New Intermed Uptrend!!

[Saint]

Thx Saint,

God's grace.. I'm gr8 too..
So, what is the situation like..
do we trade or sit on sidelines a little more..
am not 2 comfortable with a bounded mkt like this..
seems like 3050-3200 all the while..

What shdl be the strategy in a mkt like this?

Will luv 2 hv ur views as always,

n u shall see much more of me now..

cheers
vizzie

Hi Vizzie,

Strategy for now?

If you are long term trader,who trades the long side only,stay out.

If you are an investor,looking to get in,not yet.......your time is coming,but not yet.

If you are a long term trader,and enjoy going short,below 3056 today was your entry,and hold till the change in trend takes you out whether at a higher pivot low or not.

If you are a short to intermediate trader,and was long,you should have been stopped out at 3056 today.

If you are a short to intermediate trader who trades up trends and then goes down the trends,then 3056 was the point where you take your profits on the longs and go short at that point.

And Vizzie,great to see you around ,at long last,........and hoping to see much more as you mentioned.

All the best!
Saint

 

[kumar7]

Re: Dear Saint: AFTEK INFO

Hi Pranaw,

Stay away......remember ,always try to make money off something that gives you higher odds of success.Of course if you are trying to get only a Rs2-3 move,that's another issue.

Basically,AFTEK INFO is in a downtrend on all longer time frames,yep,looking like a shorter term uptrend on the daily charts...........but careful on trading long on a longer term downtrend.You could buy at 55,be thrilled that it ran up to 62,and then ,slam dunk,before you know it,you could be sitting at 45.

So,very very careful,.........unless if you are an experienced nimble shorter term trader who has calculated his risk rewards,and money management well......then no probs.

Happy Trading!
Saint

Thanks for your comments! Market is Scary at the moment!
Kumar

 

[judemit]

Hi Saint,
I have read lot of your posts (very informative and i must say that these post tell us the depth of knowledge and experience you have) and appriciate them.

How will you figure out what is the right time for long time investing in stocks.

Thanks in advance..

If you are an investor,looking to get in,not yet.......your time is coming,but not yet.

 

[Saint]

Re: Dear Saint: AFTEK INFO

Thanks for your comments! Market is Scary at the moment!
Kumar

Most welcome........just to make it easier to know you,do I call you as Kumar or Pranaw?

All the best!
Saint

 

[Saint]

Hi Saint,
I have read lot of your posts (very informative and i must say that these post tell us the depth of knowledge and experience you have) and appriciate them.

How will you figure out what is the right time for long time investing in stocks.

Thanks in advance..

Hi Judemit,

The perfect time for long term investing is when the primary downtrend shows signs of a reversal,that time in the bear market where stocks investing is looked at in disdain and horror!

Once that perfect time has been missed,the various intermed dntrends are a good place to get in..........now the market is at a stage where one cannot say for sure if this is an ugly intermed dntrend,or the first leg of a primary dntrend,except in retrospect at a later date.

So wait and watch for now.........as you are a long term investor,you need also to look at fundamentals,etc.But from a technical view point,stay clear of the markets,and wait for that time when you get that higher pivot low on the weekly charts and add over the previous pivot high.

Have a look at the chart attached.........as of now,we are in a downtrend.Stand aside till we get some signal of a trend reversal to the up.

Happy Investing!
Saint

 

[Saint]

I foresee petrol at 70 to 75 per litre in a years from now ... Left or no Left . Somewhere I read today ...crude has entered the beginning of the last phase where price spikes can be expected (Oh God help us !)

In B'lore its already 55+, so that's just 30 % appreciation if it happens. C'mon now, that's meek compared to the 'cap gains' of 100 % plus many of us wd have made each of last few yrs (I know that's like comparing apples etc ... but still)

AGILENT

Hi Agilent,

Just in connection with Crude Oil............in one very strong Primary Bull market in a Secular Bull.We may see huge corrections in between,and when everyone is going to be dancing with joy,only to see it bounce back to new highs.A long,long way to go for this Bull Run.

Charts below....

Saint

 

[kuldeep49]

Hi Saint,

I was doodling around with the Nifty chart ... trying to identify any pattern when I ended up with the attached picture. What do you think of it? Am I trying to fit the solution on the problem or does this make sense?

As I see it, the current scenario is volatile due to various reasons but come the end of monsoons and the days of 'shraad' that follow, the new festive & auspicious season will begin. Traditionally, this signifies the start of good times for businesses. People buy roti, kapda, makaan,and cars and TV's. Marriages get scheduled. Agricultural incomes start being spent with the harvesting season. People working in businesses get their annual bonuses to spend. The economy looks up and bulls wake up too.

Taking this into account, can we look forward to the double bottom reversal and the start of a bullish trend by end of September as projected in the chart?

Look at the downward volume trend. Does this also reinforce that we are getting into this pattern? I know that traditionally, one has to wait till it completes its second bottom before one can confirm the pattern, but my question is, can we reasonably assume it happening based on change of seasons as above?

Attached the weekly chart for nifty.

Comments?

Regards
Kuldeep

 

[Saint]

Hi Saint,

I was doodling around with the Nifty chart ... trying to identify any pattern when I ended up with the attached picture. What do you think of it? Am I trying to fit the solution on the problem or does this make sense?

As I see it, the current scenario is volatile due to various reasons but come the end of monsoons and the days of 'shraad' that follow, the new festive & auspicious season will begin. Traditionally, this signifies the start of good times for businesses. People buy roti, kapda, makaan,and cars and TV's. Marriages get scheduled. Agricultural incomes start being spent with the harvesting season. People working in businesses get their annual bonuses to spend. The economy looks up and bulls wake up too.

Taking this into account, can we look forward to the double bottom reversal and the start of a bullish trend by end of September as projected in the chart?

Look at the downward volume trend. Does this also reinforce that we are getting into this pattern? I know that traditionally, one has to wait till it completes its second bottom before one can confirm the pattern, but my question is, can we reasonably assume it happening based on change of seasons as above?

Attached the weekly chart for nifty.

Comments?

Regards
Kuldeep

Yep,Kuldeep,as said in previous posts.........we could have a double bottom reversal and blast off,or a higher pivot low that just does not take out the previous low,also a blast off if that happens.Of course,the probability that it can fall right through is there as well.

Best not to get into the "predicting the future bit"........but yes,it is possible,a bullish trend by October.But ,once again,let us see how this present dntrend behaves............follow the present trend,and let the market reverse where it wants to,and we shall make decisions accordingly.

Saint

 

[kuldeep49]

Thanks Saint.
My only reason for supposing that a double bottom reversal may be on the cards is the imminent change of season ... but oil prices, liquidity, and tension among nations (including India Pakistan) have the ability to negate all 'feel good' factors.
Cheers and hope for the best.
Kuldeep

 

[pvsridhar]

hi,
I bought UTI BANK @285/- for trading purpose. Can it go upward? why becuase now it is @ 256/-. suggestions plz.

pv sridhar