Long or Short Opinion

[scplindia]

Can some body check, whats going on with maruti with so much good results and nothing bad....with good fundamentals too it is going down. Check NTPC too. Its also not rising. I am attaching a link to todays buisness standard news of Maruti. Please check and comment.

http://www.mediafire.com/?jg1zokmrud0

Auto sector has a whole had a good run up, so did maruti and hero honda. Both fell after good results as the big guys are exiting and booking part profits at higher levels. This has been their strategy all ways.

 

[rajputz]

Rajputz grid lines on the charts as well as a soothing color combination will make analysis more easier. Just can't see levels on the charts you post. Hope you understand.

Tc.

I will try to do the modifications at EOD sir. Will try to make it like chart nexus. Those are much appropriate i think. I will only keep my intraday AFL the same type. Black Combi.

 

[SwingKing]

Can some body check, whats going on with maruti with so much good results and nothing bad....with good fundamentals too it is going down. Check NTPC too. Its also not rising. I am attaching a link to todays buisness standard news of Maruti. Please check and comment.

http://www.mediafire.com/?jg1zokmrud0

Automobiles and Technology have primarily lead the rally. Rest of the sectors (Utilities, Services, Consumer staples, Consumer cyclical, Reality) have all been largely side ways. If you see closely, fundamentally, the auto sectors are doing very well. But, the advent of rate hike put's a question mark on future performance. Automobile is one of the highly rate hike sensitive sectors. And since the RBI has begun monetary tightening, market's are just discounting things forward. The period of easy money making is over now. With more rate hikes ahead, the automobile, reality and other rate hike sensitive sectors will probably lag behind. This is purely sector rotation and as economy enters the middle expansion phase, sectors like capital goods, basic materials and services sector should start performing better.

Technically, if Maruti does not stabilize on 1200, then levels of 1000 would not be far off. My second guess is that Maruti should stabilize around 1200 for sometime.

Tc

 

[scplindia]

There will not be a deep cut on rate senstives as banks are not passing on the rate hikes, infact, pl recall, the bank did not reduce the interest rates to the extend the RBI was cutting in 2008, 2009, so they have buffer still to hold on before increasing the interest rates. Can you throw some light on TATA motors, it is continuing its dream run, when and where do you think it will stop. Any idea on its results, when is it due.

 

[rajputz]

Rajputz grid lines on the charts as well as a soothing color combination will make analysis more easier. Just can't see levels on the charts you post. Hope you understand.

Tc.

Raunak sir,

i tried to sooth the colors, but the things get worse.
I rather added the grid which will be much of helpfull... in the mean time i will post the 1024x768 resolution pic. Please tell if it is helpful. Otherwise i will use chart nexus only to put the charts.

Check this if it helps: -

 

[rajputz]

Simmilar Longs as given by Hindalco are shown by M&M. Everything is suggesting an upmove. Only contradicting factor is that the share is in downtrend. And if price falls tomorrow then it can be trend continuation to downside. So it is a cautious buy.

Intraday Chart of M&M

 

[SwingKing]

Raunak sir,

i tried to sooth the colors, but the things get worse.
I rather added the grid which will be much of helpfull... in the mean time i will post the 1024x768 resolution pic. Please tell if it is helpful. Otherwise i will use chart nexus only to put the charts.

Check this if it helps: -

Thanks dear. This is much much better. Grids make charts a lot better.

Tc.

 

[rajputz]

Tony Trade on Nifty 15 min Charts. Dont go Long yet. Wait. Nifty in No trade Zone.

 

[rajputz]

Nifty after tony trade.

 

[nimish_rulz]

Automobiles and Technology have primarily lead the rally. Rest of the sectors (Utilities, Services, Consumer staples, Consumer cyclical, Reality) have all been largely side ways. If you see closely, fundamentally, the auto sectors are doing very well. But, the advent of rate hike put's a question mark on future performance. Automobile is one of the highly rate hike sensitive sectors. And since the RBI has begun monetary tightening, market's are just discounting things forward. The period of easy money making is over now. With more rate hikes ahead, the automobile, reality and other rate hike sensitive sectors will probably lag behind. This is purely sector rotation and as economy enters the middle expansion phase, sectors like capital goods, basic materials and services sector should start performing better.

Technically, if Maruti does not stabilize on 1200, then levels of 1000 would not be far off. My second guess is that Maruti should stabilize around 1200 for sometime.

Tc

I agree with Raunak mostly but not of the view that Maruti will fall further. A profit of 170% with a bottom line growth and revenues going up signals that stock is fundamentally sound. How on earth can analysts expect a stock to give profits of 200% that is crazy all manipulative. The price to book valuation is not expensive, the PE is one of the cheapest in the auto sector. Plus on Maruti interest hike should have a positive impact.
Think of it this way:
Scenario 1: When the price of money i.e the interest rate is low, people tend to spend more and borrow more hence they will go for a better car than they would have if price of money was high. Hence a person who was planing to buy a maruti 800 would have gone on to buy a santro or maybe a tata indica. As the money was cheap so extra 40,000-50,000 would not have bothered him that much.
Scenario 2:
But when the price of money is high that is interest rates go up, the person would tend to buy what he requires and not go for the extra bit of satisfaction. Hence I would assume that Interest rate although would negatively Affect the auto sector but I would say it would allow maruti to outperform the other Auto companies. Hence if you are keen to invest in auto, maruti looks a very good bet.