Long or Short Opinion
- Thread starter rajputz
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You can see my post for my prediction and my accuracy. I dont want to involve in an argument with you. I just stated some facts that might go against you in your long position. I agree that India has shown strength but it is yet to make a higher high and time is running out. All the global markets have failed to make higher highs including India and that to me is a bearish signal. I would consider going long only on a few stocks which are cheap if 5400 is breached. Market is trading at P/E of around 23 and that is too expensive if you want to look through history a P/E of 15-18 is acceptable anything around 25 is just a bubble. Even in 2007 when we made a peak in Jan P/E was around 25. Everytime for the past 18 months we have a P/E of more than 22 within 2 weeks correction takes place. You can backtest the data if you want. Many thanks. Good Luck happy trading.
namaste Rajput bhai and other learned members
For the past 2-3 weeks, I am just concentrating on CCI and some other momentum indicators. And, I am really thankful to all for sharing their knowledge with amateurs like me.
One thing, which I have noticed is first I have to learn to trade the index before attempting for specific shares because the movement of index does have some specific impact on the movement of overall shares. Therefore, till I feel reasonably confident and comfortable in tracking the movement of index (I am focusing on Nifty only, one at a time); I shall not be attempting trade on shares.
Second thing, which I find useful in tracking the movement of Nifty is the relationship between the change in momentum and the actual movement taken place in Nifty. I am a bit weak in math and computer programming, therefore, I am not able to find out how I can compare these (i.e. movement in momentum i.e. CCI and the actual movement taken place in Nifty for specific period say for 14 candles on 5 minute time frame) in amibroker alf which can be seen on charts. I will be highly grateful if anyone of you can write this afl.
With raw analysis on chart's appearance, I find that currently (till yesterday closing), the momentum is against the uptrend and people are shorting at every rise.
Following image can be seen in this regard where it can be easily seen that the rise in price levels is much less as compared to rise in CCI(21).
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
For the past 2-3 weeks, I am just concentrating on CCI and some other momentum indicators. And, I am really thankful to all for sharing their knowledge with amateurs like me.
One thing, which I have noticed is first I have to learn to trade the index before attempting for specific shares because the movement of index does have some specific impact on the movement of overall shares. Therefore, till I feel reasonably confident and comfortable in tracking the movement of index (I am focusing on Nifty only, one at a time); I shall not be attempting trade on shares.
Second thing, which I find useful in tracking the movement of Nifty is the relationship between the change in momentum and the actual movement taken place in Nifty. I am a bit weak in math and computer programming, therefore, I am not able to find out how I can compare these (i.e. movement in momentum i.e. CCI and the actual movement taken place in Nifty for specific period say for 14 candles on 5 minute time frame) in amibroker alf which can be seen on charts. I will be highly grateful if anyone of you can write this afl.
With raw analysis on chart's appearance, I find that currently (till yesterday closing), the momentum is against the uptrend and people are shorting at every rise.
Following image can be seen in this regard where it can be easily seen that the rise in price levels is much less as compared to rise in CCI(21).
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Its better to understand the movement of nifty first. Cause it is less prone to manipulation. Once you get a catch over this, then try stocks.
Price move forms the CCI. The area you have marked showing price rising and cci falling suggest me a strong uptrend, where cci eventually rises with price after wards. This relation ship will take time to be understood. So concentrate on this. But keep one thing in mind that price is the ultimate indicator. Indicators follow price movement.
Well do confirm with higher time frame what is happening in market. You will get your answers. Like Hourly, daily charts.
Price move forms the CCI. The area you have marked showing price rising and cci falling suggest me a strong uptrend, where cci eventually rises with price after wards. This relation ship will take time to be understood. So concentrate on this. But keep one thing in mind that price is the ultimate indicator. Indicators follow price movement.
Well do confirm with higher time frame what is happening in market. You will get your answers. Like Hourly, daily charts.
Check BEML for shorting.
Movement is weak over stochastics. Both oscillators, stochastic and RSI are showing a fall. My cowbunga system has generated a sell on it.
Macd is also showing weak movement. It has crossed for downside move once again.
If i look at CCI, it has given a famir pattern, which shows a trend reversal can be there.
Movement is weak over stochastics. Both oscillators, stochastic and RSI are showing a fall. My cowbunga system has generated a sell on it.
Macd is also showing weak movement. It has crossed for downside move once again.
If i look at CCI, it has given a famir pattern, which shows a trend reversal can be there.
To Add , yesterday I noticed that most of analysts from USA have started talking about double dip.
ECB's loan period is getting over and Euro banks have to decide by today on loan terms and current market rate is quite high than the rate at which banks have got the loan now.
Yesterday china's fall was on the fact that report , published in april 2010 ? which showed china is growing was a calculation mistake . Actually figure is quite low than what was shown in that report.So if china is not participating in the global recovery then ...............
just one advise be alert .
ECB's loan period is getting over and Euro banks have to decide by today on loan terms and current market rate is quite high than the rate at which banks have got the loan now.
Yesterday china's fall was on the fact that report , published in april 2010 ? which showed china is growing was a calculation mistake . Actually figure is quite low than what was shown in that report.So if china is not participating in the global recovery then ...............
just one advise be alert .
Simmilar expectation for downside on geship also.
CCI has shown famir pattern. It suggests trend reversal. On CCI it is a weak famir. and if it look at adaptive CCI to remove the noise and nuances, then i can find GB100 on it. Which shows trend reversal to downside.
Cowbunga system of Stochastic and RSI has also given sell on GESHIPand movement is pretty strong.
Macd has also diverged to downside just below the 0 line, which shows the trend can be down.
So be cautious while going long in these shares.
CCI has shown famir pattern. It suggests trend reversal. On CCI it is a weak famir. and if it look at adaptive CCI to remove the noise and nuances, then i can find GB100 on it. Which shows trend reversal to downside.
Cowbunga system of Stochastic and RSI has also given sell on GESHIPand movement is pretty strong.
Macd has also diverged to downside just below the 0 line, which shows the trend can be down.
So be cautious while going long in these shares.
One thing thats worth noting on most of the shares is that CCI is showing trend reversal on most of the daily charts. Either a direct downward momentum or some pattern like Famir. But as i already mentioned that i use adaptive CCI to remove the nuances from it. The extra noise in the price that distorts the movement and decision. Well it is showing that the uptrend never formed on daily charts. It was all trend continuation to downside. It was forming either tony trade or gb100 suggesting downward move.
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