NaMo's I'day speech : Its effect on the markets

[timepass]

Gujraat no manas etla negative kevi ritya thaya bhai ? You are from Surat...land of astute businessmen...

ST

It's a long list, but basically recession - specially in the diamond sector - which has dampened the spirit here. One sees more shops closing down than the new ones being inaugurated.

Increased local taxes, a large number of incomplete govt. projects and on top of that, increased negative news flow ..
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...urat-diamond-traders/articleshow/39990677.cms
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...in-Surat-gems-market/articleshow/39990616.cms

such news have become a norm. Thus the property market is skewed - hot in 1-2 areas which are close to the proposed diamond bourse, seriously depressed elsewhere. The deals aren't happening, whatever the price; no buyers anywhere.

 

[TradeJoker]

2 years of honeymoon period, I said in an earlier post

These 2 to 3 years is seeding period, after that harvesting

 

[timepass]

How Modi got bullet-proof shield out of his way, freely met people

Narendra Modi overruled strong objections from his security detail and shunned the bullet-proof enclosure to “connect directly” with people during his maiden Independence Day speech as PM on Friday. The enclosure, a regular feature for almost 30 years, was removed just hours before the PM was to reach the Red Fort to address the nation. It was a closely guarded decision and only a handful of senior officers were in know, a home ministry source said.

“His view was that Independence Day is a people's festival and he didn't want any barriers in between -– not even a glass screen," a security official said. Again in the evening at a function at Rashtrapati Bhawan, Modi broke free from the security cordon to meet people.

Earlier, more steps were taken when Modi refused to use the bullet-proof enclosure after three hours of discussions that involved top security officials, home ministry sources said.

"The Prime Minister faces considerable threat to his life from terrorists. The enclosure was removed hours before his speech to keep an element of surprise,” the official said.

Security is put in place 48 hours ahead of the speech after an extensive anti-sabotage drill and securing of all high-rises in the vicinity.

The special protection group (SPG), responsible for the security of the PM, former PMs and their families, assigned more men to close protection team (CPT) to throw a ring around the PM. The CPT men are the first line of defence if someone fires a shot at the PM.

All high-rises, including Gauri Shankar temple, Digambar Jain temple and bus terminus, around the 17th century fort were secured and snipers deployed on rooftops. Buildings in Jhandewalan, around 3kms away, were also being guarded.

The bullet-resistant enclosure first came up on the Republic Day in 1985 when Rajiv Gandhi was the PM. It became a permanent fixture until VP Singh opted for a half enclosure for the Independence Day in 1990. The screen was raised body-high again the next year for PM PV Narasimha Rao. After Rajiv Gandhi, Modi, according to intelligence agencies, faces maximum threat to life.

In the evening, at the At Home function at Rashtrapati Bhawan, Modi broke away from the security cordon to meet guests. For about 15 minutes, he mingled with the crowd and even signed autographs for children.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/Print/1252535.aspx?s=p

Maybe the hologram and chai pe charcha would have been better utilised here for direct contact with the people

 

[DSM]

TP, Before the election I have been cautiously optimistic about PM Modi, and am more optimistic than before. The reason is clear. I am comparing BJP who are having a fresh start and no ink stains, as against Congress/UPA who were fully tainted with corruption. (AK Antony came out with the report on the election fiasco? The summary : None of the Gandhi's were responsible for it. Media was biased. Only he fell short of blaming the public who voted for Modi ) So basically UPA will continue going about in a clueless manner and with wishful thinking as they have before the election.

To come to Modi/BJP - even the west has woken up to a new reality. There is optimism, and is that not why the market is where it is now? US has sent in three high powered delegations, while Europe and other powerful nations are waiting for closer ties with India.

People expect too much too fast for sure. But even a majority govt. has compulsions. RSS is closely watching and will influence what the govt. can or cannot do. GM crop trials was ditched without the study on Nagpur's orders. Then there are a few flaming the communal pots. (Does nomenclature really matter? What we call our country India-Bharat-Hindustan should not take away the focus from what gigantic task of nation building that is ahead of the government)

People have a tendency to get disillusioned very fast. FII's want more, but FDI in retail is still no-no. FII's have to pay more tax on their trading income as per the initial budget, so are making use of the facility to trade in Singapore rather than in NSE/BSE. Opening insurance sector is being stalled by the Congress. With BJP not having the nos in the Rajya Sabha, making reforms is not going to be easy as making promise. How silly can we be? The opposition as well as conservatives are against granting majority in the defence sector, while out country spends hundreds of billion on defence each year . The outcome? Billions of dollars of arms that could be manufactured in our country at a cheaper cost, providing employment opportunity to millions, stir up economic activity and ancillary industries, and allow millions of the Indians to be a participant and beneficiary by subscribing to shares of such companies are denied such opportunity. Instead, we will do the opposite, and spend billions of dollars to import these arms at a higher cost from the west. Who will benefit? The middle men and politicians ofcourse.

The problem also lies that Modi himself has set high expectations. But we need to give him time. My take : No matter where the market goes from here in the short term. Any correction or fall is a good opportunity to go long. Prediction is a risky business, but my bias is that this Dec. the market will be higher than where it is now. And by Dec. 2015 we will be at a market peak with Nifty crossing 10K. Let's see what unfolds.

2 years of honeymoon period, I said in an earlier post

 

[mastermind007]

TP, Before the election I have been cautiously optimistic about PM Modi, and am more optimistic than before. The reason is clear. I am comparing BJP who are having a fresh start and no ink stains, as against Congress/UPA who were fully tainted with corruption. (AK Antony came out with the report on the election fiasco? The summary : None of the Gandhi's were responsible for it. Media was biased. Only he fell short of blaming the public who voted for Modi ) So basically UPA will continue going about in a clueless manner and with wishful thinking as they have before the election.

To come to Modi/BJP - even the west has woken up to a new reality. There is optimism, and is that not why the market is where it is now? US has sent in three high powered delegations, while Europe and other powerful nations are waiting for closer ties with India.

People expect too much too fast for sure. But even a majority govt. has compulsions. RSS is closely watching and will influence what the govt. can or cannot do. GM crop trials was ditched without the study on Nagpur's orders. Then there are a few flaming the communal pots. (Does nomenclature really matter? What we call our country India-Bharat-Hindustan should not take away the focus from what gigantic task of nation building that is ahead of the government)

People have a tendency to get disillusioned very fast. FII's want more, but FDI in retail is still no-no. FII's have to pay more tax on their trading income as per the initial budget, so are making use of the facility to trade in Singapore rather than in NSE/BSE. Opening insurance sector is being stalled by the Congress. With BJP not having the nos in the Rajya Sabha, making reforms is not going to be easy as making promise. How silly can we be? The opposition as well as conservatives are against granting majority in the defence sector, while out country spends hundreds of billion on defence each year . The outcome? Billions of dollars of arms that could be manufactured in our country at a cheaper cost, providing employment opportunity to millions, stir up economic activity and ancillary industries, and allow millions of the Indians to be a participant and beneficiary by subscribing to shares of such companies are denied such opportunity. Instead, we will do the opposite, and spend billions of dollars to import these arms at a higher cost from the west. Who will benefit? The middle men and politicians ofcourse.

The problem also lies that Modi himself has set high expectations. But we need to give him time. My take : No matter where the market goes from here in the short term. Any correction or fall is a good opportunity to go long. Prediction is a risky business, but my bias is that this Dec. the market will be higher than where it is now. And by Dec. 2015 we will be at a market peak with Nifty crossing 10K. Let's see what unfolds.

DSM

Very well said

When bullish signals started appearing noticeably in January 2014, I was also very hesitant and used to jump in and out of bullish move taking away small profits/losses but I've stayed put Long after 12 May and agree with your overall view.

Not only A K Antony, all Congress leaders are like Horses with eyes wide shut. Local Congress leader Charan Singh Sapra has splurged on distributing expensive colored brochure in which he claim X, Y, Z as his achievement.

Even disregarding that his achievement claims sounds outrargeous, it is abundantly clear from the brochure that he is not permitted to think beyond Gandhi.

As a rule, congress has always focused only on slums and never even ventures into middle class buildings but this time their stooges are moving around in our colony and coming door-to-door on weekends.


Quite understandably, BJP came up with a brochure of its own matching brick for brick

 

[timepass]

UPA rule being bad and continuing to worsen post-elections doesn't automatically mean that NDA rule is better. What riles me is the needless desire to appear optimistic and unthinking praise for everything that Modi/BJP does. This is very much akin to the recent Kejriwal euphoria.

Without a doubt, Modi is getting the benefit of the Kejriwal experiment and the public is willing to give him much more time than Kejriwal, who found the electorate sitting on his head right from the word go.

The share market traders may confuse the index movement to be a reflection of the economy. I would rather keep my expectations muted and be pleasantly surprised if and when the positive results show up; and not believe a word that the politicians utter, either way.

And keep an eye on the data - WPI down, CPI up; May CPI revised upwards; petrol cheaper twice in NDA-2; RBI transfers record surplus (52619 crores - 60% higher than the previous year) to the government; a lot of foundation laying ceremonies; layoffs by the corporates the world over; fickle geopolitical situation in Ukraine, Israel and now Pakistan; crude declining for 5th week.... etc.. etc.

 

[mastermind007]

UPA rule being bad and continuing to worsen post-elections doesn't automatically mean that NDA rule is better. What riles me is the needless desire to appear optimistic and unthinking praise for everything that Modi/BJP does. This is very much akin to the recent Kejriwal euphoria.

Without a doubt, Modi is getting the benefit of the Kejriwal experiment and the public is willing to give him much more time than Kejriwal, who found the electorate sitting on his head right from the word go.

The share market traders may confuse the index movement to be a reflection of the economy. I would rather keep my expectations muted and be pleasantly surprised if and when the positive results show up; and not believe a word that the politicians utter, either way.

And keep an eye on the data - WPI down, CPI up; May CPI revised upwards; petrol cheaper twice in NDA-2; RBI transfers record surplus (52619 crores - 60% higher than the previous year) to the government; a lot of foundation laying ceremonies; layoffs by the corporates the world over; fickle geopolitical situation in Ukraine, Israel and now Pakistan; crude declining for 5th week.... etc.. etc.

Yes.... True.... Whether you are Gandhi Bhakt, Kejriwal Bhakt or Modi Bhakt, Bharat loses

 

[TradeJoker]

UPA rule being bad and continuing to worsen post-elections doesn't automatically mean that NDA rule is better. What riles me is the needless desire to appear optimistic and unthinking praise for everything that Modi/BJP does. This is very much akin to the recent Kejriwal euphoria.

Without a doubt, Modi is getting the benefit of the Kejriwal experiment and the public is willing to give him much more time than Kejriwal, who found the electorate sitting on his head right from the word go.

The share market traders may confuse the index movement to be a reflection of the economy. I would rather keep my expectations muted and be pleasantly surprised if and when the positive results show up; and not believe a word that the politicians utter, either way.

And keep an eye on the data - WPI down, CPI up; May CPI revised upwards; petrol cheaper twice in NDA-2; RBI transfers record surplus (52619 crores - 60% higher than the previous year) to the government; a lot of foundation laying ceremonies; layoffs by the corporates the world over; fickle geopolitical situation in Ukraine, Israel and now Pakistan; crude declining for 5th week.... etc.. etc.

The delimma is, whether the breakout is real or just a euphoria

 

[nirav_j]

Lot of negativity and skepticism in this thread ..

 

[timepass]

Yes.... True.... Whether you are Gandhi Bhakt, Kejriwal Bhakt or Modi Bhakt, Bharat loses

The delimma is, whether the breakout is real or just a euphoria

Lot of negativity and skepticism in this thread ..

Won't say negativity, skepticism yes. I would say tempered optimism i.e. optimism tempered with reality check.