Namaste - My Learning of Trading in Nifty
- Thread starter crown
- Start date
I am having some doubts over the strength shown in yesterday's move. I think that the levels between 6050 - 6150 should be closely watched today. Nifty may give false breakout and signal between these levels. And, somewhere in my mind I having suspecting Nifty to close in Red today, but this is just a thought and it will be the markets to be followed.
I have been a quiet observer of this forum for quite a while trying to pick up anything I can from the experts that are on this forum. Trading is tough, no doubt... And I don't mind doing tough things. However, I think if trading was just about MTM I would've been a winner. The government is actually killing traders, I suppose.
Crown bro,
A broadening formation has developed in Nifty. As you can see in the chart attached. This is also called broadening top or Megaphone Top. As such, the implications are bearish. This is a very rare formation and difficult to trade.
Normally, volumes behave erratically with wild swings in prices. However, I am puzzled by the continuous decline in overall volumes since 4th October, when the pattern started developing.
All the oscillators have already given sell signal. Nifty fell below 14 DMA (6117) on 15th October, after one and half month. We saw a pull-back to 6121 but it is not able to cross that level. Hence, IMHO, it will fall further. This fall will be at least equal to the fall from 6284 to 5967 i.e. 317 points from today's top of 6121. This measures up to 5804. The 50 DMA is currently placed at 5806. 50% of the entire move from 5349 on 31st August to 6284 is at 5814. Hence Nifty will fall to that level.
It is therefore dangerous to take any long position at this juncture unless nifty closes and stays above 14 DMA which is at 6108 now.
Here is a chart of Dow Jones
Dow Jones Index is also rising since 31st August. Currently it is at the top of the rising channel started since 1st July. The oscillators have given sell signal. If Dow starts falling, nifty will follow.
Josh1
Last edited:
Hello namaskar to all seniors,
I am new to share market...right now can say in learning stage...reading posts on traderji forum...i want to have real experience of intraday trading by using Amibroker...what i would like to know from respected seniors is ...from where n do i purchase the Rt data...which may not have backfill problem etc...which one is the best?
Please guide...
Thanks......
I am new to share market...right now can say in learning stage...reading posts on traderji forum...i want to have real experience of intraday trading by using Amibroker...what i would like to know from respected seniors is ...from where n do i purchase the Rt data...which may not have backfill problem etc...which one is the best?
Please guide...
Thanks......
Josh Bro.
The formations, patterns etc. are historical details viewed in the forum of charts. These are, no doubt, very useful and essential for trading; but I feel that having excess of them usually create confusion. I think, it depends more upon our opinion about the markets and less upon the formations and patterns. I remember once Rajput Bro told me about this. What we have in our mind, we can search and found it happening. Like in the chart posted by you, I can see one another formation, which is called flag and which is quite a positive formation. Chart is placed below.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
The broadening formation was also developed sometime back in September [shown with red lines ] but the market went up.
In no way, I am countering your view of seeing the broadening formation and its implications; but my point is does these formations and patterns really have any say in actual trading. They can be created as per our convenience and opinion about the market. Like if you see the weekly chart, you won't find any such formation and if you try to analyse the hourly chart, you may find some another formations. These formations are very useful for discussing what had happened in the past; but for real time trading, these formations can be confusing and may not let ourselves to see what is actually happening in the market.
Regarding being tough or easy to trade any pattern, I am in complete dis-agreement. Because, when one can not trade the formation, even after knowing the bearish/bullish implications of that very pattern; then what is the use of it in real trading.
Josh bro, now I don't trade the formations anymore [though earlier I used to trade only and only formations, patterns, indicators]. I trade the market and use the pattern for my convenience, which is presently occurring on the screen.
Bro, after a lot of magajmaree I have now almost stopped using volume as my main indicator. There were times, when it really worked; but now [from the past 4-5 months around], I have been finding it somewhat misleading. Therefore, I just look at volumes for the sake of looking only, and I don't create or change my opinion on the basis of volumes. Sometimes, volume support my opinion and I feel happy. While sometimes, when volume is not supporting my opinion, I just become extra alert but the opinion remains the same.
Bro, the oscillators and indicators have a limited role. I don't opine on the basis of oscillators and indicators. I find it easy to have the base opinion on the basis of price itself and then see if the indicators or oscillators are in agreement or not. If the indicator/oscillator is in agreement, I feel happy. While if the indicator or the oscillator is not in agreement, I become just extra alert.
Regarding fall of Nifty towards 5804, I really don't know if this will happen or not. I don't know because I know that I simply can not know this thing which is supposed to happen in future. But if I find the prices going down in coming trading sessions, I will be with the markets i.e creating short positions. Right now, I find that the market has taken support around the very exact level that I was thinking of i.e. 5960. And I also find that after taking that support, there was a huge upside single day rally of around 90 points [dated 21 October] and a consolidation/profit booking/downfall of 35-36 points is very much welcomed and expected.
Bro, it is not only now, but it is actually always been dangerous to take any long or short positions in the market at any juncture. I have no hesitation in saying that trading is a bit of speculation; but because the speculation is done with some homework and logic, the chances of success in trading are a bit more then speculating blindly and without knowing the game.
Luck plays a very important role in trading and I have experienced it many times. Like now a days [from past 3-4 days] the internet connection hangs specifically at the very moment when I have to make a trade. The line was got checked twice but there is no fault. If the internet connection is okay, then the computer got hanged, which was working very fine prior to that moment and which worked very very fine after that moment. Or sometime, I had a telephone call to attend to, which I thought would be over within a minute or so; but it took 20-30 minutes. Though, the successful traders may not agree on this simply because they are successful and are authorized to have different opinion; but luck does have a big role to play in trading.
When I knew almost nothing about trading and technicals, there used to be some very profitable and good medium term positional trades which I enjoyed. But if now I would try to analyze those trades on technicals, I fail to see any technical reason or oscillator/indicator/pattern signal at the time of trade. Though, afterwards the formation did take place.
Anyway, my point is to be a successful trader one has to be aware of the risk which is always there and sometimes, we have to simply depend upon our luck which help us to choose the one script out of 5-10 to trade and that works.
The formations, patterns etc. are historical details viewed in the forum of charts. These are, no doubt, very useful and essential for trading; but I feel that having excess of them usually create confusion. I think, it depends more upon our opinion about the markets and less upon the formations and patterns. I remember once Rajput Bro told me about this. What we have in our mind, we can search and found it happening. Like in the chart posted by you, I can see one another formation, which is called flag and which is quite a positive formation. Chart is placed below.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
The broadening formation was also developed sometime back in September [shown with red lines ] but the market went up.
In no way, I am countering your view of seeing the broadening formation and its implications; but my point is does these formations and patterns really have any say in actual trading. They can be created as per our convenience and opinion about the market. Like if you see the weekly chart, you won't find any such formation and if you try to analyse the hourly chart, you may find some another formations. These formations are very useful for discussing what had happened in the past; but for real time trading, these formations can be confusing and may not let ourselves to see what is actually happening in the market.
Regarding being tough or easy to trade any pattern, I am in complete dis-agreement. Because, when one can not trade the formation, even after knowing the bearish/bullish implications of that very pattern; then what is the use of it in real trading.
Josh bro, now I don't trade the formations anymore [though earlier I used to trade only and only formations, patterns, indicators]. I trade the market and use the pattern for my convenience, which is presently occurring on the screen.
Bro, after a lot of magajmaree I have now almost stopped using volume as my main indicator. There were times, when it really worked; but now [from the past 4-5 months around], I have been finding it somewhat misleading. Therefore, I just look at volumes for the sake of looking only, and I don't create or change my opinion on the basis of volumes. Sometimes, volume support my opinion and I feel happy. While sometimes, when volume is not supporting my opinion, I just become extra alert but the opinion remains the same.
Bro, the oscillators and indicators have a limited role. I don't opine on the basis of oscillators and indicators. I find it easy to have the base opinion on the basis of price itself and then see if the indicators or oscillators are in agreement or not. If the indicator/oscillator is in agreement, I feel happy. While if the indicator or the oscillator is not in agreement, I become just extra alert.
Regarding fall of Nifty towards 5804, I really don't know if this will happen or not. I don't know because I know that I simply can not know this thing which is supposed to happen in future. But if I find the prices going down in coming trading sessions, I will be with the markets i.e creating short positions. Right now, I find that the market has taken support around the very exact level that I was thinking of i.e. 5960. And I also find that after taking that support, there was a huge upside single day rally of around 90 points [dated 21 October] and a consolidation/profit booking/downfall of 35-36 points is very much welcomed and expected.
Bro, it is not only now, but it is actually always been dangerous to take any long or short positions in the market at any juncture. I have no hesitation in saying that trading is a bit of speculation; but because the speculation is done with some homework and logic, the chances of success in trading are a bit more then speculating blindly and without knowing the game.
Luck plays a very important role in trading and I have experienced it many times. Like now a days [from past 3-4 days] the internet connection hangs specifically at the very moment when I have to make a trade. The line was got checked twice but there is no fault. If the internet connection is okay, then the computer got hanged, which was working very fine prior to that moment and which worked very very fine after that moment. Or sometime, I had a telephone call to attend to, which I thought would be over within a minute or so; but it took 20-30 minutes. Though, the successful traders may not agree on this simply because they are successful and are authorized to have different opinion; but luck does have a big role to play in trading.
When I knew almost nothing about trading and technicals, there used to be some very profitable and good medium term positional trades which I enjoyed. But if now I would try to analyze those trades on technicals, I fail to see any technical reason or oscillator/indicator/pattern signal at the time of trade. Though, afterwards the formation did take place.
Anyway, my point is to be a successful trader one has to be aware of the risk which is always there and sometimes, we have to simply depend upon our luck which help us to choose the one script out of 5-10 to trade and that works.
| Thread starter | Similar threads | Forum | Replies | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | Namaste to all | Introductions | 0 | |
| L | Namaste | Introductions | 2 | |
| V | Namaste Traders | Introductions | 0 | |
| I | Namaste | Introductions | 0 | |
| O | Namaste | Introductions | 2 |