur rnrl gayab hogaya....

 

[tnsn2345]

This leads to a very critical decision point. How do we differentiate sideways market from trending market. Eyeballing the chart is the best way. But to have a system in place... we need a criteria which, if filled, is officially sideways. That is when we shift our mindset from trend-is-our-friend to fade-the-extreme.

This is a grey area that i have been working on for a long time, without much success. How to define sideways market ?

.....

To an untrained eye, keeping it simple is the best. To a trained eye, there is always a missing piece of info that could help in avoiding a failed trade. The search goes on...

Dear Linkon,

After a lot many years, I came to a conclusion that there is no indicator which will foretell you the timing of the desired movement. Until I started 'feeling' the pulse of the market. No not through news and impact of global developments etc, but purely on the basis of simple charts for different TFs. IMO there is no other way but this 'unprofessional way' to time the movement.

With all the indicators, formulas, and programming, codes we are just beating around the bush, just feeling that we are near the destination, which is not to be.

Eyeballing is necessary and only an experienced eye can detect the move early and quite often precisely. And IMO this is the hard fact. You would be surprised to know that I do not use any charts except of a simple CS charts (ofcourse of multiple TFs, simulatenously) and decide on the entry and exit. To be precise, for me it is just the THREE preceeding candles do it all, all other candles are only for purpose of knowing the primary direction of the trend.....

Ok, won't interput your flow further. But thought I would say this after I saw your comments in your above post.

Regards,