NIFTY 50 future TRENDS
- Thread starter sudoku1
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There's been some talk in the recent 3 pages<> of the lack of range the market displayed. There is always a technical and mathematical answer for that.
Monday's open was 5052. The containment area was 5153. I said in a previous post that we could even allow for a pike up to the WR1 at 5182, but it did not make it there, as the cluster area prevailed, even holding back any idea of a spike. It took Monday and Wednesday to finish off a range from open to containment of 101 points, which is 50.5 per day. The UP gave out, which was highly predictable, and now we have a candle that appears 2 miles long by comparison to the rest. Someone mentioned some FA data in support of upcoming strong bearish candles. This is only the beginning of the new DOWN and we have a clear shot at the 4500's. The long bearish candle that will be seen in coming days is also predictable.
There is going to be some ST S from 4905 to 4880. OTT, there is none.
That's the technical part. Now let's get to the mathematical part:
Here's some statistics which comprise the last 52 weeks:
Average range: 89
Minimum range: 29
Maximum range: 218
Median: 81
Monday's range: 63
Wednesday's range: 74
Standard deviation of the range: 38.5 (Add or subtract it from the range and you get the deviation from the average range.)
The median is half the ranges before over that number and half being under. Monday and Wednesday was normal market behavior when a trend nears exhaustion.
If we take the 38.5 and add it to the 89, we get 127.5, which is the +1 sigma data value. Just to get to the chase, add another 38.5 to that, and we get 166, and there is a 5% chance of the range exceeding.
Sigma 1 and 2 are exceeded during extreme market conditions. That is what happened on Thursday, and what will happen again over coming days.
I enjoy this stuff. It adds statistical, factual evidence to the markets' behavior. What is really says is that over coming days we can look forward to more bear candles that have a high-low range of at least 127 points.
When the smaller TF's start getting exhausted, then people will start talking about the low daily ranges.
It's amazing! You can take all this stuff and even predict when people are going to start talking about certain issues.
Monday's open was 5052. The containment area was 5153. I said in a previous post that we could even allow for a pike up to the WR1 at 5182, but it did not make it there, as the cluster area prevailed, even holding back any idea of a spike. It took Monday and Wednesday to finish off a range from open to containment of 101 points, which is 50.5 per day. The UP gave out, which was highly predictable, and now we have a candle that appears 2 miles long by comparison to the rest. Someone mentioned some FA data in support of upcoming strong bearish candles. This is only the beginning of the new DOWN and we have a clear shot at the 4500's. The long bearish candle that will be seen in coming days is also predictable.
There is going to be some ST S from 4905 to 4880. OTT, there is none.
That's the technical part. Now let's get to the mathematical part:
Here's some statistics which comprise the last 52 weeks:
Average range: 89
Minimum range: 29
Maximum range: 218
Median: 81
Monday's range: 63
Wednesday's range: 74
Standard deviation of the range: 38.5 (Add or subtract it from the range and you get the deviation from the average range.)
The median is half the ranges before over that number and half being under. Monday and Wednesday was normal market behavior when a trend nears exhaustion.
If we take the 38.5 and add it to the 89, we get 127.5, which is the +1 sigma data value. Just to get to the chase, add another 38.5 to that, and we get 166, and there is a 5% chance of the range exceeding.
Sigma 1 and 2 are exceeded during extreme market conditions. That is what happened on Thursday, and what will happen again over coming days.
I enjoy this stuff. It adds statistical, factual evidence to the markets' behavior. What is really says is that over coming days we can look forward to more bear candles that have a high-low range of at least 127 points.
When the smaller TF's start getting exhausted, then people will start talking about the low daily ranges.
It's amazing! You can take all this stuff and even predict when people are going to start talking about certain issues.
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Timepass, that is part of the story. This is the weekly. There are no stop lights heading south, except at circa 4414.
BTW, don't be mad. Just go short and collect your points--lol.
Grrrrrrrrrr.......
Early days yet...I mean, it's too early to call
Anyway, what happens when Kijun crosses Tenkan from top ??
Early days yet...I mean, it's too early to call
Anyway, what happens when Kijun crosses Tenkan from top ??
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The DOWN blue was drawn from the daily. If that was broken, then we would have headed to at least 5295. That contained, as expected, and so it is now headed to the black UP, which was drawn from the 4-hour. That is a cluster intraday support, but once it is broken, then we have another +1 sigma day as per my previous post.
After it is broken, then it goes east and we have some sub-89 range days. The TL get will get fully corrected, and then it's full speed ahead for some more southern comfort.
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I am letting Santa have his way. He has to travel south from the North Pole. :lol:
Don't count on that 9,3,4 panning out for you. The value line has not even crossed the signal line. Once the new dip has been made that takes care of the possibility.
Actually if you do enough stochastic settings, you could probably create a legitimate divergence somewhere.
Now, Timepass, if you really don't believe Santa is traveling south 17 days from now, then go long Nifty. LOL, time will pass with every tick against you.
OTOH, Pips has been wrong before.
Don't count on that 9,3,4 panning out for you. The value line has not even crossed the signal line. Once the new dip has been made that takes care of the possibility.
Actually if you do enough stochastic settings, you could probably create a legitimate divergence somewhere.
Now, Timepass, if you really don't believe Santa is traveling south 17 days from now, then go long Nifty. LOL, time will pass with every tick against you.
OTOH, Pips has been wrong before.
Pips, bless you for 9,3,4. A bullish divergence is seen therein
And as I said earlier about the downmove, early days yet...I mean, it's too early to call. Let Santa have his way first, willya ?
Abt the weekly, plot the RSI too.
And as I said earlier about the downmove, early days yet...I mean, it's too early to call. Let Santa have his way first, willya ?
Abt the weekly, plot the RSI too.
Hmmmmmm.........
The Eurozone event is a non starter, status quo will be maintained.
Just a good chance for the institutions to jack up option premiums. :eat:
Still one more upleg on the way and chance for bullz to touch the 200 EMA again, for a goodbye kiss.
The Eurozone event is a non starter, status quo will be maintained.
Just a good chance for the institutions to jack up option premiums. :eat:
Still one more upleg on the way and chance for bullz to touch the 200 EMA again, for a goodbye kiss.
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Do you want to bet against that? I don't.
After the trend was confirmed, it has been trouble staying above 50, as it is pointed towards 30 again.
Let's see. TL containment, TK about to cross, RSI obviations, Santa heading south. There's your confluence!
Pips, bless you for 9,3,4. A bullish divergence is seen therein
And as I said earlier about the downmove, early days yet...I mean, it's too early to call. Let Santa have his way first, willya ?
Abt the weekly, plot the RSI too.
And as I said earlier about the downmove, early days yet...I mean, it's too early to call. Let Santa have his way first, willya ?
Abt the weekly, plot the RSI too.
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