Medium-term trend in the Nifty (5,317.9) too is up since the trough formed at 4,531. The index needs to record a strong close below 5,200 to signal that the medium-term viewcan deteriorate and the index can slide lower to 5,080 or 4,950.
If the index manages to hold above 5,200, it will mean that the second wave from December trough is in motion with the possibility of the third wave breaking higher to 5,850 in the months ahead.
Our medium-term view will turn negative only if the index goes on to close below 4,950.
Long-term trend in the Nifty is sideways. The correction from 6,335 peak halted after the index had retraced 47 per cent of the previous long-term uptrend.
It is possible that a long-term bottom was formed at this level. However rallies will face resistance around 5,650.
Inability to move beyond this level will result in the index moving in a wide trading band between 4,500 and 5,630 in the months ahead.
The Nifty halted Friday's slide at short-term support at 5,296.
It is possible that the index reverses higher from here to move on to 5,508 or 5,634.
Fresh short positions can be initiated if the index moves below 5,295. Subsequent targets are 5,216 and then 5,041.
THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE 18TH MAR. 2012