NIFTY 50 future TRENDS

[sudoku1]

It's more of a psychology than TA or FA contribution in ups and downs. TA helps in knowing short term scenerio better and FA can tell you what lies a year or two from now. But both can get caught on wrong foot example Satyam, post election rally, subprime crises..

One of my maternal uncle married a Keralite lady. Recently I met aunt's father who shifted to Delhi after retirement and hardly speaks hindi. Now he is 62 and still keeps buying shares. He never looks at price, economy, inflation and he just buys few selective stocks. I asked about how much profit he might be having, old man replied "I don't know"! I asked my aunt and was shocked to know he might be having crores worth shares which he was buying from age of 30! A man who don't use any TA or FA is sitting on hundred times returns and we get happy on few reversals and spikes.

Waise sab moh maya hai. Kya leke aya tha jo leke jayega. Sab yahin reh jayega. Nifty bhale jaane ke baad 20000 pe chala jaye ya 2000 pe, tab kuch nahi milega.

But both can get caught on wrong foot example Satyam, post election rally, subprime crises

regarding TA ...SATYAM was already weak before d scam broke out on all parameters. before elections results also TECHNICALS of mkt were a screaming BUY..
http://www.traderji.com/position-trading/21819-sensex-technicals-168.html#post309620

http://www.traderji.com/position-trading/21819-sensex-technicals-169.html#post309872

 

[Taurus1]

Doesn't look like it's gonna break today, anyway shorted at 5120, with SL 5160 :!
9th/12th are wide range bars.

Hit my SL yesterday, went 10 points above and came back down.
Managed to get in today, not at yesterdays price but good enough. Now waiting for the WRB today and Monday.

 

[trade4joisar]

Hit my SL yesterday, went 10 points above and came back down.
Managed to get in today, not at yesterdays price but good enough. Now waiting for the WRB today and Monday.

What do you mean by WRB ??

 

[Taurus1]

wide range bars

 

[Taurus1]

No short covering at all. :!
Century for today. :yahoo:
Back to back century for Monday?

 

[sudoku1]

NF trend DOWN.....tgt 4666

 

[IAtma]

in longer TF........

4060-3131:rofl::rofl:

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: NIFTY 50 future TRENDS

SJD, you were one decimal off. It is 3418218.
The simplest way to do it is (For the benefit of others.) type in =(1.2^32)*10000 on your spreadsheet

It is a joke, so don't take it the wrong way. So he has crores at 62, if he had done some market timing, he would be Jhunjhunwala !!

The point is you can do equivalent to SIPs and make a lot of money. However, with some adjustments here and there ... and these need not be daily, you can make a whole lot more. I calculated that if he had just invested 10000 rupees 32 years back when he started (yes I know 10000 was a big amount of money then, but I am talking about just 1 time investment, not monthly), at the rate of 20% growth, he would have 341821 by now. And assuming he invested that much every year (incrementing for inflation and/or higher salary and income), it easily adds up to more than 1 CR.

Without going into numbers, I had some amount of equity during the dot com days. I am a passive investor so I just let it sit. I also did not act during the 2008 crash. As a result, my equity in 2011 is almost the same as what it was in 2001. Yes, I did not invest more, and if I had invested in SIPs, it could be a different number. However, the point is that whether you take corrective / rebalancing / asset allocation steps on a daily level (which is trading) or monthly or yearly levels, you can make an order of magnitude difference in the returns. And this is where FAs and TAs help.

I started actively learning (if you call 1-2 hours a day active learning) only this January after the market crash. As usual, I was blindsided as everyone was talking about Nifty going higher and higher. However, having done some learning (still nowhere near an expert), when I look at the ichimoku charts of Nifty at a monthly level, the price is so far from the cloud and the tenken/kijun pair, that I realize it was so obvious. Of course such extremes do not come every year, but .... the picture is there for anyone who cares to spend the time.

Long story short, I agree that slow and steady investments over a lifetime can give you way more than a nest egg. However, using some FA/TA on them can give the same nest egg to your kids and grandkids ;-)
[EDIT/ADD] I realize there is a lot of repetition. Apologize for that, but I will let the original comment stand and not revise it.

 

[4xpipcounter]

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In post # 2745, I posted the fact the projected peak at 5173 had been hit and to watch for a reversal form that point. The only concern I had was for fact the candle entered in at the side of the cloud and it would turn out to be the real deal then head to the top. As it turned out, the sharp reversal has begun.
Initial support to look for will be the kijun, which is also the daily tenken at 4941. If that level contains, it will only be temporary, as the market will be headed to my minimum corrective objective of 4843, which is the point the candle originally broke the TL.
I am also in total agreement that this market is headed to 4666 (A confluence of mine and Sudoku's methodology.), but I'm not convinced it is going to happen on this leg. I'm not convinced this leg is marking a return to the DOWN. It appears more that is could be a correction within the corrective leg itself, which means we can look for another reversal at 4843, it not lower, and then for an entry inside the cloud.
If the target of 4666 (There is a possibility 4592 could be hit.) is reached on this leg, then the reversal will lead to a break of the cloud on its way to the top.

In summary, there are some alternate views. What is on the radar is a move to S at 4941, which will be only temporary containment, and then a move to at least 4843.

 

[sanjosedesi]

Re: NIFTY 50 future TRENDS

SJD, you were one decimal off. It is 3418218.
The simplest way to do it is (For the benefit of others.) type in =(1.2^32)*10000 on your spreadsheet

Thanks Paul. BTW, when people talk of 1 CR or crore, it means 10 million. Lakh is 100K.

That makes my point even more relevant. What this uncle showed was a) a plan and b) sticking to the plan resulting in c) high yields. What I am adding is that this plan an be tinkered once in a while to provide even higher yields.