New Intermed Uptrend!!

[Saint]

I believe the Trailing SL point should be around 4500, a little bit upwards. Saint will confirm it.

Regards
Raj

Hi Raj,

We have a higher pivot low and high.....we therefore say that we are an uptrend.Every time we make new highs,we raise our stop loss to the previous pivot low.I see what you are looking at,but as we didn't go to new highs,that one doesn't qualify..........keep trail stop at the previous pivot low levels.

Every strategy must have a set modus operandi,a definite set of actions and reactions to any given event.Keeping the stop losses as stated above and not getting out at every place is what kept us in the trade for this long.We therefore stick to the same plan.

Saint

 

[Saint]

Thanks for the post. i was also observing DOW. I am enclosing NIFTY chart showing Divergent rectangle or reverse traingle. Does this signfy Nifty will go upto 4800 or today is D-day

Not too sure about the Divergent Triangle bit......shall put up a chart in the night today!

Nah,there is no such thing as D-days,..............just up days,down days,and sideways days.

More later!

Saint

 

[Saint]

Hey Saint... Good to see you back here with posts...

Ah,the feeling's mutual,my friend.........good to see a post from you after a really long time.

Saint

 

[Dhanya]

Hello Saint!

Markets are picking up,but the pivot lows are broken,so we take our stops here and not wait for the close,right?

Thanks for the chart on trendlines.

Sincerely,
Dhanya

 

[Saint]

Hello Saint!

Markets are picking up,but the pivot lows are broken,so we take our stops here and not wait for the close,right?

Thanks for the chart on trendlines.

Sincerely,
Dhanya

Yes,Dhanya.......stops are at xyz area.Once xyz is taken out,we are out.......sometimes,it pulls below that area and makes a comeback.Never mind.....then look to reenter.But waiting another 150 pts from our stop and then hoping and praying it closes well......no way!

If we are out,we are out..........no compromises,nothing.

Saint

 

[Saint]

Saint,

Plz could you tell at which level this fall will stop?How much lower will this go??!!

Shashank

Sorry Shashank abt the late reply........well,nobody can really answer that one......and anybody who does needs a clobberring.But the question really is:Why bother at all?Have a few rules and try to ride the trend,upwards and downwards.........of what use is it if I were to tell you that "Market has huge support at 20ema at abcd,if abcd is broken,next strong support is efgh,if that is cracked,we may see ijkl,I don't think even efgh will be broken,but no way ijkl.I feel we will correct to abcd and then we will see new highs"[taken from some eminent fool from cnbc]

And what do we do?We say that "Wow,Mr Eminent said that markets may fall to abcd,and true enough it bounced from there,and then it fell to efgh,and then we did get a bounce from there,but markets finally made a bottom at ijkl........he is truly great!!"

That then is the crucial difference between the person who trades and the person who talks...............Mr Eminent has covered all his bases.Then he goes around saying,"Didn't I tell you?I told you all so.I told you that Market can go up if it goes above xyzz levels,and if it goes down,we could either go to abcd,efgh,or ijkl levels......Hah!!Told you all so.I am the greatest!!!.....Now would you like to join up for my seminar??"

Therefore,Mr Eminent who comes on CNBC or anywhere is always right,whatever happens to the market.............now the question is:How do YOU make money from the trends that play out in the markets?

What ever your modus operandi ............your efforts are to determine the end of an uptrend,and therefore to stop out,and short in a confirmed downtrend and vice versa.Forget all anticipation,and prediction,and where this decline will end...........If you are short,you could use the levels to take profits,but,if you are long and hoping and praying,and using these levels to comfort yourself,so that you can sleep tonight......Careful,my friend!!

So the answer to your question,in summary,is:The Market will go as low as it goes to a point where Demand steps in........our job as traders is to latch on to the trend and hold on as long as possible.

All the best!
Saint

 

[uasish]

This is the true color of a veteran speaking on a day when Boys are seperated from Men.

 

[ssnkumar]

Sorry Shashank abt the late reply........well,nobody can really answer that one......and anybody who does needs a clobberring.But the question really is:Why bother at all?Have a few rules and try to ride the trend,upwards and downwards.........of what use is it if I were to tell you that "Market has huge support at 20ema at abcd,if abcd is broken,next strong support is efgh,if that is cracked,we may see ijkl,I don't think even efgh will be broken,but no way ijkl.I feel we will correct to abcd and then we will see new highs"[taken from some eminent fool from cnbc]

And what do we do?We say that "Wow,Mr Eminent said that markets may fall to abcd,and true enough it bounced from there,and then it fell to efgh,and then we did get a bounce from there,but markets finally made a bottom at ijkl........he is truly great!!"

That then is the crucial difference between the person who trades and the person who talks...............Mr Eminent has covered all his bases.Then he goes around saying,"Didn't I tell you?I told you all so.I told you that Market can go up if it goes above xyzz levels,and if it goes down,we could either go to abcd,efgh,or ijkl levels......Hah!!Told you all so.I am the greatest!!!.....Now would you like to join up for my seminar??"

Therefore,Mr Eminent who comes on CNBC or anywhere is always right,whatever happens to the market.............now the question is:How do YOU make money from the trends that play out in the markets?

What ever your modus operandi ............your efforts are to determine the end of an uptrend,and therefore to stop out,and short in a confirmed downtrend and vice versa.Forget all anticipation,and prediction,and where this decline will end...........If you are short,you could use the levels to take profits,but,if you are long and hoping and praying,and using these levels to comfort yourself,so that you can sleep tonight......Careful,my friend!!

So the answer to your question,in summary,is:The Market will go as low as it goes to a point where Demand steps in........our job as traders is to latch on to the trend and hold on as long as possible.

All the best!
Saint

Sometimes I feel disgusted at the way these "So called experts" give prediction on CNBC!
I think, the technical analysis can give us some indication. But, markets don't behave based on the technicals.
All these charts, we can write only after the day has passed. Nobody could exactly tell where will the sensex or nifty will be on 27th August (1 month from now).

There is much more to market than technical analysis and mathematical charts. Market is driven by demand and supply. And nobody can exactly tell, when the demand will increase or decrease.

So, instead of predicting on the market directions, we must look at individual stocks, study their fundamentals, study their charts and then take a decision.
If you are long term investor, pick up few good ones and wait for few months / years.
If you are a trader, then you should keep your ears and eyes open. Not only should you be watching the charts, you must also be seeking news, global cues, etc.

 

[Satyen]

Hi Satya,

Correct if you are comfortable with it.This is what I meant by "discomfort" levels that day.The markets are dumping but you are no where near your pivot stop,so you hold.Your mind is counting the amount of "potential gains" lost.Basically,you leave quite a bit on the table in a bid to stay with the trend as long as possible.You are out only when trends confirm so.

A piece of advice:We stay with the trend as much as possible,but have a look at the charts...........as discussed before in the other thread,the trendlines get steeper and steeper,as excited greedy money gets in.If such a scenario occurs -----all time highs,multiple positive weeks in a row,divergences on many indicators,price still shooting to new highs,trendlines getting steeper,-----get out on the break of the green trendline and look to reenter later.

We should have got out at 4555 and below.......in this case,a gap down and therefore get out at the open.

If you are a hard core pivots player,you are now watching,and out totally at 4452.

All the best!
Saint

Thank you very much saint ....... for your explanation and those things about steeper trend line ..... yes one has to get out at 4555 and can re enter later ....

Learning from your every post

One doubt
In general , can this type of situation be handle with MM or position sizing when we have our stop loss far away ..... like we exited our half position at 4555 and half at 4452


please explain

waiting your reply
Regards
Satya

 

[maxmak]

Dear Saint,
Well today i made money buying huge quantities! It was a 300 fall down and i picked up Maruti, Nagarjuna Fertilisers,TCS, Karnataka Bank along with others and made money in all of these..... I closed 70% of my poistions and kept 30% of them for tommorow ....Why? Reliance is going to be a Eye popper aswell as SBI also the Dow Jones fall is overdone and has achieved its target at 13550 and I think it is going to be a bit tough to cross 13650 but Dow will do it eventually.
All the analysts in the world paint a bad picture of US markets. However the US knows what it is doing. It really is a Master at the Game. Dow my personal target is 18000 and I feel the World cannot go down till that time.
I have based this on Theory of my father who is 84 and has been in stocks since 1940s.....I have previously sold Infosys at its top using his theories..... even today he sits and watches CNBC and tells me this is a buy and this is a sell. His theories are more stronger than my 2 decades of Technical Analysis.....
So let us not get overly bearish.
God Bless.
Regards/Max/ [email protected]