Long or Short Opinion

[nimish_rulz]

in such a scenerio I will use all my money to short the market, as always, shorting the market gives more return, than going long for short term traders.

If the double dip comes in US your wish of a war will be fulfilled too!

Btw Premji although we were expecting the market to fall I dont think any of us here was crazily short on the market. As far as I remember there are mostly long only calls on this thread.

And as far as whoever is giving a guarantee of nifty not breaking 4500 for next 3 years I am ready to buy such a protection. I say just give me 12% on my investment with a maximum downside to 4500 and you can take all the profit above that 12%.

The profits were great in 2007 and people were talking about 20,000 on the dow by 2010. S&P was gonna reach triple digit profits by 2007 end and look what happened.

I agree that I saw nifty's maximum upside @ 5400 range and maybe I have got it wrong but this is based on the valuations. If I am getting a country which grows at faster pace than India(Brazil grew at 9% last quarter) with companies much bigger than Indian firms with a P/E of below 10 (Russian firms) I would rather put my money there than India. And this has always been my argument. I am long Russia and I think I mentioned it here last week or in my thread. I have ETF exposure to Brazil, Japan etc.

I am still looking to short Indian market while looking to go long cheap stocks. In PT Bhai's thread I said to go Long KS oil, Essar Oil, Kingfisher because these stocks offered value.

Anyways I would agree with you that respect the market as it is supreme. We are all learning here and sometimes all of us get it wrong. Indications on the charts were showing that market would fall and atleast I got it wrong on Indian indices.

32% of the stocks on NSE is below the 200 DMA while 68% is above the 200 DMA while the market is at 2 year high.

 

[scplindia]

Well said Nimish. Even in this market I shorted some strong volatile stocks and made some good money. But I am not short on Nifty, will go long when it dips. Frankly, I did not expect nifty to cross 5400 with reasonable volume as well. Because this negates all the bearish signals in the chart. It can be a false move as well, as most members in this thread have been posting. Only markets can say that.

Nifty consists of 50 stocks, and quite a few of them are at 52 week highs, that is why nifty is at 52 week high. Those that are at 52 weeek high are with quite a margin. except for realestate stock in nifty I suppose most of the others are above 200 DMA.

So it is very easy for smart money to control, nifty, as they have to only bet on a few stock especially heavy weights like ITC, LEVER, ICICI, RIL, Bharti etc., to move it around in any direction they want, unlike S&P which has 500 stock.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Well said Nimish. Even in this market I shorted some strong volatile stocks and made some good money. But I am not short on Nifty, will go long when it dips. Frankly, I did not expect nifty to cross 5400 with reasonable volume as well. Because this negates all the bearish signals in the chart. It can be a false move as well, as most members in this thread have been posting. Only markets can say that.

Nifty consists of 50 stocks, and quite a few of them are at 52 week highs, that is why nifty is at 52 week high. Those that are at 52 weeek high are with quite a margin. except for realestate stock in nifty I suppose most of the others are above 200 DMA.

So it is very easy for smart money to control, nifty, as they have to only bet on a few stock especially heavy weights like ITC, LEVER, ICICI, RIL, Bharti etc., to move it around in any direction they want, unlike S&P which has 500 stock.

Plus I don't know if you check this in Dollar terms Nifty is yet to hit 52 week high. This index matters to FIIs. April High was 4200 now it is around 4000. Yet a long way away.

Besides this also gives you a good measure of your return compared to Inflation in other words provides a good proxy for inflation adjusted returns. As dollar is worlds local currency.

 

[scplindia]

sgx nifty is suggesting we will see 5450 today, means short squeese will take it even further during the day, if glpbal cues support. Not good news for all those who are short from 5400.

 

[simple_trader]

sgx nifty is suggesting we will see 5450 today, means short squeese will take it even further during the day, if glpbal cues support. Not good news for all those who are short from 5400.

Expect volatile day of trading today. We will be opening exactly at weekly resistance (5470 NF). It would be interesting!

I do not hold any position, but wondering why you think if anyone is short at 5400 will panic today? See if anyone is short, he would have considered all these situations and would be managing his position.

All are not like retail traders, trade with hit and run theory.

 

[scplindia]

Dear ST,

Futures is a zero sum game, for every seller of contract their is a buyer. Which means there are so many who have shorted the market as the open interest suggests.

Shorts are needed for a healthy market. Not everybody is long in any market in the world. Not everybody who has shorted is a well planned shorter, there are thuka masters as well, some trading on hope, these traders will definitely panic.

Well planned shorters who have hedged their longs with shorts, may also exit, when they see market is not giving up.

Cheers,
Prem Kumar

 

[rajputz]

Last Five days of trading on nifty on the basis of Volumes is quite interesting: -

7th July - Volume increased on small price range, which suggested a down or upmove over the high and low of that day. Usually this type of movement is either a distribution or accumulation. price Range was 63 points.

8th july - Volume was almost the same, little less, but the price range increased, which showed no strength in the movement. price Range was 78 points.

9th July - Again we had a narrow price range and increase in volume. A distribution or accumulation phase again. price range was 62.

12th July - We had a little or not much decrease in volume over a narrower price range, which again was a sign of distribution or accumulation. On this day volumes were considerably high, and i think that these large volume at 5300-5400 level is not accumulation by smart money. Price range was 51.

13th July - It was again increase in volume over a narrower price range. Remember that range is in accordance to previous days bar and not any other. This was again either accumulation or distribution phase. Price range was 49.

Last three days are considerably interesting for me as these three days volume was higher then before over a narrower price range. Although trading above previous highs market can drift higher.

My believe is that it is not the accumulation by the smart money, cause they take position at bottom and create the move. But even if it is smart money, i will not like to follow them at so much heights when i can feel weakness and discomfort in going long.

I am not having any position in Nifty, but will like to wait and see for the sign of shorting the market.

 

[aditya14]

Sure buddy, it would be difficult to foresee this now. I have written based on my 7-8 years of trading exp. I can be wrong as anybody can be in the market. 4500 can not be a trading target for anybody, also even if market goes to 4500, it would not be a market crash etc. It will do step fall.

At any case, I am not forcing to buy theory. Just written what I have understood.

On lighter notes, who are three idiots, Market, you and I?

Sorry, I have not watched the movie or have not read the novel either!

Happy trading!

yeah it seems we are the three idiots .....

Anyways 6 straight days of US rally 7% up and now we will take a breather i would assume....

52 week high broken and now some people say measure it in dollars and we are not 52 week high.This is height of Bear sentiment i have never heard such things even from our esteemed jokers at CNBC.

 

[nimish_rulz]

yeah it seems we are the three idiots .....

Anyways 6 straight days of US rally 7% up and now we will take a breather i would assume....

52 week high broken and now some people say measure it in dollars and we are not 52 week high.This is height of Bear sentiment i have never heard such things even from our esteemed jokers at CNBC.

On the contrary note I like this post the most of all the posts in this forum. This really shows some one is really jealous of me and hates me to the core or hates my analysis. I must have got something right hence this response. Thank you dear Aditya!

Dear I am not bearish on all the markets. All I am saying is the risk to reward on Indian market is not favourable and hence I am not buying now exited everything around 5270 levels.
I am not some1 who would say buy the market at this point. Look at my previous posts where I correctly pointed out around 4800 levels that all is not doomed and now we should buy for earnings season and prepare for it. Also the dollar index previously mentioned is for the level that still there might be more upside because our index in dollar terms has not yet hit 52 week high.
But once again thanks a lot for this post I will cherish it.

 

[SwingKing]

Well am not supporting Nimish, neither am I refuting Aditya's view.

But FII Fund managers definitely view the Index in Dollar terms. It's just common sense and a well documented fact. But that does not mean the new high in non dollar terms is of no value.

Tc