Nifty (5,333.5)
The Nifty declined to the intra-week low of 5,171.5 before closing 26 points lower. The index breached the key support at 5,231 briefly but managed a close above it.
In the near-term, the Nifty can move higher to 5,346 or 5,454 if the pre-budget excitement continues. Traders can initiate fresh short positions on reversal from either of these levels. Downward targets will be 5,171, 4,995 and 4,950.
Signposts for the Budget-day
Budget is one of the market moving events that can affect the medium-term trend in the index. If the Finance Minister makes dire pronouncements that give market a jolt, the index can collapse to 16,430 after the Budget.
This is the medium-term trend deciding level. Investors can stay sanguine as long as this level holds. But the floodgates of selling will open if the index breaches this level.
There will then be the possibility of decline to 15,358 or 15,135 in the period after the Budget.
The key medium-term support for the Nifty is 4,950.
We will have to assume that the long-term trend has resumed only if this level breaks. Subsequent targets would be 4,695 and 4,588.
What if the Finance Minister removes STT or gives some other surprise bonanza to investors?
In such a scenario, the Sensex can shoot higher to the recent high at 18,523. Target on break above this level are 18,826 and 19,093.
First target for the Nifty on a euphoric reaction to the Budget is the previous peak at 5,630. Targets on break above this level are 5,647 and 5,850.
THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Nifty declined to the intra-week low of 5,171.5 before closing 26 points lower. The index breached the key support at 5,231 briefly but managed a close above it.
In the near-term, the Nifty can move higher to 5,346 or 5,454 if the pre-budget excitement continues. Traders can initiate fresh short positions on reversal from either of these levels. Downward targets will be 5,171, 4,995 and 4,950.
Signposts for the Budget-day
Budget is one of the market moving events that can affect the medium-term trend in the index. If the Finance Minister makes dire pronouncements that give market a jolt, the index can collapse to 16,430 after the Budget.
This is the medium-term trend deciding level. Investors can stay sanguine as long as this level holds. But the floodgates of selling will open if the index breaches this level.
There will then be the possibility of decline to 15,358 or 15,135 in the period after the Budget.
The key medium-term support for the Nifty is 4,950.
We will have to assume that the long-term trend has resumed only if this level breaks. Subsequent targets would be 4,695 and 4,588.
What if the Finance Minister removes STT or gives some other surprise bonanza to investors?
In such a scenario, the Sensex can shoot higher to the recent high at 18,523. Target on break above this level are 18,826 and 19,093.
First target for the Nifty on a euphoric reaction to the Budget is the previous peak at 5,630. Targets on break above this level are 5,647 and 5,850.
THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
