Biggles,
I've already read a couple of Nifty reports by last night itself. However, here we go!
NIFTY
2010-12-16
Babu Kothandaraman
There is a double bottom formed at the 5752 levels with positive divergences on the MACD histogram, RSI and STOC. Also, it has stopped making a new Lower Low.
Are these just good enough for an up move?
Lets get closer for a macro view.
48EMA is around 5959 and 100EMA is around 5833. The price is trading between this range for the past three days. And the latest candle on the 16th looks like a hammer. I say, look alike because its not strictly a top one third body and bottom two-thirds of a tail definition of a hammer. The body along with the top wick is more than one third of the range; hence, can be termed as a bullish biased candle. Nevertheless, with the price hitting the Resistance of the downtrend line and 48EMA (around 5955 levels) together, a breakout might see the index reaching 6070 which is the prior swing high.
In EW parlance, it looks like a (b) corrective wave trying to form a flat. If so, c wave of this (b) flat should at least reach, if not exceed the levels of a wave of (b) which also coincides with the previous swing high of 6070.
But, remember that the TA is more of an art than a science. So, even if the current candle doesnt strictly confirm to the definitions of a hammer, it has formed at the Resistance zone of the 48EMA and the downtrend line.
So, make your decisions depending on the price actions of the coming days. Happy trading!