New Intermed Uptrend!!

[Saint]

Now,the all encompassing question that intrigues us all,to the point of haunting,is this:Are we in a long term bull,in an intermediate bear......or are we in a bear market?

The above question is a very pertinent one,the answer to which will change the course of what we would do........

As always,traders following trends need to keep things as simple as they can.Have we broken previous pivot lows on the weekly?Yes.We are therefore in an intermediate downtrend.Have we broken the previous pivot lows on the monthly?Not yet,as of now...........So long as that pivot holds,we dont have a confirmed change to bearishness over the longer term.From a monthly chart perspective,we are in a pullback.A break below 7656(Oct lows) and we are in longer term bear.

As of now,we are therefore in a longer term uptrend with an intermediate downtrend.

Breaking 7656,and we are in a bear market........if we rally from here on comparatively lower volumes,and form a lower pivot high,or double top or a head and shoulders,brace yourself for a bear market.BUT,till any of these scenarios happen,we continue to be in a long term bull in an intermediate bear.We continue to be above our long term trendlines,and this "fall" qualifies as nothing but a pullback on the monthly charts.

A very important question here would be o we buy this pullback once we get a signal on the weekly charts,or do we let things rally and sell into the rally and get out of the markets?

Basically rules of the game has to be adhered to.......in a long term bull,we buy into intermediate pullbacks,and that is that.One can always stand aside and sell into the rallies,that is a personal decision,I guess.But charts wise,we haven't got into a bear market yet.A bear market will come up sooner or later.......but till then,we buy pullbacks and ride the trend.We will continuously monitor the next rally,and if stated before we get a weak rally,or forming reversal patterns,we have to change our outlook then and step aside.

That time is not yet upon us...........12600 could just be the ultimate top,or maybe not.But we are not here to predict trends,but to trade them.

SENSEX WEEKLY PREVIOUS BAR HIGH now stands at 10552,meaning if we get a rally,intermediate traders would be looking to get long over the above figure.

Happy Trading!
Saint

 

[cooltetra]

Finally the Lord smiles
Tomorrow, we will have a great rally.

Amen

Hey any coincidence in this, page 326 post 3256
Best Regards
Coool

 

[ramtrade]

Now,the all encompassing question that intrigues us all,to the point of haunting,is this:Are we in a long term bull,in an intermediate bear......or are we in a bear market?

Hi Saint,

With the current almost flat world biggest economy and fear of rising interest rates in US which will have global repurcussions, can we still hope of a recovery?
Even the cooling of oil prices could boost the stock sentiment today in US markets....it did boost the sentiments...but could not hold for long.

Thanks
Ramesh

 

[avinash]

Hi Saint,

Thanks for the review above.

I was out of all intermediate and short term trades,but I am still holding all my mutual funds with a longer term view.Looking at the present situation,I wish I only had intermediate positions though

As it stands now,from what I understand,you are saying that this bull mkt is far from over,and it's back to buying intermediate pullbacks once mkt crosses 10552........and that same figure on NIFTY would be 3125,I guess.

Looking at this crash,I wonder if we will ever go up over those levels though.

With regds,
Avinash

 

[Saint]

Hi Saint,

Thanks for the review above.

I was out of all intermediate and short term trades,but I am still holding all my mutual funds with a longer term view.Looking at the present situation,I wish I only had intermediate positions though

As it stands now,from what I understand,you are saying that this bull mkt is far from over,and it's back to buying intermediate pullbacks once mkt crosses 10552........and that same figure on NIFTY would be 3125,I guess.

Looking at this crash,I wonder if we will ever go up over those levels though.

With regds,
Avinash

Such are the ways of the market,my friend.And as in all bull markets with an intermediate dntrend,we look to buy...........Stand aside from the pain that the mkts cause.Open your charts,and take a look.Charts care not for you or me,they tell you the way things ARE.

Would the next move up take out the 12600 levels and go to new highs,or would it fall short and cause even more pain than the present fall?The simple and realistic answer to that is that there really is no way of figuring that one out.

Therefore,buy if you must once you get the intermediate signals to go positive ,in instruments that can be sold off easily.Like stocks,etc.Get into MF's only once we get a move up and then a protracted sideways phase,and we are definitely confident of the move up.Not now,even if we cross 10552 tomorrow.

For now,of course,it's do nothing as we wait..........once we get the signal to get in ,we buy into the intermed move up.As for the MF's that you bought and are holding so far,through this crash,I suppose they were meant as a long term investment.If so,don't keep peeping into the "amt made/lost" columns.

I am in the same boat as you are,my friend........I had piled onto some MF's for the long term after the crash of 2004.I know I am still sitting on a huge profit,but as I did not let my mind go thru the highs of the euphoria by peeping in everyday,so too the mind is prevented from the doldrums of depression now.

As I had said previously,the time to worry abt the longer term charts is not yet here.............for now,we stalk and stalk for an entry.There is no greater pleasure for a predator than to have its prey come to it.......now it's just stalk and the right time to pounce.

All the best!
Saint

 

[pkjha30]

Hi Saint

You speak once and its enough to boost morale and continue vigil.

Thanks
pankaj

 

[Saint]

Hi Saint

You speak once and its enough to boost morale and continue vigil.

Thanks
pankaj

And you are doing a great job as well with your various threads.A big Salute from my side on a job well done.......and looking fwd to more!

Saint

 

[pkjha30]

And you are doing a great job as well with your various threads.A big Salute from my side on a job well done.......and looking fwd to more!

Saint

Great! Boss Wilco.

Just looking for the sign so that I can stop posting and start reading again.

Pankaj

 

[shrinivas]

Ganesh, very brave and so moving.
Yes you have the best wishes and blessings of all of us here, and more than that you have courage, conviction, and a great attitude.

I'm sending you all the best of feelings and energy I can muster.
You'll come out of these difficult times a richer being, both spiritually and materially.
May wisdom and prosperity be yours
All the very best, Ganesh.

thanks a lot amitda....i was out, busy on work...just came back today.. happy to see your blessings..

ganeshhity

 

[shrinivas]

Hi

Ganesh you are an honourable man.Calm and wise in adversity. Remember one thing. No one is defeated till he accepts the defeat. What you think is defeat in battle will turn out to be victory in war. When You say that you were victorious we will be there to celebrate.

You have learnt a good lesson, not to trust your brokers or tips , no money can compensate you for that.

Pankaj

thanks a lot pk...yes, u're right, I have lots of action througout life to see in stock market.....a lesson learnt at early age..thanks a lot.....

ganeshhity