naturalgas Help

[Mr.Rao]

I bought naturalgas september at 150.50. but now it is below 149 .what should i do hold or sell. wat is stoploss.will it fall further? can any one guide me.

 

[GAUTSHAR]

Before i say anything about to hold or cut, let me know the reason/logic/setup behind ur entry in NG. Was it that it fell 4 percent each on two days n u saw it available at 150 whereas it was 164 plus two days back.
Let me know the thought chain in ur mind when u entered into it then i can probably help.
Might be u like to come n talk bout it to my yahoo id gautam.sharma77

 

[Mr.Rao]

Before i say anything about to hold or cut, let me know the reason/logic/setup behind ur entry in NG. Was it that it fell 4 percent each on two days n u saw it available at 150 whereas it was 164 plus two days back.
Let me know the thought chain in ur mind when u entered into it then i can probably help.
Might be u like to come n talk bout it to my yahoo id gautam.sharma77

Thanks u for u r reply.on friday it came sharply after that it was lookink like to form a base around 149. but i entered at 150.50 .ofcourse after that it went to 152 but i want to sell it around 155 after 2-3 days.but suddenly it came down to below 149 on saturday when i was not at my terminal.so now should i wait or book loss?

 

[sivatummala]

Thanks u for u r reply.on friday it came sharply after that it was lookink like to form a base around 149. but i entered at 150.50 .ofcourse after that it went to 152 but i want to sell it around 155 after 2-3 days.but suddenly it came down to below 149 on saturday when i was not at my terminal.so now should i wait or book loss?

my entry point in natural gas is 161.10, i am still holding it.. if it happens to come down to 145 i will average it down. reason being, it is already at 7 year lows.. with the hurricane season and winter is almost nearing there is no way but to go up for NG.
my suggestion to you is "HOLD".

 

[GAUTSHAR]

Thanks u for u r reply.on friday it came sharply after that it was lookink like to form a base around 149. but i entered at 150.50 .ofcourse after that it went to 152 but i want to sell it around 155 after 2-3 days.but suddenly it came down to below 149 on saturday when i was not at my terminal.so now should i wait or book loss?

Mr. Rao. my suggestion on this follows as under.
Ng is a bit oversold on the charts but it has been continuosly into a downtrend. Chartwise i do not see any positives on this on any time frame( 4 hrs n above). as i see ur profit target is quite small at 155 which can be achieved even if it tries to shake off the oversold indicators on hourly. But i personally never trade on fundamentals therefore i avoid anticipative setups. That means unless i see something positive on charts i would avoid it. I suggest u to exit out of NG for the moment. Today u might even get ur BE point so exit n look for better opportunities. if u want to trade NG than wait for better chart formations.
Thanks

 

[Mr.Rao]

my entry point in natural gas is 161.10, i am still holding it.. if it happens to come down to 145 i will average it down. reason being, it is already at 7 year lows.. with the hurricane season and winter is almost nearing there is no way but to go up for NG.
my suggestion to you is "HOLD".

Meeku Kruthajnathalu 4 reply.
what price can i keep as target

 

[GAUTSHAR]

Mr. Rao. my suggestion on this follows as under.
Ng is a bit oversold on the charts but it has been continuosly into a downtrend. Chartwise i do not see any positives on this on any time frame( 4 hrs n above). as i see ur profit target is quite small at 155 which can be achieved even if it tries to shake off the oversold indicators on hourly. But i personally never trade on fundamentals therefore i avoid anticipative setups. That means unless i see something positive on charts i would avoid it. I suggest u to exit out of NG for the moment. Today u might even get ur BE point so exit n look for better opportunities. if u want to trade NG than wait for better chart formations.
Thanks

I hope u are managing the position well. Did u exit or still holding. Its qouting at 133 now

 

[GAUTSHAR]

Also help me i bought sep crude oil at 3570 now what i do , i can hold it and can also pay margin for at rs. 3000 but i want to know that my rate will come or not and at what time it will be.

Hi there. In response to ur query i repeat the same thing as above before i comment on this specific counter. What was ur trading plan when u entered the position. what was the rationale that ur mind justified to enter this particular trade. Did u enter for long term or short term. Did u have ur profit levels n SL levels in place before u entered.do u have sufficient margin to afford the counter alonwith open losses.
Let me know these things n may be i can help. However crude is not as bearish as NG right now so there is a fair chance for u to exit comfortably. But to comment on the possible course i need ur answers to my queries.

 

[Mr.Rao]

Hi there. In response to ur query i repeat the same thing as above before i comment on this specific counter. What was ur trading plan when u entered the position. what was the rationale that ur mind justified to enter this particular trade. Did u enter for long term or short term. Did u have ur profit levels n SL levels in place before u entered.do u have sufficient margin to afford the counter alonwith open losses.
Let me know these things n may be i can help. However crude is not as bearish as NG right now so there is a fair chance for u to exit comfortably. But to comment on the possible course i need ur answers to my queries.

I already exited at 141 which was my stoploss.
But next month futures r trading with difference of almost 60 rupees.Generally which was around 20 rs in past.So can we arbitrage by buying currentmonth at 133 and selling nextmonth for 192.

 

[GAUTSHAR]

I already exited at 141 which was my stoploss.
But next month futures r trading with difference of almost 60 rupees.Generally which was around 20 rs in past.So can we arbitrage by buying currentmonth at 133 and selling nextmonth for 192.

Good to here that u exited at ur SL. Regarding the arbitrage opportunity, following point may be taken into account.
1. Arbitrage on two different month future contract is considered with a view that on expiry prices would try to converge to spot, however here in commodities futures may well expire without converging as they are guided by international contracts which may or may not converge as spot is not a tradable counter.
2. See the last month scenario. Last month future expired at 143 whereas the current month contract was still trading at 163 that moment and i didnt see any convergence.

In my personal opinion , arbitrage on NG may not be such an advisable strategy.
Trade well n take care