Markets have been moving up all over the world only on noise, one day its the noise of Mario Draghi , the other day its the voice of Merkel/Hollande, next it will be Bernanke. The bigger picture still remains unchanged. Problems still remain unsolved. Market will soon realize this and start its journey downwards. Now coming tot the technicals, SP500 as I've said in my previous post kissed the 78.6% retracement level of 1389. Now, what happens next. Alright let me consider two scenarios here.
1. Either it starts going down from here right away or it moves up to test 1406 which is the key resistance area and then starts moving down. To me the latter is possible especially since we have Bernanke's testimony in the coming week. Markets tend to be extremely volatile ahead of Big Ben's speech always.
2. Scenario 2 would be to take out 1422 and move higher throwing the charts off the window and invalidating wave B and making the analysts scratch their heads in disgust
However this remains an unlikely scenario in the current environment.
To summarize, short term Pop is possible , thanks to our Draghis, Merkels and Big Bens of the world. However the overall environment stills looks gloomy. I trust my charts completely and stick to my guard that if 1422 is not taken out , then SP500 should be heading lower and should take out 2012 lows and head to much lower levels by the end of the year. What happens if 1422 is taken out ? In this case upside would be still limited and eventually market would still head lower.
What happens to Nifty next ? Tracking the global markets, nifty should follow the global trend , keeping aside the domestic factors for the time being. Key reversal is placed at 5170 and if this taken out 5280-5300 is possible in the short term.
Following week could be quite decisive in terms of assessing the targets for the remaining part of the year. That's it for now. Have a good weekend.
Today's global move has put most of the EWP analysts like me in a tizzy. We were prepared with the wave counts and markets were behaving perfectly until today. There are some adjustments that needs to be made especially since SP500 took out the recent highs and literally kissed the 78.6% retracement levels of the 1422 fall. Will post an update once I get the data after today's US market close.