Long or Short Opinion
- Thread starter rajputz
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We seem to have broken down for shorter term. This move could take to 4800-4820 NF in 2-3 days before we have a bounce back. For today's weakness to sustain, NIFTY spot has to stay below 5000 (200 DMA). It seems to be possible. We could not take out those critical resistance levels between 5075-5095 spot. More we spend time below 200 DMA, more it is bad for market. For bulls to come back we need to cross 5100 spot broadly.
Happy trading!
Happy trading!
Nifty futures is up 45 points already went as high as 70 points at one stage. So yes you are right. It was a bad decision on my part exited my entire portfolio today because the down move was aggressive and with the way FTSE and Dax tanked 4500 looked likely on the cards in next 2 weeks. However, much of the fall has been thanks to BP 20% down which is 10% of ftse which means almost 1.5% of the fall due to it. Dax closed positive and so did the other EU markets. What a terrible decision today on my part even though I could see Switzerland holding and FTSE other shares holding.
Time to rebuild and recover a loss of 10 lac.
Time to rebuild and recover a loss of 10 lac.
Really sorry to hear about this, but most traders paniced and started to sell, just not you. Others started to aggressively short the market.
Today, I could not digest the fall, as projected by the entire media, as the fall was due to Spain degrade, Spain degrade happened on Saturday, and DAX and CAC and other EU markets traded yesterday but did not fall, the base metals did not fall, but today, at FTSE opening, it was like all break loose, the main EU markets, DAX, CAC, FTSE fell but the others were holding on to about just 1 percent loss. Again confusing signals.
It was only in the end when after we closed did the real reason of BP falling 15 percent on opening came to light. Again, really funny, one BP, which is no way connected to Indian Market was the cause of India tanking 2 1/2 percent.
But what is confusing is why base metals fell more than 1 1/2 percent today in the LME market.
Today, I could not digest the fall, as projected by the entire media, as the fall was due to Spain degrade, Spain degrade happened on Saturday, and DAX and CAC and other EU markets traded yesterday but did not fall, the base metals did not fall, but today, at FTSE opening, it was like all break loose, the main EU markets, DAX, CAC, FTSE fell but the others were holding on to about just 1 percent loss. Again confusing signals.
It was only in the end when after we closed did the real reason of BP falling 15 percent on opening came to light. Again, really funny, one BP, which is no way connected to Indian Market was the cause of India tanking 2 1/2 percent.
But what is confusing is why base metals fell more than 1 1/2 percent today in the LME market.
Hey thanks for your concern. The dow is being manipulated big time for now. It rising and falling more than one percent in the last hour(The last 10 mins more specifically) completely opposite to the trend throughout the day is very manipulative. I exited everything because we got a good bounce and today most of the shares I hold were flat to up. Booked a loss but now saved capital if we fall another 10-15% from here on the Nifty which looks likely but I still dont believe it will happen because of the earnings season in US market will rally but again due to this volatility lot of companies will suffer as profit will go down due to the hedges against currency movements which has been extreme. I am bullish on world markets but would like to trade now with caution.
Germany closed green for the 5th successive day. What surprises me the most is that if EU trouble gets worse Germany would be the first country to get hammered with lot of writedowns both in their banking sector and government gurantees however its stock market has fallen the least less than 5% from the 52 week high. Also when I look back at year 2004-2006 in May when similar correction came during the bull run which many analyst predict is similar to the current one and in that down move the markets tanked atleast 30% from the peak the more time we spend at these levels the more severe the next down move can be. The good news has been completely avoided.
Then there is fear of double dip which many people are comparing to 1930s stock market crash. In 1929 post recession stocks rallied 109% from the peak. In 1930s the down leg started around may and the charts are stunningly similar. Even then the european debt crisis hit the markets. I dont believe in all this but caution is the word of the day. 5100 has failed 3 times. Each time now since the down move we have made a lower high and a higher low which is not a good signal. Plus the liquidity in the summer is very low which is another cause of concern. Just from our markets in the month of may around 6500-7000 crores has been taken out by FIIs. This is massive considering it is the first month since 2009 Jan, Feb we have seen so much outflow. Things are all not adding up.
The sudden dumping of reliance reminded me of the flash crash in US market hence if Reliance reaches that level of 840 our markets will definitely fall a lot more from current levels. The volumes in all the world markets have dried up completely. Not even a single index has broken the downward channel except FTSE which did it for a day only to close back in the downward sloping line and back in the falling trend line again now. So for me although I am bullish I am now looking for stocks which can be great for a long term time frame and preserving capital. I wish if possible we hit 4000-4200 levels on Nifty that would allow me to fill my boots with really good stocks at cheap value for the longer term. I am still in my early twenties and very young I have lot of years ahead of me. I missed the march 09 bottom as I wasn't trading then. I entered the markets in Jan when the nifty was at 5300.
Germany closed green for the 5th successive day. What surprises me the most is that if EU trouble gets worse Germany would be the first country to get hammered with lot of writedowns both in their banking sector and government gurantees however its stock market has fallen the least less than 5% from the 52 week high. Also when I look back at year 2004-2006 in May when similar correction came during the bull run which many analyst predict is similar to the current one and in that down move the markets tanked atleast 30% from the peak the more time we spend at these levels the more severe the next down move can be. The good news has been completely avoided.
Then there is fear of double dip which many people are comparing to 1930s stock market crash. In 1929 post recession stocks rallied 109% from the peak. In 1930s the down leg started around may and the charts are stunningly similar. Even then the european debt crisis hit the markets. I dont believe in all this but caution is the word of the day. 5100 has failed 3 times. Each time now since the down move we have made a lower high and a higher low which is not a good signal. Plus the liquidity in the summer is very low which is another cause of concern. Just from our markets in the month of may around 6500-7000 crores has been taken out by FIIs. This is massive considering it is the first month since 2009 Jan, Feb we have seen so much outflow. Things are all not adding up.
The sudden dumping of reliance reminded me of the flash crash in US market hence if Reliance reaches that level of 840 our markets will definitely fall a lot more from current levels. The volumes in all the world markets have dried up completely. Not even a single index has broken the downward channel except FTSE which did it for a day only to close back in the downward sloping line and back in the falling trend line again now. So for me although I am bullish I am now looking for stocks which can be great for a long term time frame and preserving capital. I wish if possible we hit 4000-4200 levels on Nifty that would allow me to fill my boots with really good stocks at cheap value for the longer term. I am still in my early twenties and very young I have lot of years ahead of me. I missed the march 09 bottom as I wasn't trading then. I entered the markets in Jan when the nifty was at 5300.
It is not easy to draw co-relation. It would just affect opening price, but after that it will follow its own way.
These are funny things - if EU is down, people will say since EU is down we should also go down. If EU is up, then people will say EU is already up, so it should fall tomorrow, hence we should fall today.
The bottom line is, it is not straight forward to draw conclusion. Better to go by our index.
Happy Trading!
These are funny things - if EU is down, people will say since EU is down we should also go down. If EU is up, then people will say EU is already up, so it should fall tomorrow, hence we should fall today.
The bottom line is, it is not straight forward to draw conclusion. Better to go by our index.
Happy Trading!
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