Live Intraday Calls and Market View
- Thread starter rpasupathy
- Start date
Re: Live Intraday Calls and Market View - 17.09.07
Dear Devikpani,
These Calls are not mine.....
All these are taken from different sources ......
I don't know whether I can provide the source of the reports or the calls that I am just reproducing it here ...
Traderji has to give me permission for the same.....
Cheers
Dear Devikpani,
These Calls are not mine.....
All these are taken from different sources ......
I don't know whether I can provide the source of the reports or the calls that I am just reproducing it here ...
Traderji has to give me permission for the same.....
Cheers
Live Intraday Calls - 19.07.07
Peak today ?
The Fed capitulated and cut its key overnight lending rate for the first time in more than 4 years, dropping the Fed funds rate by an unexpected 50 basis points from 5.25% to 4.75%. The decision by the Fed was unanimous, with the members stating that "Today\'s action is intended to forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruption in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time." The Fed also said core inflation has improved "modestly" but that some risks remain.
Furthermore, in an effort to address the building credit crunch, the Federal Reserve also reduced its discount rate to 5.25% from 5.75%. The initial reaction on Wall Street was broadly jubilant, and you could almost hear the party favors popping.The Dow surged sharply higher up 335 closing the day above the 13,700 mark . The S&P 500 added more than 43 points to finish above the 1,500 level Finally, the Nasdaq jumped 70 points and bested the 2,650 level for the first time since July 23. Lehman Bros posted better than expected numbers.
In commodities, Crude hit a high of $82.13.Gold rallied above $735 to close at 724$.Copper futures gained 2.8 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $3.448 a pound . US Treasuries lost ground.
In other news Stanchart bought over Amex and the British government said it will guarantee deposits at Northern Rock Plc. Savers across the U.K. have removed about 2 billion pounds from Northern Rock since Sept. 14.
Ask and ye shall receive ... what crisis, why worry, the Fed is here to bail us out! Well, the permanent- bulls were right at least for now. But once the bubbles have popped, think it through ..that rate cut is an effective 1 % ( 50 bps cut in both the discount rate and the funds ) the Fed must have been VERY VERY worried .Ergo, from here on it is like walking blind in a minefield where you have no idea of where the mines are.
Clearly the Fed feels that the liquidity and credit crunch in the financial markets is still serious and the downside risks of a recession are now large enough ,that doing 50bps was the minimum necessary to try to prevent a hard landing. Insolvencies and financial distress cannot be repaired with monetary policy injections alone. Those will take time to work out and will imply tight financial and credit conditions regardless of what the Fed does.
Two more key events left to play out today - the baton passes on to the BOJ at noon and the Left/ UPA meet.
Asia gapped up this morning currently up 3% ( the yen is at 115.86) the Nikkei up 500 recovering yesterdays losses of 300 odd. The Hang Seng Index hit a fresh lifetime high after the Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed the Fed`s move and announced this morning it has reduced its base rate by half a percentage point. The HKMA usually mirrors any Fed moves on interest rates because the city`s currency is pegged to the US dollar. Interestingly, Shanghai is down.
Expect more volatility once the initial euphoria ( mania ?) is done with , is the ride over ? Watch the rupee and the yen as always.
Support 15070/4290 Resistance 15715 /4570. PCR 1.55. Life time high 15869/4648. Weak below / strong above 4575 Nifty future.
The PCR on the indices and individual stocks show a steady position in shorts - indicating a status quo bias on advances. Amongst all the euphoria of the Fed rate cut, do note that both FII and DII numbers were negative yesterday FII 535 crores and DII 200 crs app.
Do nothing if the markets gap up to 4630 on the spot Nifty. Failure to sustain will bring the bears out. Everyone on the street knows that we will gap up. Can we sustain the gap ?
Markets never goes with broad consensus and historically have never peaked out on account of bad news, it has always been on account of good news.
Peak today?
High Risk/ High Reward
Nifty Sep Fut - Trading Range 4550-4606 . Above 4580 Target 4606/ Below 4571 support 4525/4480.
Rel Cap Buy above 1450 stop Target 1435 Target 1500
L&T Sept Fut Buy above 2620 stop 2600 Target 2670
Peak today ?
The Fed capitulated and cut its key overnight lending rate for the first time in more than 4 years, dropping the Fed funds rate by an unexpected 50 basis points from 5.25% to 4.75%. The decision by the Fed was unanimous, with the members stating that "Today\'s action is intended to forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruption in financial markets and to promote moderate growth over time." The Fed also said core inflation has improved "modestly" but that some risks remain.
Furthermore, in an effort to address the building credit crunch, the Federal Reserve also reduced its discount rate to 5.25% from 5.75%. The initial reaction on Wall Street was broadly jubilant, and you could almost hear the party favors popping.The Dow surged sharply higher up 335 closing the day above the 13,700 mark . The S&P 500 added more than 43 points to finish above the 1,500 level Finally, the Nasdaq jumped 70 points and bested the 2,650 level for the first time since July 23. Lehman Bros posted better than expected numbers.
In commodities, Crude hit a high of $82.13.Gold rallied above $735 to close at 724$.Copper futures gained 2.8 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $3.448 a pound . US Treasuries lost ground.
In other news Stanchart bought over Amex and the British government said it will guarantee deposits at Northern Rock Plc. Savers across the U.K. have removed about 2 billion pounds from Northern Rock since Sept. 14.
Ask and ye shall receive ... what crisis, why worry, the Fed is here to bail us out! Well, the permanent- bulls were right at least for now. But once the bubbles have popped, think it through ..that rate cut is an effective 1 % ( 50 bps cut in both the discount rate and the funds ) the Fed must have been VERY VERY worried .Ergo, from here on it is like walking blind in a minefield where you have no idea of where the mines are.
Clearly the Fed feels that the liquidity and credit crunch in the financial markets is still serious and the downside risks of a recession are now large enough ,that doing 50bps was the minimum necessary to try to prevent a hard landing. Insolvencies and financial distress cannot be repaired with monetary policy injections alone. Those will take time to work out and will imply tight financial and credit conditions regardless of what the Fed does.
Two more key events left to play out today - the baton passes on to the BOJ at noon and the Left/ UPA meet.
Asia gapped up this morning currently up 3% ( the yen is at 115.86) the Nikkei up 500 recovering yesterdays losses of 300 odd. The Hang Seng Index hit a fresh lifetime high after the Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed the Fed`s move and announced this morning it has reduced its base rate by half a percentage point. The HKMA usually mirrors any Fed moves on interest rates because the city`s currency is pegged to the US dollar. Interestingly, Shanghai is down.
Expect more volatility once the initial euphoria ( mania ?) is done with , is the ride over ? Watch the rupee and the yen as always.
Support 15070/4290 Resistance 15715 /4570. PCR 1.55. Life time high 15869/4648. Weak below / strong above 4575 Nifty future.
The PCR on the indices and individual stocks show a steady position in shorts - indicating a status quo bias on advances. Amongst all the euphoria of the Fed rate cut, do note that both FII and DII numbers were negative yesterday FII 535 crores and DII 200 crs app.
Do nothing if the markets gap up to 4630 on the spot Nifty. Failure to sustain will bring the bears out. Everyone on the street knows that we will gap up. Can we sustain the gap ?
Markets never goes with broad consensus and historically have never peaked out on account of bad news, it has always been on account of good news.
Peak today?
High Risk/ High Reward
Nifty Sep Fut - Trading Range 4550-4606 . Above 4580 Target 4606/ Below 4571 support 4525/4480.
Rel Cap Buy above 1450 stop Target 1435 Target 1500
L&T Sept Fut Buy above 2620 stop 2600 Target 2670
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