New Intermed Uptrend!!

[kkseal]

LVG,

Yep on all of the above............I am just taking a small quantity here with stops nearby,and then adding at previous pivot highs on the daily. Rest as usual......Why?Is this not anticipating a move?Yes as admitted before.........only when patterns compel.Entry here with SL 4 rupees away,if stopped,well,that happens.........Would I do it everytime I get a higher pivot low?No,depends on the quality.........the longer this support holds the yummier it gets.

I would usually react to pivot highs getting taken out,which is still where the bulk quantity is going to come in.

Is there any harm in waiting first and getting in on confirmation of pivot high crack?None whatsoever........if GMR gaps down on Monday,you would be more right in waiting first.

Saint

Finally something from Saint that i like

In fact imo the pivot low is a safer entry imho with the stop nearby (& keeping the last pivot high as the 1st tgt)

As a general procedure

1) Wait for the pivot low to form (Bill Williams' 5 bar 'fractal' rule can be used to define pivot completion)
2) Enter above the high of the last bar (once the pivot is complete)

(BTW, both Dr Williams & Dr Srikumar make use of the pivot which is the smallest pattern fractal. But the smallest fractal on the chart is the Bar & each bar has it's corresponding pivots in a lower tf. So in that sense entry above a bar is the same as entry abv a pivot - just a matter of perspective w.r.t. tfs.)

Regards,
Kalyan.

P.S. : 'Fractal' as used here is of the Bill William variety.

 

[vvvv]

@KK SEAL
since u r the only1 who has spoke abt fractals , i want to clarify sum doubts of mine.
saints pivot & williams fractals method of identifying is the same.
w.r.t tht according to bill williams where he states tht once a fractal is identified to put a buy 1 tick above the high of the bar where the fractal was formed.saint uses the same where if the last pivot high is cracked he will put a buy order.
it may delay an entry but the entry will be safe...saints exit is when the last pivot low is cracked , he will bail out.where as williams has put the alligator red line as the stop & in a runaway market the green line as the stop.
saints exit is a bit delayed as u have to wait for the last pivot low to crak..but then he also states tht if he is sitting on a lot of profit , he will trail his stops up in a manner comfortable to him...the comfort zone will differ from person to person.
pls correct me if im wrong.
PS : this strategy is for going long.

 

[kkseal]

By the same logic that 3 bar 1-2-3 pattern is nonsense. It's no separate pattern at all I'm simply following Saint (assuming he is in a smaller tf - say daily) on a higher tf (say Weekly).

Yet such a simple thing took time to enter my dense head. I spent nearly an hour hunting for Saint's post on the pattern & some more time hunting it down on the net!

Regards,
Kalyan.

 

[Saint]

Hi Saint,

For Adlabsfilm Would you follow the same logic that you did for Essar Oil?

Both are in monthly up... and weekly down. In both the Daily has made a higher pivot low and hence the dailies are looking good.

Looking forward to your response.

Amit.

I was just going to post ADLABS when I saw this post........yep,looking great.Confirmation of daily uptrend is when that prev pivot high is taken out.Now a few negatives.....Look at the monthly chart,check out the blast off that occurred in 3 months prior to the fall.It would have been greater if the pullback was half to two-thirds of that rally,but retracing the full distance is not very bullish as far as intermed and primary uptrends are concerned.But a break of previous pivot highs still give us a tradeable daily uptrend,.......of course,to exit on a pivot low crack on the daily.

If we get one solid month up,and then probably a few sideways,then would say that this one's looking all yummy all over again.

Saint

 

[Saint]

Dear Saint,

ADLABSFILM can be considered a good buy above 690?

Awaiting your response,

Thanks

Reji

Yes,Reji.......

Saint

 

[kkseal]

VVVV:

Don't remember all of Bill William's stuff. Almost all of what he uses is common TA stuff he just assigns fancy names to them. From what i remember of the alligator he uses it to identify when prices are trending & then makes his entry using 'fractals' pretty much the same way Saint does. Saint bases everything on pivots including trend identification. It's your choice which one you want to use. Personally i don't think the Alligator is absolutely necessary. Even for exists a trendline brk would be adequate for such a system (the tl - which can be considered the smallest 'fractal' for pattern boundaries - can also be used for earlier entry and/or pyramiding. Think how)

One disadvtg of using Pivot high as entry is that the dist bet entry & stop is higher*. So during sharp moves the risk gets higher & you either take this higher risk or fall back on a 2% (or x%) stop which is NOT a logical stop level viz a viz the system (& otherwise). The only other option is to drill down to a lower tf & pick up a pivot level there for a tighter stop. There's also the issue of slippage.

However opinions vary It's finally a matter of what one is comfortable with. Personally i do not use pivots either for entry exits or stops. Saint is a much better authority on the subject. I have just expressed my views assuming Saint wouldn't mind.

Regards,
Kalyan.

* not so much on lower tfs but higher ones

 

[Saint]

VVVV:

Don't remember all of Bill William's stuff. Almost all of what he uses is common TA stuff he just assigns fancy names to them. From what i remember of the alligator he uses it to identify when prices are trending & then makes his entry using 'fractals' pretty much the same way Saint does. Saint bases everything on pivots including trend identification. It's your choice which one you want to use. Personally i don't think the Alligator is absolutely necessary. Even for exists a trendline brk would be adequate for such a system (the tl - which can be considered the smallest 'fractal' for pattern boundaries - can also be used for earlier entry and/or pyramiding. Think how)

One disadvtg of using Pivot high as entry is that the dist bet entry & stop is higher*. So during sharp moves the risk gets higher & you either take this higher risk or fall back on a 2% (or x%) stop which is NOT a logical stop level viz a viz the system (& otherwise). The only other option is to drill down to a lower tf & pick up a pivot level there for a tighter stop. There's also the issue of slippage.

However opinions vary It's finally a matter of what one is comfortable with. Personally i do not use pivots either for entry exits or stops. Saint is a much better authority on the subject. I have just expressed my views assuming Saint wouldn't mind.

Regards,
Kalyan.

* not so much on lower tfs but higher ones

Never one to mind some great posts from you,Kalyan.....thanx as always!

Saint

 

[Saint]

Noida Toll consolidating nicely around 41 levels. Any breakouts seen?

- Hitesh

That weekly is worrying.......although I do see what you are looking at on the daily.If you are trading the daily breakout,fine,but out as soon as pivots crack,or initial stops triggerred.

Saint

 

[Saint]

Finally something from Saint that i like

In fact imo the pivot low is a safer entry imho with the stop nearby (& keeping the last pivot high as the 1st tgt)

As a general procedure

1) Wait for the pivot low to form (Bill Williams' 5 bar 'fractal' rule can be used to define pivot completion)
2) Enter above the high of the last bar (once the pivot is complete)

(BTW, both Dr Williams & Dr Srikumar make use of the pivot which is the smallest pattern fractal. But the smallest fractal on the chart is the Bar & each bar has it's corresponding pivots in a lower tf. So in that sense entry above a bar is the same as entry abv a pivot - just a matter of perspective w.r.t. tfs.)

Regards,
Kalyan.

P.S. : 'Fractal' as used here is of the Bill William variety.

Getting in at every pivot low can get you into a lot of false entries........ah,I see your target is the last pivot high.I am looking for something much ,much more than that.

I personally am trying to catch a trend move,and would like to exit when the trend reverses.Therefore,buying the first break of pivot highs is entry and first break of pivot lows is exit.And in between,a lot of trail stopping.........but yes,whichever works for you is great.

I have yet to understand the word meaning of fractal,at least what Williams means by it,and probably need to read up something about it before I can comment on similarities and differences.

When we get a higher pivot low on the daily,and then come down into the 60min charts,we are actually buying previous pivot highs on the 60,yes,thereby giving us an earlier entry........but at times one can get a lot of false starts before really capturing the move.Position sized well,when that move happens,all the little losses from the false starts get nullified in that big move up.Some may prefer some degree of confirmation,before pumping money in,and reacting from that......others prefer to get in early and add on a bit later.Neither is wrong........If strategy is obeyed and adhered to,both sets will be laughing to the bank.

As always,some great stuff from you!

Thanks,
Saint

ps: Dr Sree Kumar,not Dr Srikumar........

 

[kkseal]

Getting in at every pivot low can get you into a lot of false entries........ah,I see your target is the last pivot high.I am looking for something much ,much more than that.

I personally am trying to catch a trend move,and would like to exit when the trend reverses.Therefore,buying the first break of pivot highs is entry and first break of pivot lows is exit.And in between,a lot of trail stopping.........but yes,whichever works for you is great.

I have yet to understand the word meaning of fractal,at least what Williams means by it,and probably need to read up something about it before I can comment on similarities and differences.

When we get a higher pivot low on the daily,and then come down into the 60min charts,we are actually buying previous pivot highs on the 60,yes,thereby giving us an earlier entry........but at times one can get a lot of false starts before really capturing the move.Position sized well,when that move happens,all the little losses from the false starts get nullified in that big move up.Some may prefer some degree of confirmation,before pumping money in,and reacting from that......others prefer to get in early and add on a bit later.Neither is wrong........If strategy is obeyed and adhered to,both sets will be laughing to the bank.

As always,some great stuff from you!

Thanks,
Saint

ps: Dr Sree Kumar,not Dr Srikumar........

Oh i see 'Kumar' is the surname right? Henceforth i'll stick to what i'm familiar with - our good old (young actually Saint.

As for the 1st tgt - in reality that would only be a watch-out level (specially if the Higher tf trend is still flat or down) & the bigger move is also what i'd be looking for.

After entering the pullback (pivot low) one can watch out for 2 things

i) whether the next (subsequent) Pivot high takes out the preceding pivot high
ii) whether the pullback from this next Pivot high forms a lower pivot that's higher* than ones entry (at the preceding lower pivot) level

If the trend persists both of the above should happen; in that case one can pyramid at this (subsequent) lower pivot - using the same kind of entry in the same manner as at the preceding lower pivot.

If either or both doesn't happen, then one can conclude that the trend isn't mature yet (or an existing trend is weakening), maybe it's entering a new ranging phase - & accordingly one can decide to get out/ book partially on the next up leg or simply adopt a wait & watch policy (with the low-risk protective stop already in place).

However as you mentioned the possibility of a false move is always there. That's why i think one should wait for the pivot low to form completely (2 higher bars on either side of the pivot bar) & entry above the high of the last (5th) bar. (Also cues can be taken from a lower tf to see if the trend has matured there & satisfying the 2 aforesaid conditions; but in intraday trading handling so many tfs in RT can be impractical)

Anyway i posted this only as a view that occurred to me (particularly after reading that early-entry post of yours . Your method is time-tested. So carry on your good work.

Also like the fact the method is evolving. I liked the change in exit rules for higher tfs - from pivot to bar (which is an indirect use of a lower tf pivot). You have also incorporated patterns, but would suggest not using too many of them as the beauty of this one lies in its simplicity & non-subjectivity.

Regards,
Kalyan.

*or at least within the range of the entry bar