NIFTY 50 future TRENDS
- Thread starter sudoku1
- Start date
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Some points of concern (not that I'm bearish or bullish)
1. Bank margins will be hit by 15% to 25% due to hike in saving deposit rates. Further if news in bank corners are to be believed, a deregulation in savings deposit rate and upto 5.5% is being talked by bankers and RBI subject to pending decision. A mere 0.5% hike hits an average of 22%, what will hike for further 1.5% do!?
2. Seems govt/RBI/finmin all are busy praying rain God. If rain is ok, govt is expecting fall in inflation. However there was bumper crop last year, normal rain and we have inflation at peak. Most of the time Pranab da comes on tv speaks "IF"!
3. GDP is in downtrend, govt played with figures and made agriculture data high (is my assumption) just to keep everyone happy. My reason of thinking the same is there was no crop season for QoQ Jan to March and the wheat crops were actually hit by sever cold in most part of north India. Even if you take GDP at 8.2 QoQ, it's not summing up to 8.5 YoY. Either govt will come with some more inflated data or correct it's expectations later. Reason of further bad numbers is in this quarter bank rates are at highs, sales of vehicles are down, service sector comprises of banks will be most hit on margins, industrial growth should remain stable to bad due to high rates, bad condition in mid east and consumption story being halted due to inflation.
4. Recent upmove started due to rumours which are still not confirmed by RIL/ONGC. I remember ONGC cheif coming on cnbc awaj very next moment subisdy burden was increased, everyone in market knew about it but ONCG cheif denied it balantly. He was in deinal mode on ndtv profit after 2 hours even when PTI reported that subsidy burder on upstream compnies is increased. Also RIL was quick to deny DGH report of 38 mm something output though market knew it before once again and RIL was quick to deny. But on news of giving free hand in gas pricing, which is still not confirmed by govt, only sources has come up with such news, RIL is silent. In any of the ways, RIL loss is ONGC gain but both news came on same day and turned a bear market bullish. We are 200+ points above now but still sources are not being confirmed.
1. Bank margins will be hit by 15% to 25% due to hike in saving deposit rates. Further if news in bank corners are to be believed, a deregulation in savings deposit rate and upto 5.5% is being talked by bankers and RBI subject to pending decision. A mere 0.5% hike hits an average of 22%, what will hike for further 1.5% do!?
2. Seems govt/RBI/finmin all are busy praying rain God. If rain is ok, govt is expecting fall in inflation. However there was bumper crop last year, normal rain and we have inflation at peak. Most of the time Pranab da comes on tv speaks "IF"!
3. GDP is in downtrend, govt played with figures and made agriculture data high (is my assumption) just to keep everyone happy. My reason of thinking the same is there was no crop season for QoQ Jan to March and the wheat crops were actually hit by sever cold in most part of north India. Even if you take GDP at 8.2 QoQ, it's not summing up to 8.5 YoY. Either govt will come with some more inflated data or correct it's expectations later. Reason of further bad numbers is in this quarter bank rates are at highs, sales of vehicles are down, service sector comprises of banks will be most hit on margins, industrial growth should remain stable to bad due to high rates, bad condition in mid east and consumption story being halted due to inflation.
4. Recent upmove started due to rumours which are still not confirmed by RIL/ONGC. I remember ONGC cheif coming on cnbc awaj very next moment subisdy burden was increased, everyone in market knew about it but ONCG cheif denied it balantly. He was in deinal mode on ndtv profit after 2 hours even when PTI reported that subsidy burder on upstream compnies is increased. Also RIL was quick to deny DGH report of 38 mm something output though market knew it before once again and RIL was quick to deny. But on news of giving free hand in gas pricing, which is still not confirmed by govt, only sources has come up with such news, RIL is silent. In any of the ways, RIL loss is ONGC gain but both news came on same day and turned a bear market bullish. We are 200+ points above now but still sources are not being confirmed.
Oil has a very less waitage on mkt but i agree it do has a minimum load to stop the fall
But bank nifty and banking secto is totally pure mkt and has a very big load on nifty and on mkt if gov plays with figures it will play 1-2 days but after that not only down trend but also a free face fall can be seen if even a minor -(ve) sentiment can bring a heavy panic selling
Aur humare FII's ne agar bechna shuru kar diya toh malik nifty ko bachaye
But soduku bhai good job tgt- 5777 i really appriciate your tgt but 5580 is trend reversal and max it should go up is 5598-5605/9 maxxxx5612
5612 ko sl rakhke mein kal nifty ko thokunga chalo yaar aap bhi sahi ho
Happy Trading
Healthy Earnings
But bank nifty and banking secto is totally pure mkt and has a very big load on nifty and on mkt if gov plays with figures it will play 1-2 days but after that not only down trend but also a free face fall can be seen if even a minor -(ve) sentiment can bring a heavy panic selling
Aur humare FII's ne agar bechna shuru kar diya toh malik nifty ko bachaye
But soduku bhai good job tgt- 5777 i really appriciate your tgt but 5580 is trend reversal and max it should go up is 5598-5605/9 maxxxx5612
5612 ko sl rakhke mein kal nifty ko thokunga chalo yaar aap bhi sahi ho
Happy Trading
Healthy Earnings
Oil has a very less waitage on mkt but i agree it do has a minimum load to stop the fall
But bank nifty and banking secto is totally pure mkt and has a very big load on nifty and on mkt if gov plays with figures it will play 1-2 days but after that not only down trend but also a free face fall can be seen if even a minor -(ve) sentiment can bring a heavy panic selling
Aur humare FII's ne agar bechna shuru kar diya toh malik nifty ko bachaye
But soduku bhai good job tgt- 5777 i really appriciate your tgt but 5580 is trend reversal and max it should go up is 5598-5605/9 maxxxx5612
5612 ko sl rakhke mein kal nifty ko thokunga chalo yaar aap bhi sahi ho
Happy Trading
Healthy Earnings
But bank nifty and banking secto is totally pure mkt and has a very big load on nifty and on mkt if gov plays with figures it will play 1-2 days but after that not only down trend but also a free face fall can be seen if even a minor -(ve) sentiment can bring a heavy panic selling
Aur humare FII's ne agar bechna shuru kar diya toh malik nifty ko bachaye
But soduku bhai good job tgt- 5777 i really appriciate your tgt but 5580 is trend reversal and max it should go up is 5598-5605/9 maxxxx5612
5612 ko sl rakhke mein kal nifty ko thokunga chalo yaar aap bhi sahi ho
Happy Trading
Healthy Earnings
Bought 5400pe @43/- (4 lots) no sl... will add 8 more @20.50.... target 120+
For the first time I am disagree with sudoku's target.... my target is still 5222 before 15th....sorry SUDOKU bro....
exited my preivous 5200pe & 5600ce at no p/l...
For the first time I am disagree with sudoku's target.... my target is still 5222 before 15th....sorry SUDOKU bro....
exited my preivous 5200pe & 5600ce at no p/l...
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