NIFTY 50 future TRENDS

[PGDIMES]

Then do not expect mkts to cross those levels ..

Murtaza-bhai,

Beg to differ... The OI in 5400 PE on the expiry day of February series was more than 9.75 million... and you know what happened on that day...

 

[amitr]

Then do not expect mkts to cross those levels ..

Spot is 51XX, Volatility is up and OI is up for 5200/5300 CE's. Logic asks why would anyone pay more unless they expect the market to go up?

The dumb money logic could usually apply to far out 4XXX OTM Puts which have also seen an increase in OI either by people who are super bearish and want a lower circuit or hedging their bets due to fear

 

[PGDIMES]

Spot is 51XX, Volatility is up and OI is up for 5200/5300 CE's. Logic asks why would anyone pay more unless they expect the market to go up?

When the mkt goes down, VIX generally shoots up... so still didn't get your logic...

 

[amitr]

VIX having an inverse relationship with the direction of the market could be just one aspect. But VIX along with OI interpretation of ATM CE's and PE's could provide near term directions

 

[mkbsiva]

VIX having an inverse relationship with the direction of the market could be just one aspect. But VIX along with OI interpretation of ATM CE's and PE's could provide near term directions

Haven't heard much about this concepts of finding the near term directions... could u pls explain a little more of this in detail.... after market hours....

thanks
siva...

 

[starscream]

afaik i remember i was the only 1 bearish at the day when nifty crashed due to 50bps.
from that day. nifty has gone down systematically.
now expect some sideways movement. as vix has shot up too high all options have become too expensive.

 

[PGDIMES]

afaik i remember i was the only 1 bearish at the day when nifty crashed due to 50bps.
from that day. nifty has gone down systematically.
now expect some sideways movement. as vix has shot up too high all options have become too expensive.

Yeah... I have already suggested your name to the 'Guiness Book of World Records'... :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

 

[MurAtt]

@PGD

THAT was just one-off. Of couse no-one can guarantee that it cannot happen again BUT you can't use it as a yardstick for regular measurements.

OI builtup at 51 and 52 CE is there BUT again the overall PE OI at those levels is still double (at the time of wrinting the previous post had not checked yet) so ...

 

[kingfisher3210]

I will never ever play a counter trend trade. In this downtrend market, i have been playing and will play shorts till it bottoms out.

Friday uprise was an another opportunity to short at closing prices. Exact timing is very difficult, so i am playing shorts in far away series.

I am willing to face drawdown but will not face losses as my reading of market says we are in downtrend and eventually will break 5200 as we go down.

Now as we go down, 3rd time it can bounce from 5200 region like it did in 2004 when it bounced 3rd time when Nifty was in 1766-1780 region (major downtrend market till May 2004 when nifty went down from 2028 to 1258) but will i play long for a bounce back? No, Never !

The bounce back should be used to get fresh shorts in the system in a downtrend market like this one.

It is not the quantity of points, it is the quality of points. I prefer to watch, observe and built short positions in a bounce back rather then playing long on bounce back.

All shorts should be booked today. Definitely, it will bounce not because of some news or indicator but because of psychology- As prices go down, buyers are attracted.

It can bounce from this level or from 5100. Once it bounces back, i will start building the fresh shorts.

Eventually 4000 will come in about a years time.

 

[sudoku1]

N F trend DOWN


TGT > 4999