My Daily Options Trading Diary

[bhavesh_gelani]

Bhavesh

Problem with some people is that even when market is breaking one resistance after other, they tend to believe that it is just a minor pull back because they are short in the market. Correct thing to do should have been that short position should have been covered when market breaks the resistance after respecting it. One can always go short later when some other resistance is not broken or support is broken if your analysis shows that market will go down. However thinking of fall to 4400 level when Nifty is at 4900 after breaking important resistance at 4860, can at best be called day dreaming rather than any technical analysis. Follow the levels rather than try to predict them is beneficial most of the time. Tukka may work sometimes.

Cheers !!!!

Agree, for that i m attaching one visual effect guy like.... the only ultimate result for him ....

 

[MurAtt]

Hold it man, nifty will be @4400 by the end of this week yeh sab nautanki chal rahi hai... confuse karne ke liye...

Nifty may also fall to 3900 !!!!!


Stunned?

Very well, let me explain :

Elliot theory says : a pullback from 4550 is ideally 4925-50 levels (61.8% of total fall from 5180-4550-ish). If it breaks those levels then pullback would be 100% i.e. 5180. This pullback is not time bound generally and not bound that it should be within this expiry - then we fall again to 4550, 4404, xxxx, 3900, xxxx, 2900-ish ... and eventually retrace 100% of the rise from 2600 levels ...
(options wallas - chill ... this is not one, bi or tri-monthly stuff ... )

Fundamental : Nothing has changed fundamentally in India story so actually there was no reason to fall so drastically ... but other factors such as inflow into India (read liquidity), currency vis-a-vis dollar rates, exports, forex reserves, crude prices, chinese economy etc play a factor in determining the movement of our indices too (somewhat) and FII (majorly) .... so some small fall bcoz of recession abroad - US, EU, Japan etc should affect us somewhat ...
these other reasons may take us lower but eventually in a slower process ...

Again recovering economies may induce positive influence in our markets and Elliot may decide to go by alternate india count and if we end up at 6695 levels (my bike number) would be no surprise !!!!

Other than that .. pata nahi - me too learning

Did I write this !!!!

 

[AlokTewari]

Nifty may also fall to 3900 !!!!!


Stunned?

Very well, let me explain :

Elliot theory says : a pullback from 4550 is ideally 4925-50 levels (61.8% of total fall from 5180-4550-ish). If it breaks those levels then pullback would be 100% i.e. 5180. This pullback is not time bound generally and not bound that it should be within this expiry - then we fall again to 4550, 4404, xxxx, 3900, xxxx, 2900-ish ... and eventually retrace 100% of the rise from 2600 levels ...
(options wallas - chill ... this is not one, bi or tri-monthly stuff ... )

Fundamental : Nothing has changed fundamentally in India story so actually there was no reason to fall so drastically ... but other factors such as inflow into India (read liquidity), currency vis-a-vis dollar rates, exports, forex reserves, crude prices, chinese economy etc play a factor in determining the movement of our indices too (somewhat) and FII (majorly) .... so some small fall bcoz of recession abroad - US, EU, Japan etc should affect us somewhat ...
these other reasons may take us lower but eventually in a slower process ...

Again recovering economies may induce positive influence in our markets and Elliot may decide to go by alternate india count and if we end up at 6695 levels (my bike number) would be no surprise !!!!

Other than that .. pata nahi - me too learning

Did I write this !!!!

SM,

Sabko aur kunfuse kar diya for sure. My funda is that with now Nifty at around 4900 levels, 4400 or 3900 can not come until 4860 is broken. That is where longs should have trailing stops. So why bother for 4400 or 3900 until then. If 4950 is taken out by Nifty then trailing stop should move to below 4910. What do you say ?

Cheers !!!

 

[aditya14]

SM,

Sabko aur kunfuse kar diya for sure. My funda is that with now Nifty at around 4900 levels, 4400 or 3900 can not come until 4860 is broken. That is where longs should have trailing stops. So why bother for 4400 or 3900 until then. If 4950 is taken out by Nifty then trailing stop should move to below 4910. What do you say ?

Cheers !!!

We break 4800 by this weekend.Iam sticking my neck out here.

 

[findvikas]

If I am interpreting the volume correctly then its just a dry run and more fresh shorts added today.

 

[gbiradar]

If I am interpreting the volume correctly then its just a dry run and more fresh shorts added today.

Looks like tomorrow we will touch 4950-60.... Positive global clues...

Even I am praying for downfall but doesn't look like we will fall drastically ... at least this week...

 

[scorpio77]

Hi Vikas,

Just another perspective from OI data and PCR


http://www.traderji.com/options/34089-tracking-put-call-open-interest-9.html#post380686


Puts OI increasing at 4700,4800 and 4900 today with corresponding decrease in Calls

Indicates these levels as short term support

Dow also up 1.5%

Looks like a good day to be long overnight!

If I am interpreting the volume correctly then its just a dry run and more fresh shorts added today.

 

[findvikas]

similar volume pattern in US markets... the only reason why I would not buy here is volume is drying up and this is just a momentum bear rally which will bring all your hopes down. Stay out with cash unless volume picks up

 

[findvikas]

pretty unusual thing and something I would not believe on but who knows

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2009/11/crash-history-repeat-sep-1929-august.html

 

[trade4putuval]

Hi Vikas,

Are you in today? What do you recommend for today? Have 4900 PE 1 lot @110.

Rajiv