My daytrading
- Thread starter Raghavacc
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Few days back when I was free I was going through a thread and saw an opinion from a friend that charts and TA cannot predict the market's future movement.Hence thought of sharing my view.
TA is like - Clouds have gathered.Sky has become dark.Light breeze.It also started lightening.We say "Its going to rain now".We pack everything outside and bring them inside the home.We do whatever is needed to face the rain.
Now is it going to rain for sure?We do not know. We also look at circumstances and the time of the year.Here in south India if the clouds gather during June to September time, we say its more likely to rain.Now what does yesterday's weather report say?it says clouds have covered the sky of south India.More importantly we know the monsoon passes south India during this period.
The clue from weather dept,the time of the year,the dark clouds, lightening,Monsoon all these lead to say that "its going to rain now".
Now is it going to rain cent percent of the times, when we get all these symptoms?.No. not at at all.May be 2 out of 10 or 3 out of 10 times a strong wind may start and take away the clouds from the sky and it may end up in sunshine.
Now those 7 out of 10 times in which case it rained ,then stats of last 100 years which says Monsoon has entered South India during June-July, The stats which says it recorded 80% of the rain fall from June to Sep , makes us to say that "Its going to rain now".Its again a psycholgy-- For a common man, June -Sep = Monsoon, Cloud, Lightening,Breeze = Rain....
TA works similar way.Its not a pure science.Instead its a applied science,arts,maths and logic.Its job is to compile data and then interpret
1.% OF ODDS IN OUR FAVOUR
2.% OF ODDS AGAINST.
The easiest way of knowing how TA works is to go back and see the old stats.If it works even 40% of the times ,we are winners as our R:R always compensated those 60% odds which is not in our favour in this particular case.
People who want to argue ask"What is the guarantee that Monsoon will arrive this year?".
The answer to such people is "What is the guarantee that you will get your meals this evening?"
TA is like - Clouds have gathered.Sky has become dark.Light breeze.It also started lightening.We say "Its going to rain now".We pack everything outside and bring them inside the home.We do whatever is needed to face the rain.
Now is it going to rain for sure?We do not know. We also look at circumstances and the time of the year.Here in south India if the clouds gather during June to September time, we say its more likely to rain.Now what does yesterday's weather report say?it says clouds have covered the sky of south India.More importantly we know the monsoon passes south India during this period.
The clue from weather dept,the time of the year,the dark clouds, lightening,Monsoon all these lead to say that "its going to rain now".
Now is it going to rain cent percent of the times, when we get all these symptoms?.No. not at at all.May be 2 out of 10 or 3 out of 10 times a strong wind may start and take away the clouds from the sky and it may end up in sunshine.
Now those 7 out of 10 times in which case it rained ,then stats of last 100 years which says Monsoon has entered South India during June-July, The stats which says it recorded 80% of the rain fall from June to Sep , makes us to say that "Its going to rain now".Its again a psycholgy-- For a common man, June -Sep = Monsoon, Cloud, Lightening,Breeze = Rain....
TA works similar way.Its not a pure science.Instead its a applied science,arts,maths and logic.Its job is to compile data and then interpret
1.% OF ODDS IN OUR FAVOUR
2.% OF ODDS AGAINST.
The easiest way of knowing how TA works is to go back and see the old stats.If it works even 40% of the times ,we are winners as our R:R always compensated those 60% odds which is not in our favour in this particular case.
People who want to argue ask"What is the guarantee that Monsoon will arrive this year?".
The answer to such people is "What is the guarantee that you will get your meals this evening?"
Last edited:
Few days back when I was free I was going through a thread and saw an opinion from a friend that charts and TA cannot predict the market's future movement.Hence thought of sharing my view.
TA is like - Clouds have gathered.Sky has become dark.Light breeze.It also started lightening.We say "Its going to rain now".We pack everything outside and bring them inside the home.We do whatever is needed to face the rain.
Now is it going to rain for sure?We do not know. We also look at circumstances and the time of the year.Here in south India if the clouds gather during June to September time, we say its more likely to rain.Now what does yesterday's weather report say?it says clouds have covered the sky of south India.More importantly we know the monsoon passes south India during this period.
The clue from whether dept,the time of the year,the dark clouds, lightening,Monsoon all these lead to say that "its going to rain now".
Now is it going to rain cent percent of the times, when we get all these symptoms?.No. not at at all.May be 2 out of 10 or 3 out of 10 times a strong wind may start and take away the clouds from the sky and it may end up in sunshine.
Now those 7 out of 10 times in which case it rained ,then stats of last 100 years which says Monsoon has entered South India during June-July, The stats which says it recorded 80% of the rain fall from June to Sep , makes us to say that "Its going to rain now".Its again a psycholgy-- For a common man, June -Sep = Monsoon, Cloud, Lightening,Breeze = Rain....
TA works similar way.Its not a pure science.Instead its a applied science,arts,maths and logic.Its job is to compile data and then interpret
1.% OF ODDS IN OUR FAVOUR
2.% OF ODDS AGAINST.
The easiest way of knowing how TA works is to go back and see the old stats.If it works even 40% of the times ,we are winners as our R:R always compensated those 60% odds which is not in our favour in this particular case.
People who want to argue ask"What is the guarantee that Monsoon will arrive this year?".
The answer to such people is "What is the guarantee that you will get your meals this evening?"
TA is like - Clouds have gathered.Sky has become dark.Light breeze.It also started lightening.We say "Its going to rain now".We pack everything outside and bring them inside the home.We do whatever is needed to face the rain.
Now is it going to rain for sure?We do not know. We also look at circumstances and the time of the year.Here in south India if the clouds gather during June to September time, we say its more likely to rain.Now what does yesterday's weather report say?it says clouds have covered the sky of south India.More importantly we know the monsoon passes south India during this period.
The clue from whether dept,the time of the year,the dark clouds, lightening,Monsoon all these lead to say that "its going to rain now".
Now is it going to rain cent percent of the times, when we get all these symptoms?.No. not at at all.May be 2 out of 10 or 3 out of 10 times a strong wind may start and take away the clouds from the sky and it may end up in sunshine.
Now those 7 out of 10 times in which case it rained ,then stats of last 100 years which says Monsoon has entered South India during June-July, The stats which says it recorded 80% of the rain fall from June to Sep , makes us to say that "Its going to rain now".Its again a psycholgy-- For a common man, June -Sep = Monsoon, Cloud, Lightening,Breeze = Rain....
TA works similar way.Its not a pure science.Instead its a applied science,arts,maths and logic.Its job is to compile data and then interpret
1.% OF ODDS IN OUR FAVOUR
2.% OF ODDS AGAINST.
The easiest way of knowing how TA works is to go back and see the old stats.If it works even 40% of the times ,we are winners as our R:R always compensated those 60% odds which is not in our favour in this particular case.
People who want to argue ask"What is the guarantee that Monsoon will arrive this year?".
The answer to such people is "What is the guarantee that you will get your meals this evening?"
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