Mother of All trading threads!- Stocks, Indices, Commodities and Currencies!

[nimish_rulz]

Nimish,

What Global Market does, India has its own path, Global cues are used for market opening or closing.

Agreed, the global markets have hit a bear phase, all of them are far below 200 DMA. India is far above 200 DMA.

Yesterday, we pulled up over a percent, how do you explain that. We should have atleast remained flat, there was no global cues suggesting over 1 percent pull up. The only cues we had was US Fut, and EU was trading 1/2 percent up. But these markets have fallen over 3 to 4 percent the previous day, compared to only 1.5 percent fall of Indian Market. There was also no positive news in India. Infosys was one of the companies responsible for the last min pull up. Yesterday, With BP cutting 10 percent of Budget and a major cut in IT spending, how do you justify the pull up of Infosys. Just because there was a sea of green in global indices, during close, Indian market ran up, even the percentage was not important, just the colour, that is the only justification I can find.

Infact, I have to confess that I lost money expecting Flat close, not such a huge last min pull up, that too above 5300 comfortably.

DOW was at 11600, we were just above 5350, now DOW is at 9800 we are just below 5350. Cleary shows that we are insulated from the Global Financial, Economic problems. I donot know how, but that is what markets are suggesting. You said 65 percent of GDP is from local consumption and only 15 percent from exports. May be that is the answer.

Cheers
Prem Kumar

Bhai patience. You are more experienced than me as I am very very young but if you see the charts there is always a correction in order of 20-30% in a bull run and I think that has started. 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 and it always happens in even year. I don't think this year would be any different. People are starting to doubt global recovery. India is not insulated in this global environment. It is just a matter of days when the FIIs start plugging out the money pumped in by them we will fall like pack of cards. For me the Mutual Fund and domestic investors like LIC know our economy better than the FIIs and DIIs started selling our market the day it became expensive and the P/E went over 22. You won't see a single day of buying in last month from DIIs it has just been the FIIs. They were buying in April when the market made a peak they were buying in Jan 2008 when market made a peak and they were dumping in March 2009 and April 2009 while DIIs were buying the market at that time.
We are a $1.5 trillion economy out of the $54 trillion world economy. If the world slows down we will definitely slow down.

Even after so many positive news we never breached the high why do you think that happened?

Just wait. You are looking at only few shares that went up Oil and Gas Banks etc. Please look at the other shares they are in mess Real Estate sector, Metals, IT(still hasnt breached april highs). Small cap stocks, Mid cap stocks etc.

I just believe this is the distribution phase in our markets. Now it is consistently failing to even breach 5330 let alone 5400.

And if you believe India will do well and believe in your investment decision, that should not allow you to stop investing in the market I maybe 100% wrong.

Have faith in your trading system and your trading strategy. I am just saying what mine says. Look at the commodities market they are all in bear phase too. Exception GOLD and SILVER.

 

[SwingKing]

Look at the commodities market they are all in bear phase too. Exception GOLD and SILVER.

Nimish just a word on this.

Gold can never be linked to any commodity class. Gold has a mind of its own and this is largely because it is viewed as a hedge instrument globally. Historically, Gold attracts investments when markets underneath carry substantial risk.

I share your opinion about a possible correction. When I see how Gold is shaping up and the way Treasury bond Index is rallying, there is a clear indication that money is shifting towards safe assets. In my opinion, markets rallying from 4800 to 5300 or even to 5500 do not change the longer term mechanics.

Tc

 

[nimish_rulz]

A recent report from Goldman Sachs trading desk. This is more to do with global markets. Please have a look and share your views. Many thanks.

http://www.wikiupload.com/pNTpAwIW

 

[nimish_rulz]

Nimish just a word on this.

Gold can never be linked to any commodity class. Gold has a mind of its own and this is largely because it is viewed as a hedge instrument globally. Historically, Gold attracts investments when markets underneath carry substantial risk.

I share your opinion about a possible correction. When I see how Gold is shaping up and the way Treasury bond Index is rallying, there is a clear indication that money is shifting towards safe assets. In my opinion, markets rallying from 4800 to 5300 or even to 5500 do not change the longer term mechanics.

Tc

Exactly Raunak bhai recently came across the treasury charts for 10 year yields it has hit record low even lower than Lehman that to me suggested a deadly picture for the future of US no1 is expecting IR to go up anytime shortly means savers would be punished not only for next 6 months but years to come.

 

[AW10]

Interesting disucssion between bulls and bears here. So can't keep myself away from it for long. While Prem's view are short term, and based on Trend channel, Nimish and Raunak's view are of longer timeframe. And IMO, u all are correct.
I have been Positional bearish from long time..and continue to remain so .. but my swing bearishness has just started since last friday.

IMO, no doubt that our market has relatively outperformed all other Emerging market in last 1 month (almost by 10%), when all other mkts were going down. But as global mkt/ economy goes southward, then is is matter of time for stronger markets to also follow the trend. For FII, Our mkts are certainly ripe for booking profit.
We have been going up, but less then 30/40% of average volume is not bullish. And let's not forget that it was quarter end and hence the bonus of many fund managers are at stake to beat the index. So there is no surprise to see RIL jumping one day to take mkt up and improve performance of all funds.. and next day, Infy jumping up to take IT funds NAV higher. I read that as a game of fund managers to take the index up to a level that will still show them as smartest fund managers, and then leave it there. Lot of reality will get unearthed as new quarter begins, so I am watching next few days closely in our market before I become complecent bear. After seenig the recent weakness in global market, I am aleardy complecent bear there.

Dow/S&P/FTSE all have broken their support at 10k/1050/5k after bouncing from these levels and giving lower highs below 200 DMA. Though we have not turned bearish, but trading odds are certainly against LONG position in NIFTY.
We have been seeing 100 points volatile day, going into 60 points narrow range on regular basis between 5200/5300 range. To me, it indicates distribution from strong hands to weaker hands which sets the base for next markdown phase.

Regarding Gold /Silver - I think, precious metals are breaking all old relations/concepts now because of change in macro economic fundamentals. In normal times, gold is worthless investment as treasury giving poor results. But when all strength of treasury is questionable, then certainly gold wins the confidence and becomes safer place then treasury. It has broken the inverse relation with USD, but one fine day, when USD starts loosing against EUR/GBP/CAD, that will be another push for Gold. IMO, USD is reaching the 5th wave targets.

So I continue to remain Positionally long on precious metals and short on stocks (global as well as India) for now.

These are my views (bearish again) and 2 cents, and I might be wrong.

Happy Trading

 

[coolabhi99]

Hi Prem,

you might remember that i dont consider news while trading. purely charts. Day before yesterday was a turbo cci Slingshot for trend reversal on Nifty Spot EOD chart. And i stayed short cause system didnt gave any exit yet. If i go purely by indicators, the for me it was a bull trap yesterday.

As per raunak sir told me once with elliot wave analysis, that we are enetering a correction wave of 1-2-3. I think second leg has completed. And we are headed to downside now. Although there might be some fluctuation to upside also.

Check the charts: -

It can end any where near 4631. Although this is an assumption. I will go with the system to enter and exit.

Dear Sir,

Do u mind sharing the CCI Panel AFL???

Regards & Thanks in advance,

 

[rajputz]

Dear Sir,

Do u mind sharing the CCI Panel AFL???

Regards & Thanks in advance,

Will Pm you...

Not here...

 

[nimish_rulz]

The best video I have come across between a debate on Keynesian school of thought and Austrian school of economics.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk

 

[nimish_rulz]

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The number of people filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits jumped by 13,000 in the latest week to 472,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected initial claims to fall to 455,000.

Dow has started to climb downwards. Good Shorting opportunity on the Euro and Pound

 

[nimish_rulz]

Shorted Euro with 1.2391 with a stop of recent high at 1.2427 above which I will buy back as Euro would have broken the pivot high.

Hedged it with an option of +30 or more on the FTSE by day end bought at $5 and sold Euro at 0.5$ per pip movement. Lets see how it goes. If ftse goes up by 30 points of more I will get $100 for $5 invested but if FTSE tanks Euro will tank too. Not a high risk trade total money at stake including stop loss $30 and hedging cost. Looking for $200 on this trade.