Hi all,
I'm trying my hand at the US $ Index for the first time. Please give me your feedback! I would like to point out that I haven't read any of the US dollar reports from any other analysts as it's a very complicated topic for me. Here, I'm posting my views purely based on what I'm seeing on the chart! Please, please post your feedback! I appreciate it!
Regards
Babu Kothandaraman
US $ Index
20101126 by Babu Kothandaraman
Bigger picture: A HnS reversal had been in effect since the breakdown of the neckline on 21/09 for a target of {80.20 – (88.71 – 80.11)} = 71.60
Did it reach the target?
Though the HnS pattern’s supposed target is 71.60 levels, please take note of the reversal @ 75.84 level. This level had been providing Support on 5 different previous occasions; 4th Jan ’08, 21 Aug ’08, 22 Sep ’08, 21 Sep ’09 (history repeats after an year of gap) and the latest 4th and 5th Nov 10.
Especially, it had been a Bullish Engulfing pattern and what a pattern right at the Support level! Is it only good enough for a reversal or a “long” entry? (Though this is a line chart, please refer to the next one for the candlestick view)
To find out the answer for this question, let’s move down to the RSI factor. When the price was at its lowest of LL levels, the RSI had been making a HL at that time for a possible positive divergence. Did RSI stop at that? No! It started crossing 50 line from below to underline the bullish sentiment.
Now, let’s move back to the Price. On the 16th Nov, Price hit the Resistance of the downtrend line around 79 levels for a slight pull back. Aha! It’s a Higher High (HH) now. Then, there was a slight pull back and where did this pull back stop? At around 78.21, exact levels of the R turned S levels. What did it do there? Surprisingly, yet another Bullish Engulfing pattern at the Support level on the 22nd Nov. Eventually, it’s also a Higher Low (HL) formation. And more than that, downtrend line break out took place immediately.
This is interesting! The price has made HH, HL and destined to make another HH which is good for bulls. But, what aren’t good for the bulls?
1. Price is now hitting the Resistance of the extended neckline of the previous HnS formation.
2. More than that it’s hovering around the 200 EMA levels.
Even with these two Resistances at the proximity, I feel that the HH, HL formation is going to win over. Why? Let me give you another view for the bulls, this time with SRMAC (SriRam’s Moving Average Crossover). Please take a look at the below chart
For this, I’m just plotting 10, 20, 48 and 200 EMAs on the chart. I keep the indicators study intact. 10 EMA had crossed the 20 EMA earlier and the 48 EMA just two sessions back from below.
Even though, I’m bullish, I’m also cautious of these two Resistance levels. I would also expect everyone else who has gone through this article as well!