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Well,well!! It looks like I missed some action while my charts were down....But then, not really.
I got to rewind the clock slightly, because it has been awhile since I looked at a live Nifty chart. The red horizontal line is the WR1 from 2 weeks ago. I said if it is so much as touched, then we get a strong move to the YR1 at 5552 (golden rod line). I also said the 4-hour TL (not pictured) contains, and it did.
Now, the flip side, and then I'll tell you where all this is leading to. During this rise, I was expecting it to be corrective only, and so on 2 different occasions I missed the reversal point. Those were major key R events, and all this leads to what is about to happen just around the corner
Hitting the YR2 in almost a straight line this early in the year is unprecedented. It tells me 2 things. The market is now at an extreme reading. The 1,000-point high-low move in 2 weeks for this market is an outlier. The daily altimeter says the market is in ear-popping territory. The weekly is OB, and the daily is grossly OB. It all points to the fact it is time for a reversal.
The 4-hour TL is now at 5426. Just pretend it is not there, because that's the way the reversal is going to treat it. A support area is going to be seen at 5276, and that level is as good as on the radar. A choppy move further south could ensue towards 5089.
Unless this reversal is highly volatile, then the DOWN is toast. Considering exceptions to the rule can never be depended on, 5089 should be viewed as containment. With the strong impulsive move that started the year, the precedent has been set for the year. This is a complete reversal of what my view for the year says, but 5950 should be hit this year.
Yes, yes, how many times do we talk about the necessity of adjusting your views in lieu of the markets? I've even been reading Sudoku's reversal of fortunes.
Regardless, at least this week should begin the temporary descent.