Long or Short Opinion

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exited now and will wait on monday

but my intuition is saying, since i have exited...market will open at some 5050 lvls or maybe down..........:cool:

lets see
Hope you are not sad by ur decision:thumb:
Nifty still not crossing the key short term resistance zone of 5200 to 5220, closing above this resistance zone may consider as the indication of trend reversal & we could expect more bounce fom there. As per the current trend of nifty future we could expect that it could hold the trading range of 5000 to 5200 for few trading sessions. traders should watch out the level of 5200, if it does not crosses this level one could short for the target of 5000 to 5005 in near term. as 5200 call written earlier mercilessly chance are less we can cross that with strength in june would buy 5100 put on gap up tomm:clap:
 

crown

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rajputz

Well-Known Member
Nifty is standing on a perfect resistance level now. Although the sell of volumes were low on the last trading sessions, still indicators are positive yet. My main trading tool CCI is still positive showing trend continuation to upside. Now that is totally based on the price movement and volume movement is not considered in it. Also i am not holding any overnight positions for the same reason of indecision. Lower Degree Chaos in play.



If i look at the oscillators, Stochastic and RSI, then the movement is little weak. Although both stochastic and RSI are more then 50 percent levels, which are good for upward movement. In this position even if price bounces to downside for some time(and oscillator making waves), the upper spikes are really good. It doesnt mean that after a little fall, the price can rise. Ultimately it is price movement that controls the movement of the stochastics.



For last few days 5140 is proving to be strong resistance. It is the pivot high for the last few trading sessions. a closing above this point can take market to the new heights. Closing Above it, with goood volume. Closing on low volume is sign of weakness. For last few days, every upmove is comprised of low volumes, which are giving a threat for fall.

Since market is weak and all the indicators that are based upon the calculation of previous days price are considered lagging, i would like to share some views about the price and volume movement and what is happening since the bull candles are forming.

25 May - Increase in Volume, Decrease in MFI - Squat - Reversal above that price.
26 May - Increase in Volume, Increase in MFI - Green Signal - To follow in the direction of Candle.
27 May - Slight Decrease in Volume, Increase in MFI - Weak Fake - Participation in buying not increased.
28 May - Decrease in volume, Decrease in MFI - Fade - Movement to upside was losing Interest.
31 May - Decrease in Volume, Increase in MFI - Fake - A fake Upward Movement not supporting by volume and Price Range.
1 Jun - Increase in Volume, Increase in MFI - Green in direction of Candle, below the closing price, which was rejected next day as price never went below the closing price.
2 Jun - Increase in Volume, Decrease in MFI - Squat - Reversal Above the High or Low of that.
3 Jun - decrease in Volume, Decrease in MFI - Fade - Gap Up was a fader, as not much interest.
4 Jun - Decrease in Volume, Increase in MFI - Fake - Fake up move near the resistance level.
7 Jun - Increase in Volume, Decrease in MFI - Squat - Again Trend Reversal above high or low.
8 Jun - Increase in Volume, Increase in MFI - Green - Again go with the candle which was down.
9 Jun - Decrease in volume, Increase in MFI - Fake - A Fake move.
10 Jun - Decrease in Volume, Increase in MFI - Fake - A Fake Move.
11 Jun - Decrease in Volume, Decrease in MFI - Fade - An another Fade move.

So market is weak according to price and volume consideration. And also price is in 50 and 61 percent retracement levels. If we get a reversal from here then this would be formation of b-c leg of the last correction wave.



So overall outlook of the market looks puzzled as indicators are showing different movement and price and volume different. But for those who only worry abt the movement in price, opportunities are there in Intraday trading. Although a picture is little unclear for the swing purposes. Indicators are up but volume and price reading is little puzzled. Also if we look at the horizontal trading lines, the nifty is just standing at the major resostance levels near 5150. which needs to be crossed with higher volumes and higher price range for supporting upmove. I will only consider if resistance is broken with good Volume.

My trading Plan will be to watch the levels of 5140 and 5090(most probably) on monday. On evidence of breaking any of these levels with good momentum will either go to upside, or will change the sail. May be Stop buy at 5142 and Stop Sell at 5088. Lets C how future unfolds.

This all interpretetion is on the Basis of EOD daily Charts.

 

rajputz

Well-Known Member
Once again proved...Follow the system properly. CCI Signals were right from the bottom till now. All the signals properly respected. Upmove still continued. Will forget everything now. The simple rule i violated was that go with the signal and forget everything (volume). All we are interested is in price.
 
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