NIFTY 50 future TRENDS

[RSI]

Sudoku is always so pessimistic You want some hope, you will find a chart which agrees with you. Here's today's mini-nifty chart showing a bullish pinbar for tomorrow.

A simple explanation for today's bar would be like this (I have not gone through intraday chart. Comments are solely basing upon your posted chart)

1. Price has been falling and today price opened with a huge gap.

2. Price rallied heavily. But bulls could not sustain the upmove.

3. Price came back where it opened.

4. By the end of the day, it closed near the open.

5. Close was in the lower 1/3 of the day's bar.

6. Overall interpretation of today's bar would be that bulls have not received any support and bears seized this opportunity and by the end of the day bears pushed the price down.

7. BTW, pinbars indicate the possible move in the reverse direction where it is poking.

Hope this helps

I guess today's chart qualifies as bullish pinbar.. the bears tried to take it down but could not sustain.

The problem is that a) someone remarked here that the candlestick patterns have to be confirmed by the next candle, b) an earlier similar setup occured on 18th November, and the next day was heavily bearish

I am confused with your definition of "pinbar". Also, every pinbar will not be effective. Pinbars will be effective in the support/resistance zones. Donot forget to include volume while interpreting pinbars.

These are not usual markets. They are heavily manipulated and news driven. Even the so called news is also fake. Any forecast/anticipation under these conditions is fruaght with heavy risk. Market can move or be moved heavily on either direction when the volume is low.

It becomes a challenge to trade when what one expects does not happen quickly. Usual expectation of a pinbar at resistance zone (i.e. having long upper wick and small body at the bottom 1/3 of the bar) gives an expectation of halt in upmovement and perhaps begining of downmovement or at least a sideways movement. But if it goes up for next four or five days breaking the high of the pinbar comfortably, it will be challenging to trade and many stoplosses will be triggered. Then if the downmove comes and comes quickly and heavily breaking all supports (even the support zones far below the pinbar), it will be a hell of an experience. Beware, this is what can happen in a low volume market. It is not the accuracy of the forecast nor the pride of getting the forecast correct nor the agony/shame of getting the forecast that goes wrong that matters. It is how one trades and survives in these challenging market conditions that becomes important.

Hope this helps
R. S. Iyer

 

[sudoku1]

This post should be added to post #5.

nt posible..no EDIT buton 2 post # 5

 

[manoharpillai]

R1 5156.67
midpoint 5059.00 >>>
PP 4961.33..................REF. my weekly levels... posted at page 469. Nifty struggle to go above the 1st Mid point 5059 i expect nifty to make some corrective move.... watch out for the support at Pivot point 4961 which is very crucial for nifty to maintain this up trend..... break this level will bring in more weakness

 

[timepass]

Aiyerbhai, rest assured, my posts are not an attempt at predicting/ forecasting the market. My meager knowledge of pinbar setup is restricted to a cursory glance at the pinbar thread here on TJ, and my own understand and interpretation of the same. I am very much a newbie and have simply posted my observations. You must've noticed the "topsy turvy" comment in my post. That illustrates my understanding of the market conditions So, I get to learn from all your comments.

I am confused with your definition of "pinbar". Also, every pinbar will not be effective. Pinbars will be effective in the support/resistance zones. Donot forget to include volume while interpreting pinbars.

These are not usual markets. They are heavily manipulated and news driven. Even the so called news is also fake. Any forecast/anticipation under these conditions is fruaght with heavy risk. Market can move or be moved heavily on either direction when the volume is low.

It becomes a challenge to trade when what one expects does not happen quickly. Usual expectation of a pinbar at resistance zone (i.e. having long upper wick and small body at the bottom 1/3 of the bar) gives an expectation of halt in upmovement and perhaps begining of downmovement or at least a sideways movement. But if it goes up for next four or five days breaking the high of the pinbar comfortably, it will be challenging to trade and many stoplosses will be triggered. Then if the downmove comes and comes quickly and heavily breaking all supports (even the support zones far below the pinbar), it will be a hell of an experience. Beware, this is what can happen in a low volume market.

It is not the accuracy of the forecast nor the pride of getting the forecast correct nor the agony/shame of getting the forecast that goes wrong that matters. It is how one trades and survives in these challenging market conditions that becomes important.

Hope this helps
R. S. Iyer

Sigh .. you hit the nail on the head with that one.

 

[4xpipcounter]

RSI, your acronym is perfect in a trader's world:
Relative Strength Index

I am confused with your definition of "pinbar". Also, every pinbar will not be effective. Pinbars will be effective in the support/resistance zones. Donot forget to include volume while interpreting pinbars.

These are not usual markets. They are heavily manipulated and news driven. Even the so called news is also fake. Any forecast/anticipation under these conditions is fruaght with heavy risk. Market can move or be moved heavily on either direction when the volume is low.

It becomes a challenge to trade when what one expects does not happen quickly. Usual expectation of a pinbar at resistance zone (i.e. having long upper wick and small body at the bottom 1/3 of the bar) gives an expectation of halt in upmovement and perhaps begining of downmovement or at least a sideways movement. But if it goes up for next four or five days breaking the high of the pinbar comfortably, it will be challenging to trade and many stoplosses will be triggered. Then if the downmove comes and comes quickly and heavily breaking all supports (even the support zones far below the pinbar), it will be a hell of an experience. Beware, this is what can happen in a low volume market. It is not the accuracy of the forecast nor the pride of getting the forecast correct nor the agony/shame of getting the forecast that goes wrong that matters. It is how one trades and survives in these challenging market conditions that becomes important.

Hope this helps
R. S. Iyer

 

[trade4joisar]

I was checking NF with Fibonacci retracement & found that today NF was not able to hold above 61.8%, Is this how Fibonacci works ?

I am not very much familiar with Fibonacci & used default settings i.e. 50,0

 

[sudoku1]

The market is never wrong in what it does; it just is. Therefore, you as an individual trader interacting with the marketfirst as an observer to perceive opportunity, then as a participant executing a trade, contributing to the overall market behaviorhave to confront an environment where only you can be wrong

 

[4xpipcounter]

T4J, that is exactly how it works. Elliot Wave people are big on Fibos. It is generally acknowledged that 61.8 is the ultimate correction.
I know they use a theory that says when the bounce is off that point, then that return leg will be the length of the previous. The previous leg dropped from 5399 to 4630--769 points. The peak, thus far, is 5131. Subtract 769 from that, and we're left with 4362. A look at my personal methodology and that number does fit in rather nicely.
I am not a Fibonacci pro, but I do use them in conjunction with my S&R's. As long as the 38.2% level between reference points holds, then the direction in the opposite direction hold. Within the scope of my S&R's, I have many uses for Fibonacci, but not in the traditional sense, as per our conversation.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Sudoku, that's profound and very true.

The market is never wrong in what it does; it just is. Therefore, you as an individual trader interacting with the marketfirst as an observer to perceive opportunity, then as a participant executing a trade, contributing to the overall market behaviorhave to confront an environment where only you can be wrong

 

[LivetoTrade]

T4J, that is exactly how it works. Elliot Wave people are big on Fibos. It is generally acknowledged that 61.8 is the ultimate correction.
I know they use a theory that says when the bounce is off that point, then that return leg will be the length of the previous. The previous leg dropped from 5399 to 4630--769 points. The peak, thus far, is 5131. Subtract 769 from that, and we're left with 4362. A look at my personal methodology and that number does fit in rather nicely.
I am not a Fibonacci pro, but I do use them in conjunction with my S&R's. As long as the 38.2% level between reference points holds, then the direction in the opposite direction hold. Within the scope of my S&R's, I have many uses for Fibonacci, but not in the traditional sense, as per our conversation.

When you calculate Fib levels, do you do candle beginning to candle end, or do you include the wick length too?

Sometimes you disregard the wick calling it only an intraday spike, hence this question.