NIFTY 50 future TRENDS

[vinst]

Hi T4J,

Market Structure is the key to the play...

When have we witnessed the market structure collapsing.....during whatever downside was witnessed.... I didn't see it collapse recently when we broke 5200 on an intraday basis....

It might get you thinking what is this market structure.....

I do not pour over data...just keeping a close watch on macro picture..... with respect to global picture is enough.....and there a few other things when the soundbytes from the big fund go out of their way to voice their bearishness....on local channels.......

Have you ever noticed in the past.... when slew of big funds having their India Investor Conference....and they had practically taken over the channels to voice how & why they were bearish on India....... while in the background they collected money and deployed....

Going back a little more during the meltdown.... when the sensex was around 7600-7800...does anybody remember what was being spoken on the channels then......let me refresh some of your memories....a particular morning when it looked like that those on the sidelines would start deploying some fund....we had atleast five global bigwigs..... Robert Parker, Stephen Roach, Marc Mobius, and there were a couple more who all voiced that sensex would go down below 5000 and that's when they would deploy money in our markets...... what really happened was they accumulated at that point...while those who were planning to deploy that morning held back waiting for 5000 on sensex.....

I have written this several times..... key is to understand... that Funds will create fear among small investors...... when they accumulate.... theory is do whatever it takes to keep the small guys away from the market when the big guys are on buying spree....so that when the time come to book profit.... there is such euphoria created..... that most small guys get in at the top....and this is how the game is played and will always be played...Period.

I have been reading all sorts of figures being bandied about from 4000 to 4800.... want them all to come back in 3 months time...and offer their comments.....

& Don't kid yourself to think I play only positional.... yes I play positional which one will find it hard pressed to remain in a trade for as long as I have remained..... but I play the Intraday with the same alacrity.......

Some months back some member here provided all sorts of fundamental analysis and comparisons and that he would buy COAL India at 100 bucks.....

I am sure we have all sorts traders wanting reverse their positions at various points... but if they are not realistic in their assumptions...they might as well stay out or remain on the wrong side and bear the pain....

Also one will rarely find me sitting on the fence....My only endeavour is to be more right than wrong......

Frankly I do not know what is with Sudoku's prediction of the lower target.... because if he is such a long term forecaster...a few weeks back he had posted up target for a single day and immediately went back to lower target form his next posting......such long dated forecasting doesn't change on a single days move....I am sure something has gone wrong somewhere....

SG

SG,

Yours is a great explanation but I must also commend Kingfisher also since he is also going by market trend (i guess weekly based?).
The difference I am finding is: SG has belief in his forecast that market is gone bullish due to several indirect factors but Kingfisher hasn't made forecast.
I am presently of the view that market is bullish but weak uptrend. I have shifted half my funds from debt investments to equity.

 

[SavantGarde]

Vinst,

One of the things to unravel the market structure.....
is to understand number of players are almost constant....
while at times they will be equally divided where one witnesses the push and pulls at both ends..... while at other times.....when the number bulls go up...it reduces the bears in the same number.....that gives rise to a trending upmove....similarly it goes when the Bears increase in numbers...

My comment was in direct response to T4J and has nothing to do with KF's remarks and commentary......everybody has a right to their opinion...which can always be debatable.... I am not in the mood to debate anybodys comments.... Will let the market to that...

By the way...here is something to mull over.... when people say Up Trend from 5650 when we were at 5400 levels.....or even below... that... I am more interested in the participants who are taking the Index from 5400 levels to 5650...why do I have to wait for 5650 to go long....This is where understanding the market and being right is helpful.....

SG

SG,

Yours is a great explanation but I must also commend Kingfisher also since he is also going by market trend (i guess weekly based?).
The difference I am finding is: SG has belief in his forecast that market is gone bullish due to several indirect factors but Kingfisher hasn't made forecast.
I am presently of the view that market is bullish but weak uptrend. I have shifted half my funds from debt investments to equity.

 

[SavantGarde]

Vinst,

I don't forecast and then take Trades.... I take the Trades first...and then comment....

I have witnessed many though not in this thread.... to forecast almost 8-10% on either side .... that my friend... even a cobbler on the street can do if you give him that much leeway....

SG

 

[trader.trends]

One of the things to unravel the market structure.....
.This is where understanding the market and being right is helpful.....

SG

SG, I understand the importance of this. But how do we do it? What are the tools for it? Sometimes I get the feeling that the best traders are discretionary traders but who somehow have been able to figure out this mkt structure intuitively.

 

[SavantGarde]

TT,

Market Structure.....

1) Identify the type of participants at that point of the market
2) Look for psychology being adopted.....
3) Look....for unusual or above average positions in Options...

By the way... all this stuff about Sovereign Debt Default is part of the strategy adopted.....Rating agencies are nothing but tools in the hands of a few.....just that it has now that the rating agency tool has got a little blunted.... in the last meeting.... it was declared irrespective of the downgrades by rating agencies they will buy the troubled countries bonds....and that ratings will not play any part in their actions.... these comments have some very very big implications.....going forward...

Why do you think Iceland is not being discussed..... because they just said...that they aren't going to restructure anything...and all those yelling for restructuring can go to hell....and that the problems in any case was created by the foreign banks....so they don't really care how they get their money back.

Basically one needs to keep abreast of happenings around...and find the real reasons for such happenings.... & use them to ones advantage......

Anyways.... as and when I see something significant...it shall be posted in the mother thread.....

SG

SG, I understand the importance of this. But how do we do it? What are the tools for it? Sometimes I get the feeling that the best traders are discretionary traders but who somehow have been able to figure out this mkt structure intuitively.

 

[SavantGarde]

.... here is something for most of you who are not struggling with your trades...to go up another notch....

Irrespective on whatever basis one has taken a trade.....

Let's assume... one takes a trade @ 100 with a view that it will give 10 points...thus moving upto 110.... Don't sit on your butt for it touch 110... because it is not going to go to 110 without gyrations....

Therefore...to hone your trading skills further...see if one can squeeze atleast 20 points till it touches 110...... this extra milking...helps in creating additional margin of safety..... & staying in the trade longer if required...

Here is another example of an Intraday I had taken in June which went badly against me...and to compound the problem further.....lost internet connection for a while....

I had entered TM @ 1033.10 looking at the average ATP of 1045.xx
Though did get a chance to exit around...1038.xx & then my connection vanished for sometime..& when it did return TM was quoting around 1021.xx
Traded it once and made some points.... and then I put the July series below it..... and next day was even worse for TM but July was quoting almost 12 bucks lower....and then at some point took long entry in July series...@ 963.xx
and couple more lots.... a little lower....and eventually exited June series around 1011.xx.... and the July series somedays back @ 1046.xx, 1038.xx 1041.xx....

This is just an illustration if one keeps cool..... can turn things around...

Let me tell you guys if you haven't overtraded....one can always....turn a loosing position around.....

SG

 

[timepass]

This is just an illustration if one keeps cool..... can turn things around...

and has sufficient funds and time to keep averaging down, I suppose.

 

[sudoku1]

http://m.economictimes.com/PDAET/articleshow/9347393.cms

 

[manoharpillai]

Imagine some one kept on buying stocks like unitech Suzlan. When these stocks where trading at much higher levels fundamentals of these stocks where suppose to be good.
This exposes the very high risk involved in stock trading or investments. I think one have to plan to exit at some point where losses or no more accepted trading in a particular script. This is my view but I have great regards to SG's observations and comments.

 

[SavantGarde]

Manohar,

To support your argument don't give daft examples of SUZLON & UNITECH....

Suzlon...when it was around 85-88 Levels more than a year back.... told Investors to dump it and never ever get into it...at any price.....

As far as risk is concerned..... one may argue that riding a bike is riskier than driving a car...but then for that matter even walking on the road has its own inherent risk......even that I am careful...always to walk on the side of oncoming traffic....

SG

Imagine some one kept on buying stocks like unitech Suzlan. When these stocks where trading at much higher levels fundamentals of these stocks where suppose to be good.
This exposes the very high risk involved in stock trading or investments. I think one have to plan to exit at some point where losses or no more accepted trading in a particular script. This is my view but I have great regards to SG's observations and comments.