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2021, whatever line of expertise I have, it is in reading and interpreting charts. Even in making trading decisions, I have no regard to what market it is, what the rumors are, etc, etc. As an example, the EUR/USD had strong obiviations of a reversal, and so I went long and made 300 pip off it this week. The CHF/JPY was showing the predicted drop from the 108's was over for awhile, so I went long, and I ma now enjoying some nice gains on that position.
Earlier, I posted the 4-hour chart to show the open mouth of the stochastics, the fact it rose above the tenken and kijun, and it is in the middle of the cloud. The reason for the sudden halt in the DOWN was that the weekly became OS and hit an SD extreme. This was similar to the CHF/JPY, but not as obvious. This is all the while the monthly is showing a proclivity for another move south.
I posted the daily chart and it shows us a few things:
1. The candles ranged deeply under the daily cloud. This means a correction was due, even though a confluence would be needed to make a trading decision, and it also abetted my interests when I made the forecast of the reversal.
2. Anytime there is a strong move away from equilibrium (the cloud), then the cloud becomes a solid obstacle, in this cast solid R. This means the strong odds are it will contain.
3. The SD channel could not have been formed at a more appropriate place, and that is underlying the cloud. SD channels will contain small bull runs that are only corrections.
4. After the market recently became OB, it met only the minimum level for the move, which is the circa area of the tenken. If the bottom of the cloud gets hit, an additional confluence in this TF alone will be that it should be anticipated we will have a strong stochastics divergence. This is also what I mean when I have said so many times that activity on oscillators needs to be anticipated rather than acting on the move after it happens. This is how to maximize pips, ticks, points, or whatever. I'd rather take the position at 5301, then wait for a crossover after a strong move. I'm greedy. I want it all--lol.
5. The TL was drawn off the 4-hour chart. The corrective level after the break still has not been hit, which is 4840. That will be hit! Albeit, it will take a return to the DOWN in order for it to be hit.
You asked when. Do not take this to the bank, as I am better at seeing reversal levels rather than time reversals. I would say in about 8 days.
The ichimoku cloud helps us in that determination. Each stripe in the cloud represents one day. Notice current level with respect to the cloud. That is 8 stripes over from the current level. When you see the future projection level with the cloud, then you know you are getting close.
To sum it up. The confluence at 5240 is the minimum expectation, unless something totally bizarre happens. 5301 is containment. In other words, only an intraday spike is getting on the other side of it. Minimum expectation on the downside is 4840, and most likely 4666 (Just coincidence that level belongs to Sudoku and me.), and possibly 4592, which would mark a decision point.
This is JMO. Poor players, rich players, big players, small players: They are all talking points and fancy cliches. The charts still tell the story, not who's in the game.
Here's my favorite talking point: It is up or down. Your methodology needs to discern which way the market will go, then jump in for the ride.
That's worked for me!!
Whenever dollar index breaks 80 mark the conolidation period will end. The short term boom is due to dollar getting strong worldwide. 80-81 is it's breating zone. Safe havens already getting cracks. Equity shall follow sooner if not later. Paul, you are an expert of forex so you must be knowing way better than anyone else how fast and how deep next correction would be. But million dollar question is when? In my guess not before trapping poor small players who always buy high and sell low.