Morning Update at 0800hrs for Intraday Market Level
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markets for 25 sept 09
the way markets bounced back to 5005 levels after the dow & sgx operators induced initial fall which took nse index down to 4900 levels, clearly indicates that large funds waiting out side are just looking out for such intraday falls to enter the indian markets. You will see us markets with both dow & s&p500 will fall or at least pause for 2 more days which will give ample opportunities for indian investors sitting on the fence as well as large fund houses sitting with large amount of cash to enter indian markets whenever such intraday fall occurs. The chart patterns of both nifty & sensex are entirely different from rest of the world markets. The charts indicate mega bullish phase for indian markets & the present pause that is taking place in nifty & sensex is just induced by us markets and after the pause around 5000 to 4900 levels for a day or two more, one will see another sharp move to shoot past 5200 levels.
Technically, if one has a look at the hourly chart above, one will clearly notice that confluence of fibonacci 5,8,13,21 & 34 ema around 4960 levels and on thursday, the moment nifty crossed 4960 levels, a sharp up move was seen towards 5000 levels. On friday the same area of ema compression around 4960 levels will provide a strong support for nifty. Last friday nifty had closed at 4976. So, on this friday, operators will go all out to bring down nifty to close below the last weeks closings of 4976 to thwart 3 consecutive weeks of higher weekly closings. Most likely dow operators may be successful this time as next monday is also a holiday and traders may not prefer to carry heavy positions.
For intraday trading on friday, nifty may find initial support around 4973, below which the area of ema compression around 4960 will show some bounce. Although operators of sgx nifty will generate their common opening phobia to take nifty below 4960 and pull down nifty towards the next critical support around 4930, ultimately nifty will bounce up to close either flat or mildly negative at the worst. In case dow operators" whipping boys in asian indices dont bow down again like thursday, then nifty can move up on friday. On the higher side nifty has intraday resistance around thursdays high of 5005, a decisive breach of which may take nifty towards the critical resistance around 5023 to 5028. A decisive breach of 5028 can see a sharp up move towards 5066 or higher levels with the tuesdays highs around 5035 looking as a silent observer. All in all, with the holiday on monday 28th sept, expect another dow & sgx operators induced fall followed by another sharp rise to close flat or mild as was seen on thursday. Operators favorite & index heavy reliance & icici bank will play a major roll on friday in deciding the fate of nifty closing this week.
the way markets bounced back to 5005 levels after the dow & sgx operators induced initial fall which took nse index down to 4900 levels, clearly indicates that large funds waiting out side are just looking out for such intraday falls to enter the indian markets. You will see us markets with both dow & s&p500 will fall or at least pause for 2 more days which will give ample opportunities for indian investors sitting on the fence as well as large fund houses sitting with large amount of cash to enter indian markets whenever such intraday fall occurs. The chart patterns of both nifty & sensex are entirely different from rest of the world markets. The charts indicate mega bullish phase for indian markets & the present pause that is taking place in nifty & sensex is just induced by us markets and after the pause around 5000 to 4900 levels for a day or two more, one will see another sharp move to shoot past 5200 levels.
Technically, if one has a look at the hourly chart above, one will clearly notice that confluence of fibonacci 5,8,13,21 & 34 ema around 4960 levels and on thursday, the moment nifty crossed 4960 levels, a sharp up move was seen towards 5000 levels. On friday the same area of ema compression around 4960 levels will provide a strong support for nifty. Last friday nifty had closed at 4976. So, on this friday, operators will go all out to bring down nifty to close below the last weeks closings of 4976 to thwart 3 consecutive weeks of higher weekly closings. Most likely dow operators may be successful this time as next monday is also a holiday and traders may not prefer to carry heavy positions.
For intraday trading on friday, nifty may find initial support around 4973, below which the area of ema compression around 4960 will show some bounce. Although operators of sgx nifty will generate their common opening phobia to take nifty below 4960 and pull down nifty towards the next critical support around 4930, ultimately nifty will bounce up to close either flat or mildly negative at the worst. In case dow operators" whipping boys in asian indices dont bow down again like thursday, then nifty can move up on friday. On the higher side nifty has intraday resistance around thursdays high of 5005, a decisive breach of which may take nifty towards the critical resistance around 5023 to 5028. A decisive breach of 5028 can see a sharp up move towards 5066 or higher levels with the tuesdays highs around 5035 looking as a silent observer. All in all, with the holiday on monday 28th sept, expect another dow & sgx operators induced fall followed by another sharp rise to close flat or mild as was seen on thursday. Operators favorite & index heavy reliance & icici bank will play a major roll on friday in deciding the fate of nifty closing this week.
morning update at 8 am 25 sept 09
as expected dow continued with its 2nd day of fall but recovered from a 88 point loss to close with a 41 point loss. European markets which closed when dow was at its worst for the day closed nearly 1.5% down with uk ftse closing down by 1.2%. Brazil closed down by .7%.asian markets following dow blindly have opened weak but will recover substantially by the end of their trading.
For indian markets one should not be surprised to see a repeat of thursday but the bounce may not be like thursday. In case bulls fail to protect the support around 4960 levels, there is every possibility of nifty slipping down to 4947 followed by 4929. However if the critical support around 4929 is decisively breached then breach of 4900 followed by 4884 looks to be a distinct possibility. Most likely nifty will bounce back from the critical support around 4929.in case after 2 weeks of +ve weekly closings, nifty closes negative on this week by closing below 4976, then one can be reasonably sure to see another -ve or a flat week for week ending 1st october which will have only 3 trading days with monday 28th sept & friday 2nd october being holidays. This will compensate for the entire big rise during sept 09.
With monday being a holiday again, it is wiser to hedge both long & short positions. As nifty falls towards 4900 or lower levels, one may initiate long positions and buy 5000 calls to quit or book profit around end of the day. For carrying over for tuesday, calls of 5000 may be bought as nifty is around or below 4900 and as nifty bounces towards the middle or end of the day, puts of 4900 may be bought & both calls & puts may be carried in the ratio of 2 calls to 1 put. It is wiser to go light for next week to enjoy the long week end.
as expected dow continued with its 2nd day of fall but recovered from a 88 point loss to close with a 41 point loss. European markets which closed when dow was at its worst for the day closed nearly 1.5% down with uk ftse closing down by 1.2%. Brazil closed down by .7%.asian markets following dow blindly have opened weak but will recover substantially by the end of their trading.
For indian markets one should not be surprised to see a repeat of thursday but the bounce may not be like thursday. In case bulls fail to protect the support around 4960 levels, there is every possibility of nifty slipping down to 4947 followed by 4929. However if the critical support around 4929 is decisively breached then breach of 4900 followed by 4884 looks to be a distinct possibility. Most likely nifty will bounce back from the critical support around 4929.in case after 2 weeks of +ve weekly closings, nifty closes negative on this week by closing below 4976, then one can be reasonably sure to see another -ve or a flat week for week ending 1st october which will have only 3 trading days with monday 28th sept & friday 2nd october being holidays. This will compensate for the entire big rise during sept 09.
With monday being a holiday again, it is wiser to hedge both long & short positions. As nifty falls towards 4900 or lower levels, one may initiate long positions and buy 5000 calls to quit or book profit around end of the day. For carrying over for tuesday, calls of 5000 may be bought as nifty is around or below 4900 and as nifty bounces towards the middle or end of the day, puts of 4900 may be bought & both calls & puts may be carried in the ratio of 2 calls to 1 put. It is wiser to go light for next week to enjoy the long week end.
weekly markets analysis for week ending 01 october 09
being an extremely truncated week of 3 trading days only, it is highly possible that the nifty range will be confined within the range of last week with a +ve bias. A decisive breach of 4929 followed by 4900 on any day can shift weekly lows towards important fibonacci support around 4880 followed by 4860 from where solid buying support is likely to emerge. On the higher side, a decisive breach of 5025 can take nifty to shoot past last weeks highs of 5035 to move up towards 5066.there is no change to most of the paragraphs of last week given below and they are left mostly unchanged with slight additions & deletions here & there.
It was cleary mentioned last month that in bull markets like we are now, the month of september has always either made a new high compared to august or closed higher than august highs. Well, the magic level of 5000 was tested by nifty which was not celebrated by many, as they still think the present up move to be a bear market rally. Sensex & nifty had fallen from the jan 08 highs of 21207 & 6357 to october 08 lows of 7697 & 2252. One after the other, each of the critical fibonacci levels of 38.2% at 12858 & 3820, 50% at 14452 & 4305 & finally 61.8% at 16046 & 4788 have been decisively breached by the indices & still many have doubts in their minds as to whether this is real bull market or a bear market rally. Similar feelings were also there during the previous bull market that started in april 2003 and had got strengthened after the 17th may 04 election result day fall. Surprisingly markets continued with the bull market cycle with the rally for next 4 years till early january 2008.
Traders & investors should be absolutely sure in their minds that, this bearish sentiment will continue to remain in the minds of many, even till the last bull market highs of 21207 & 6357 are breached by sensex & nifty & even then also, they will think that perhaps a double head formation is likely, only to find sensex & nifty slowly but surely rise to the next 1.618 fibonacci levels of 29555 & 8894 in coming months around feb 2011. Market cycles are unique in itself & generally all strong bull market rallies thrive on such contra sentiments of bearishness. Well, the corrections will be there as these corrections are part & parcel of every bull market but the present cycle since 6th march 09 is definitely a fresh bull market cycle and every correction should be fully used by long term investors to go long only, although short term & intraday traders may trade on both sides to take advantage of short term or intraday swings. As long as both sensex & nifty continue to trade above 19th august lows of 14684 & 4353 there should be absolutely no fear in the minds of long term & even medium term investors.
The way markets overcame the fears of world economic melt down, bird flu, fears of scanty rain fall, drought, china factor ( both chinese stock market & over exaggerated story of incursions) & more importantly the rhythmic bearish inducement by some financial news channels, clearly shows that the markets in for a mega bullish phase and after each of such bearish wind, the markets become more & more stronger. Having successfully protected the supports at sensex & nifty levels of 13220 & 3919,14684 & 4353,15357 & 4580, last week both the indices formed a new support around 16120 & 4783 to which swing traders may use as a new swing low to remain long till 5200+ levels. For the coming week a day or two of close below sensex & nifty closing levels of 16216 & 4959 may perhaps be the early indication of a mild routine correction after such a big up move during september.
being an extremely truncated week of 3 trading days only, it is highly possible that the nifty range will be confined within the range of last week with a +ve bias. A decisive breach of 4929 followed by 4900 on any day can shift weekly lows towards important fibonacci support around 4880 followed by 4860 from where solid buying support is likely to emerge. On the higher side, a decisive breach of 5025 can take nifty to shoot past last weeks highs of 5035 to move up towards 5066.there is no change to most of the paragraphs of last week given below and they are left mostly unchanged with slight additions & deletions here & there.
It was cleary mentioned last month that in bull markets like we are now, the month of september has always either made a new high compared to august or closed higher than august highs. Well, the magic level of 5000 was tested by nifty which was not celebrated by many, as they still think the present up move to be a bear market rally. Sensex & nifty had fallen from the jan 08 highs of 21207 & 6357 to october 08 lows of 7697 & 2252. One after the other, each of the critical fibonacci levels of 38.2% at 12858 & 3820, 50% at 14452 & 4305 & finally 61.8% at 16046 & 4788 have been decisively breached by the indices & still many have doubts in their minds as to whether this is real bull market or a bear market rally. Similar feelings were also there during the previous bull market that started in april 2003 and had got strengthened after the 17th may 04 election result day fall. Surprisingly markets continued with the bull market cycle with the rally for next 4 years till early january 2008.
Traders & investors should be absolutely sure in their minds that, this bearish sentiment will continue to remain in the minds of many, even till the last bull market highs of 21207 & 6357 are breached by sensex & nifty & even then also, they will think that perhaps a double head formation is likely, only to find sensex & nifty slowly but surely rise to the next 1.618 fibonacci levels of 29555 & 8894 in coming months around feb 2011. Market cycles are unique in itself & generally all strong bull market rallies thrive on such contra sentiments of bearishness. Well, the corrections will be there as these corrections are part & parcel of every bull market but the present cycle since 6th march 09 is definitely a fresh bull market cycle and every correction should be fully used by long term investors to go long only, although short term & intraday traders may trade on both sides to take advantage of short term or intraday swings. As long as both sensex & nifty continue to trade above 19th august lows of 14684 & 4353 there should be absolutely no fear in the minds of long term & even medium term investors.
The way markets overcame the fears of world economic melt down, bird flu, fears of scanty rain fall, drought, china factor ( both chinese stock market & over exaggerated story of incursions) & more importantly the rhythmic bearish inducement by some financial news channels, clearly shows that the markets in for a mega bullish phase and after each of such bearish wind, the markets become more & more stronger. Having successfully protected the supports at sensex & nifty levels of 13220 & 3919,14684 & 4353,15357 & 4580, last week both the indices formed a new support around 16120 & 4783 to which swing traders may use as a new swing low to remain long till 5200+ levels. For the coming week a day or two of close below sensex & nifty closing levels of 16216 & 4959 may perhaps be the early indication of a mild routine correction after such a big up move during september.
weekly technicals for week ending 01 october 09
there is no change to our earlier analysis of monthly charts where all the indicators are giving super bullish signals with both monthly macd & rsi showing the greatest strength that can take indices to much higher levels. In the monthly charts, the month of august has ended with a perfect doji around sensex & nifty levels of 15666 & 4666. Presently indices are trading high above 16002 & 4744 which were the highs of august months doji. A decisive close above the high of this august month doji should take the indices to much higher levels unless the indices fall to close below these levels by month end. With 6 trading days still balance for sept month to close, one should not be surprised to see the indices being pulled down to thwart an out right long term bullish indication as per candle stick charts. Other indicators including ma cross over of 13 month ma by 8 month ma as was mentioned last week continue to generate bullish signals in the monthly charts.
The weekly charts continue to generate bullish signals although some trend following indicator like stochastic looks lethargic around the upper zone. Similarly rsi at 68 looks gasping for steam to move up. Weekly macd too has reached a stalling point. However against these sluggish indicators, weekly trend indicator adx around 48 high above the +ve direction indicator at 37 & -ve di at 7 is a bullish trend signal. Weekly roc 10 is presently at 13 levels also signaling bullishness having turned up after making a hook around the 0 level
in addition to the weekly indicators above, there are 3 distinct indications that depict strong bullish signal in the weekly charts. Firstly, this weeks weekly closing of nifty at 4959 & previous weeks closing at 4976, decisively above 4693 which was the high of the perfect doji which was formed for the week ended 12 june 09.this closure of nifty high above the doji was also accompanied by decisive breach of the resistance line which is a perfect bullish trade setup "hcd" & is a mega bullish signal to go long on every small decline. This trade set up can only be nullified by a fall in index to close below the resistance line as well as below the low of that doji at 4365 which can only happen under catastrophic circumstances. Secondly, 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts in it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks. Thirdly, the clear cup handle formation between 12 june & 28 august with base at 3919 & neck line decisively breached around 4744 can easily take nifty to cover the depth of the cup by moving up till 5555 magic levels.
These many bullish indications mentioned above are enough for the bulls to rejoice about without even thinking about the much larger reverse head & solder formation being made by joining the solder line between the weekly highs of 4680 for week ending 20 june 08 & high of 4731 for week ending 7th august 09 with head at the october 08 lows of 2252.well, bulls may think of it only after nifty falls to test the neck line around the 4700 levels to bounce back in lightening speed to shoot past the all time highs.
The indicators in the daily eod charts which had gathered strength during week ending 18th sept after nifty broke out of the 5 days of flat closings between 8th sept till 14th sept are consolidating after making a high of 5035 last week. Most of the indicators are either in the upper zone or have started to drupe down from the upper zone that may give another set of flat days to pause around and enjoy a bit more of the psychological 5000 levels by flirting around it in coming one or two weeks. Coming weeks being truncated weeks with trading holidays on both monday & friday 02 october, another set of pause or mildly corrective days can not be ruled out which will form the spring board for another sharp up move during october to prove the pundits wrong, who believe that october month is always bad for markets. So, all in all, till such time nifty does not decisively cross & close above the 5000 levels, one should be mentally prepared for another set of pause or alternate days of up & down move during the coming 3 day truncated week.
there is no change to our earlier analysis of monthly charts where all the indicators are giving super bullish signals with both monthly macd & rsi showing the greatest strength that can take indices to much higher levels. In the monthly charts, the month of august has ended with a perfect doji around sensex & nifty levels of 15666 & 4666. Presently indices are trading high above 16002 & 4744 which were the highs of august months doji. A decisive close above the high of this august month doji should take the indices to much higher levels unless the indices fall to close below these levels by month end. With 6 trading days still balance for sept month to close, one should not be surprised to see the indices being pulled down to thwart an out right long term bullish indication as per candle stick charts. Other indicators including ma cross over of 13 month ma by 8 month ma as was mentioned last week continue to generate bullish signals in the monthly charts.
The weekly charts continue to generate bullish signals although some trend following indicator like stochastic looks lethargic around the upper zone. Similarly rsi at 68 looks gasping for steam to move up. Weekly macd too has reached a stalling point. However against these sluggish indicators, weekly trend indicator adx around 48 high above the +ve direction indicator at 37 & -ve di at 7 is a bullish trend signal. Weekly roc 10 is presently at 13 levels also signaling bullishness having turned up after making a hook around the 0 level
in addition to the weekly indicators above, there are 3 distinct indications that depict strong bullish signal in the weekly charts. Firstly, this weeks weekly closing of nifty at 4959 & previous weeks closing at 4976, decisively above 4693 which was the high of the perfect doji which was formed for the week ended 12 june 09.this closure of nifty high above the doji was also accompanied by decisive breach of the resistance line which is a perfect bullish trade setup "hcd" & is a mega bullish signal to go long on every small decline. This trade set up can only be nullified by a fall in index to close below the resistance line as well as below the low of that doji at 4365 which can only happen under catastrophic circumstances. Secondly, 50 week ema decisively crossing 200 week ema in the 5 year long term weekly charts in it self can single handedly take the indices above the all time highs of 21207 & 6357 in coming weeks. Thirdly, the clear cup handle formation between 12 june & 28 august with base at 3919 & neck line decisively breached around 4744 can easily take nifty to cover the depth of the cup by moving up till 5555 magic levels.
These many bullish indications mentioned above are enough for the bulls to rejoice about without even thinking about the much larger reverse head & solder formation being made by joining the solder line between the weekly highs of 4680 for week ending 20 june 08 & high of 4731 for week ending 7th august 09 with head at the october 08 lows of 2252.well, bulls may think of it only after nifty falls to test the neck line around the 4700 levels to bounce back in lightening speed to shoot past the all time highs.
The indicators in the daily eod charts which had gathered strength during week ending 18th sept after nifty broke out of the 5 days of flat closings between 8th sept till 14th sept are consolidating after making a high of 5035 last week. Most of the indicators are either in the upper zone or have started to drupe down from the upper zone that may give another set of flat days to pause around and enjoy a bit more of the psychological 5000 levels by flirting around it in coming one or two weeks. Coming weeks being truncated weeks with trading holidays on both monday & friday 02 october, another set of pause or mildly corrective days can not be ruled out which will form the spring board for another sharp up move during october to prove the pundits wrong, who believe that october month is always bad for markets. So, all in all, till such time nifty does not decisively cross & close above the 5000 levels, one should be mentally prepared for another set of pause or alternate days of up & down move during the coming 3 day truncated week.
elliott wave count for week ending 01 october 09
there is no change to our last weeks elliott wave analysis which is reproduced below for this week:--
we have assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and can move up to cross the all time highs of 6357 .this 3rd major up wave will have 5 sub waves with 3 sub waves up and 2 sub waves flat or down. On 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. As of now we are in the 1st sub sub leg of the 3rd sub wave of 3rd wave.as per daily eod chart, 5 mini waves of this up leg from the lows of 4353 seems to have been completed with the high of 5036 on 22nd sept 09.
There could be another possibility that the up leg that started from lows of 4353, has completed its 1st up sub leg at 27th august high of 4744 & after a 2nd down sub leg correction till 4th sept low of 4580, next sub up leg of 5 legs has started of which one up leg is over at 4889 on 10 sept & after a small 2nd leg correction of 5 days of flat till 14th sept lows of 4786, nifty as on 25th sept, is in the 3rd up sub sub leg that can go till 5200+. Levels after a minor correction or flat formation during the week.
there is no change to our last weeks elliott wave analysis which is reproduced below for this week:--
we have assumed that fresh bull move had started from 6th march low of 2539. The 1st up wave was completed on 12 june high of 4693.the 2nd wave a,b,c correction came down till 13 july low of 3919. The 3rd up wave started from the low of 3919 and can move up to cross the all time highs of 6357 .this 3rd major up wave will have 5 sub waves with 3 sub waves up and 2 sub waves flat or down. On 4th august the 1st sub wave of this 3rd wave was completed with the highs around 4731 and the 2nd sub wave abc downward correction started. As of now we are in the 1st sub sub leg of the 3rd sub wave of 3rd wave.as per daily eod chart, 5 mini waves of this up leg from the lows of 4353 seems to have been completed with the high of 5036 on 22nd sept 09.
There could be another possibility that the up leg that started from lows of 4353, has completed its 1st up sub leg at 27th august high of 4744 & after a 2nd down sub leg correction till 4th sept low of 4580, next sub up leg of 5 legs has started of which one up leg is over at 4889 on 10 sept & after a small 2nd leg correction of 5 days of flat till 14th sept lows of 4786, nifty as on 25th sept, is in the 3rd up sub sub leg that can go till 5200+. Levels after a minor correction or flat formation during the week.
fibonacci levels for nifty
during the course of last 3 weeks, the indices have decisively crossed fibonacci levels of 16046 & 4788 which was the 61.8% retracement level from the last bull market highs of 21207 & 6357 till the bear market lows of 7697 & 2252.
Having breached the important fibonacci level as above, for further study of fibonacci levels we will confine our studies to the further up sub & sub sub waves which have started from 19th august low of 4353.the 1st sub sub wave of 3rd sub wave of 3rd up wave started from low of 4353 & went up till 4744 covering a distance of 391 points. The 2nd corrective sub sub wave came down till 4580 levels.
The new 3rd sub sub wave which has started from friday 4th sept low of 4580, went up till 10th sept highs of 4889 covering a distance of 309 points. After a 5 days of flat, the next up leg has started from 14th sept lows of 4786.this up leg can move up to various fibonacci multiples of 309 with 38.2% till 5213, 50% till 5250 and 61.8% till 5286.in case of a down swing during week ending 1st october 09, nifty has fibonacci supports around 4880 followed by 4862 levels.
during the course of last 3 weeks, the indices have decisively crossed fibonacci levels of 16046 & 4788 which was the 61.8% retracement level from the last bull market highs of 21207 & 6357 till the bear market lows of 7697 & 2252.
Having breached the important fibonacci level as above, for further study of fibonacci levels we will confine our studies to the further up sub & sub sub waves which have started from 19th august low of 4353.the 1st sub sub wave of 3rd sub wave of 3rd up wave started from low of 4353 & went up till 4744 covering a distance of 391 points. The 2nd corrective sub sub wave came down till 4580 levels.
The new 3rd sub sub wave which has started from friday 4th sept low of 4580, went up till 10th sept highs of 4889 covering a distance of 309 points. After a 5 days of flat, the next up leg has started from 14th sept lows of 4786.this up leg can move up to various fibonacci multiples of 309 with 38.2% till 5213, 50% till 5250 and 61.8% till 5286.in case of a down swing during week ending 1st october 09, nifty has fibonacci supports around 4880 followed by 4862 levels.
weekly trading range for week ending 01 october 09
as long as 4930 is not breached on any day, the weekly lows may be around 4930. However a decisive breach of 4930 can bring down nifty towards last weeks lows around 4900 followed by 4880 & 4860. On the higher side a decisive breach of 4990 can take nifty towards the highs around 5025. However, a decisive breach of 5025 on the higher side can take nifty to shoot past last weeks highs of 5035 to move up towards 5066.
as long as 4930 is not breached on any day, the weekly lows may be around 4930. However a decisive breach of 4930 can bring down nifty towards last weeks lows around 4900 followed by 4880 & 4860. On the higher side a decisive breach of 4990 can take nifty towards the highs around 5025. However, a decisive breach of 5025 on the higher side can take nifty to shoot past last weeks highs of 5035 to move up towards 5066.
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