NIFTY 50 future TRENDS

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PGDIMES

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please stop this war of words... its of no use. we are here to help each other and not prove ourselves right. :)
Yeah... sure... I have nothing against you... only thing I tried to point out was... your statement... You were not the only one who was bearish in the forum after the RBI announcement... :)

pgdimes i am no options writer as u are..i am always long on options. but learning the game slowly.. :)
Don't write options in such a turbulent market (though many expecting the range to be in between 5000-5050 and 5250-5300 till expiry, looking at the OI figures. Some are also suggesting that VIX will come down very quickly in the next few days... my gut feel is VIX will shoot up more... so buying options and holding for a day or two max is the best strategy now)... I have seen few of my friends' fortune dry up after the election results i.e. on 18th May, 2009... The poor fellows wrote naked call options and/or short straddles/strangles... :eek:
 

starscream

Well-Known Member
Yeah... sure... I have nothing against you... only thing I tried to point out was... your statement... You were not the only one who was bearish in the forum after the RBI announcement... :)



Don't write options in such a turbulent market (though many expecting the range to be in between 5000-5050 and 5250-5300 till expiry, looking at the OI figures. Some are also suggesting that VIX will come down very quickly in the next few days... my gut feel is VIX will shoot up more... so buying options and holding for a day or two max is the best strategy now)... I have seen few of my friends' fortune dry up after the election results i.e. on 18th May, 2009... The poor fellows wrote naked call options and/or short straddles/strangles... :eek:
My god. I really feel frightened hearing such stories. thats why i still dont write options. I remember one such person, victor niederhoffer who lost in crash of 1997. 2nd biggest crash in history. and he had written naked options. he was wiped out. !!
Even i expect vix levels to touch around 30 before bottom picking can begin.
 

2021

Active Member
Yeah... sure... I have nothing against you... only thing I tried to point out was... your statement... You were not the only one who was bearish in the forum after the RBI announcement... :)



Don't write options in such a turbulent market (though many expecting the range to be in between 5000-5050 and 5250-5300 till expiry, looking at the OI figures. Some are also suggesting that VIX will come down very quickly in the next few days... my gut feel is VIX will shoot up more... so buying options and holding for a day or two max is the best strategy now)... I have seen few of my friends' fortune dry up after the election results i.e. on 18th May, 2009... The poor fellows wrote naked call options and/or short straddles/strangles... :eek:
I'm one of the millions who lost almost everything in less than 2 seconds.. I was heavily short on Nifty. Had only 1 lot call of 4500 june at 12 rs which gave 250 premium and was last money I had left and almost 25 lots of puts of May and June series from 3300 to 3800 levels bought at 50-170, all covered at 0.5 to 1-1.20. From time of Satyam to US slowdown to bad bank results, everything was going bad for market until that 18th of May came and ruined all dreams in few seconds.. Lost over 2 lacs in just few seconds and made mere 12500 on call. I'm happy I'm still not getting courage to write options. Otherwise I would had become bankrupt.

Coming back to current market when everyone in market is so bearish and when RBI's rate hike looks to end, inflation to come down which happens during every Rakhashabandha/Ganesh Chaturthi and since past taught me lesson that market always give shocks, I'm one for 5500 before expiry. Planning to buy some SBI and Reliance calls at dirt cheap price on tuesday (with hope tomorrow will be bloodbath and tuesday will be aftershocks of Dow and world market). I feel market may touch 5000 and bounce back and bounce way fast. For how long, not my guess.
 

starscream

Well-Known Member
I'm one of the millions who lost almost everything in less than 2 seconds.. I was heavily short on Nifty. Had only 1 lot call of 4500 june at 12 rs which gave 250 premium and was last money I had left and almost 25 lots of puts of May and June series from 3300 to 3800 levels bought at 50-170, all covered at 0.5 to 1-1.20. From time of Satyam to US slowdown to bad bank results, everything was going bad for market until that 18th of May came and ruined all dreams in few seconds.. Lost over 2 lacs in just few seconds and made mere 12500 on call. I'm happy I'm still not getting courage to write options. Otherwise I would had become bankrupt.

Coming back to current market when everyone in market is so bearish and when RBI's rate hike looks to end, inflation to come down which happens during every Rakhashabandha/Ganesh Chaturthi and since past taught me lesson that market always give shocks, I'm one for 5500 before expiry. Planning to buy some SBI and Reliance calls at dirt cheap price on tuesday (with hope tomorrow will be bloodbath and tuesday will be aftershocks of Dow and world market). I feel market may touch 5000 and bounce back and bounce way fast. For how long, not my guess.
the most important thing is how to survive later. whenever i have lost, i think of ppl like jesse livermore. the last time i lost heavily was when sensex tanked on japan quake. i was heavily long in futures, and like a fool in panic covered at -500 sensex points.
 

PGDIMES

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