New Intermed Uptrend!!
- Thread starter Saint
- Start date
- Status
Hi LVG,
If you were in short the NIFTY FUTS today,then when that recent pivot high got cracked on the up,that was exit point(as Avinash did in the posts above).
So far what do we have?Still an intermediate uptrend.......no changes there as yet.We have a daily downtrend till today with pivot highs breaking to the up today.
Therefore are we sure whether this downtrend is done?A few scenarios.....
Scenario A :NIFTY moves up from here and corrects on Friday,thereby ending this week around these levels........We are bullish!If you are not into holding weekends,buy the high of this week's bar on Monday,and get ready for a bullish move.
Scenario B :NIFTY,unexpectedly,dumps next 2 days,ending the week below 4325(unlikely)......then the downtrend is still on.
Scenario C:NIFTY does nothing the next 2 days,then that's as good as Scenario A.
So,daily charts-wise,the downtrend has been broken......not a confirmed uptrend yet.A move up tomorrow and a mild correction on Friday will give us that higher pivot low and a possible start to a new uptrend.......And weekly charts are still in Bull Terrain.
Unless of course,a huge gap down on Friday or Monday followed by a hard fall spoils the party ......
Happy Trading!
Saint
If you were in short the NIFTY FUTS today,then when that recent pivot high got cracked on the up,that was exit point(as Avinash did in the posts above).
So far what do we have?Still an intermediate uptrend.......no changes there as yet.We have a daily downtrend till today with pivot highs breaking to the up today.
Therefore are we sure whether this downtrend is done?A few scenarios.....
Scenario A :NIFTY moves up from here and corrects on Friday,thereby ending this week around these levels........We are bullish!If you are not into holding weekends,buy the high of this week's bar on Monday,and get ready for a bullish move.
Scenario B :NIFTY,unexpectedly,dumps next 2 days,ending the week below 4325(unlikely)......then the downtrend is still on.
Scenario C:NIFTY does nothing the next 2 days,then that's as good as Scenario A.
So,daily charts-wise,the downtrend has been broken......not a confirmed uptrend yet.A move up tomorrow and a mild correction on Friday will give us that higher pivot low and a possible start to a new uptrend.......And weekly charts are still in Bull Terrain.
Unless of course,a huge gap down on Friday or Monday followed by a hard fall spoils the party ......
Happy Trading!
Saint
Last edited:
Dear Saint,
Thanks for the explanation. I am delivery based swing trader. Hence I think I can do only long. I don't trade in Nifty. I use NIFTY analysis to see market trend. I think then I am correct short term trend of market is downstill and will be considered up only when next pivot low higher than previous pivot low is made.
Thanks for the explanation. I am delivery based swing trader. Hence I think I can do only long. I don't trade in Nifty. I use NIFTY analysis to see market trend. I think then I am correct short term trend of market is downstill and will be considered up only when next pivot low higher than previous pivot low is made.
Is it necessary to have a correction on friday to consider the uptrend. I understand that it is good to enter a trade after being corrected and rise above the previous weekly high in this case.
Considering another scenario today and friday is up and next monday and tuesday corrected and wednesday last week's up can also be taken as similar move right.
In another scenario by the end of the week if it closed below 4325 then the daily downtrend is confirmed right and we wait for rally and short below the last week low.
What if we dont see any correction or rally then how we should go about it.
Regards
Raj
Considering another scenario today and friday is up and next monday and tuesday corrected and wednesday last week's up can also be taken as similar move right.
In another scenario by the end of the week if it closed below 4325 then the daily downtrend is confirmed right and we wait for rally and short below the last week low.
What if we dont see any correction or rally then how we should go about it.
Regards
Raj
yep,.....that would be yet another scenario,and would be just as fine.
The present trend on the weekly charts after today is still the same as yesterday,......still an uptrend with a correction.Daily charts were always in a dntrend,so you don't exactly have to wait for some cofirmation for a swing short.You need something to happen in the charts to confirm that a change in trend has happened..........not required if trend continues in the same direction.So,if it isn't yet another huge gap down,shorting below today's bar low will get you back into the trend.
To say that this is an intermediate dntrend,it has do as you had suggested or it must break below 4304(last month's low)........that has not happened as yet.
So what do you do?You could short below the low of today(meaning not a 100 pts later if a monster gap down),and add more as prices break below 4325,and again below 4300..................where should your stops be?Problem there,thanks to a move like today's...take the last 60min bar's high ie 4446 as your stop(for swing,not intraday)......If tomorrow has the ability to take out that level,you might as well take your stop losses,and sit things out and see how the weekly charts pan out and make a clear cut decision on Monday.
Therefore,in summary,the intermediate term is still in an uptrend,experiencing a correction.........the daily charts are in a downtrend,and another move tomorrow like today,means no change in that downtrend.The shorts that you take tomorrow are either intraday,max swing shorts(depending on the move tomorrow).But,caution at these levels,if you are short..........If this week closes around here,cover all shorts and look at a possible rally next week.
But as always,market scenarios change every day(for the longer term players) and of course every 5minutes for the intraday players.......so let's see how things go tomorrow.
All the best!
Happy Trading!
Saint
The present trend on the weekly charts after today is still the same as yesterday,......still an uptrend with a correction.Daily charts were always in a dntrend,so you don't exactly have to wait for some cofirmation for a swing short.You need something to happen in the charts to confirm that a change in trend has happened..........not required if trend continues in the same direction.So,if it isn't yet another huge gap down,shorting below today's bar low will get you back into the trend.
To say that this is an intermediate dntrend,it has do as you had suggested or it must break below 4304(last month's low)........that has not happened as yet.
So what do you do?You could short below the low of today(meaning not a 100 pts later if a monster gap down),and add more as prices break below 4325,and again below 4300..................where should your stops be?Problem there,thanks to a move like today's...take the last 60min bar's high ie 4446 as your stop(for swing,not intraday)......If tomorrow has the ability to take out that level,you might as well take your stop losses,and sit things out and see how the weekly charts pan out and make a clear cut decision on Monday.
Therefore,in summary,the intermediate term is still in an uptrend,experiencing a correction.........the daily charts are in a downtrend,and another move tomorrow like today,means no change in that downtrend.The shorts that you take tomorrow are either intraday,max swing shorts(depending on the move tomorrow).But,caution at these levels,if you are short..........If this week closes around here,cover all shorts and look at a possible rally next week.
But as always,market scenarios change every day(for the longer term players) and of course every 5minutes for the intraday players.......so let's see how things go tomorrow.
All the best!
Happy Trading!
Saint
- Status
Similar threads
-
-
-
-
Swing Trading Stock Pick - Dabur India - Beginning of a New Intermediate Uptrend
- Started by Traderji
- Replies: 14
-