NIFTY 50 future TRENDS
- Thread starter sudoku1
- Start date
- Status
E1 - please explain.
At this time, there are many many negative factors affecting the markets. However, India has underperformed the world over last 2 months because of Pranav da. More than the GAAR laws (which is good IMO), it is the flip flop which makes investors (FIIs) nervous. You need a stable policy, not a witch hunt. Just because someone is asking questions about Bofors (or 3G or NREGA or ...), you can not create a bigger problem which is what Pranav da seems to be doing.
There is expected to be a clarification about GAAR on Monday which will set the tone for Indian markets. Yes it may very well move down after that, but there is equal chance of 5100-5000 forming a base or a spike up.
What's your expectation, in technical or funda or any other terms, which makes you say what you said?
[EDIT/ADD] Just in case it is not clear, this question is not about past price action, but about projecting that to Monday ...
At this time, there are many many negative factors affecting the markets. However, India has underperformed the world over last 2 months because of Pranav da. More than the GAAR laws (which is good IMO), it is the flip flop which makes investors (FIIs) nervous. You need a stable policy, not a witch hunt. Just because someone is asking questions about Bofors (or 3G or NREGA or ...), you can not create a bigger problem which is what Pranav da seems to be doing.
There is expected to be a clarification about GAAR on Monday which will set the tone for Indian markets. Yes it may very well move down after that, but there is equal chance of 5100-5000 forming a base or a spike up.
What's your expectation, in technical or funda or any other terms, which makes you say what you said?
[EDIT/ADD] Just in case it is not clear, this question is not about past price action, but about projecting that to Monday ...
Start here http://www.traderji.com/members/saint.html
Click on "threads started". 7 year old lessons still applicable.
Click on "threads started". 7 year old lessons still applicable.
Yes, you are right, SJD. Markets responds more readily to political upheavels, news and rumours than economic performances - except perhaps during quarterly results! 
SJD, why I said what I said is my personal inference after going through all that transpired in indian stock market in the past few years. It is not that I am a doomsayer or it is an ego play to prove anything to myself or others. It is more like a bit of scientific experiment sort of to see whether my hypothesis gets validated by the markets or not. Pure curiousity at this point in time.
You raised many different issuse in your post, So here, I would attempt to braid a couple of them in one single thought. I hope you would be able to make sense out of it as to what's going on from my point of view. If not, I ask for your indulgence anyway.
You see, for whatever reason if one's vision doesn't exceed one's nosetip, then GAAR is a partypooper kind of thing. And such a 'visionary' should stick to intraday trading. Cause that is the only kind of trading that wouldn't require any effort of structured thinking: just follow the next sheep's rear and you are home free...or in a ditch. But never ever in some kind of Gordon Gekko's office, puffing at 50 dollar Havana. Gordon Gekkos are the cream of the trading world, who have first-rate thinking brains. (So there...now, as a bonus, you also know my recent, personally derived reason as to why daytrading is so popular the world over! :rofl
Anyway, coming back to topic. In the long term, however, GAAR is an absolute necessity ( Yes, you are absolutely right in your opinion). I mean, India is not Cayman islands or a casino in Las Vegas! However, trouble with GAAR is the usual trouble that aflicts India. It is too little too late. Now the tiger has become maneater, and they are thinking to train it back to be a deerhunter. No, it won't do. Worse, GAAR may do the exact opposite of what the F-ers in delhi think it would! They should have had something like this in place the moment FII and their tattoos, MFs, were making this market their playground. But that time collectively we all were licking their toes, as they were the ones who got us busy counting zeros of Sensex and dreaming of becoming an economic powerhouse. In fact, too busy to bother to know that it's all smoke and mirror show by these big players; that India Inc. that time wasn't worth one-tenth of what's being traded/projected. And now, typically, the price for that extravagance is being paid by the ones who had least to do with it. Big guns need to artificially pump money to have rallies to trap the proverbial Bigger Fools who normally are recent entrants. Because no old-hand, intelligent individual long-term investor in his right mind is ready to buy stocks so as to create natural ebb and flow of supply and demand. And without that there won't be any stability or benchmark or any trustworthy S & R. In other words, our market will more than often follow the 2nd law of Thermodynamics and have natural bias toward sideways followed by downtrends - till it bites the dust at around 4 years old grounds and comes to its senses.
I don't give a damn to what those TA/FA monkeys in suits yappy-yap all day long on channels or on this and that site. I only know this: that the above, to me in subjective terms, seems logically factual. If it is really so, then it will play out in objective reality sooner or later. Until then, Parnab da and other nincompoops are talking through the hats. F- them. They can't wish away reality by being intellectuals. By doing so, they may prolong the pain, but eventually they will be forced to accept the natural order of the things. So would those dimwits in Europe!
SJD, why I said what I said is my personal inference after going through all that transpired in indian stock market in the past few years. It is not that I am a doomsayer or it is an ego play to prove anything to myself or others. It is more like a bit of scientific experiment sort of to see whether my hypothesis gets validated by the markets or not. Pure curiousity at this point in time.
You raised many different issuse in your post, So here, I would attempt to braid a couple of them in one single thought. I hope you would be able to make sense out of it as to what's going on from my point of view. If not, I ask for your indulgence anyway.
You see, for whatever reason if one's vision doesn't exceed one's nosetip, then GAAR is a partypooper kind of thing. And such a 'visionary' should stick to intraday trading. Cause that is the only kind of trading that wouldn't require any effort of structured thinking: just follow the next sheep's rear and you are home free...or in a ditch. But never ever in some kind of Gordon Gekko's office, puffing at 50 dollar Havana. Gordon Gekkos are the cream of the trading world, who have first-rate thinking brains. (So there...now, as a bonus, you also know my recent, personally derived reason as to why daytrading is so popular the world over!
:roflAnyway, coming back to topic. In the long term, however, GAAR is an absolute necessity ( Yes, you are absolutely right in your opinion). I mean, India is not Cayman islands or a casino in Las Vegas! However, trouble with GAAR is the usual trouble that aflicts India. It is too little too late. Now the tiger has become maneater, and they are thinking to train it back to be a deerhunter. No, it won't do. Worse, GAAR may do the exact opposite of what the F-ers in delhi think it would! They should have had something like this in place the moment FII and their tattoos, MFs, were making this market their playground. But that time collectively we all were licking their toes, as they were the ones who got us busy counting zeros of Sensex and dreaming of becoming an economic powerhouse. In fact, too busy to bother to know that it's all smoke and mirror show by these big players; that India Inc. that time wasn't worth one-tenth of what's being traded/projected. And now, typically, the price for that extravagance is being paid by the ones who had least to do with it. Big guns need to artificially pump money to have rallies to trap the proverbial Bigger Fools who normally are recent entrants. Because no old-hand, intelligent individual long-term investor in his right mind is ready to buy stocks so as to create natural ebb and flow of supply and demand. And without that there won't be any stability or benchmark or any trustworthy S & R. In other words, our market will more than often follow the 2nd law of Thermodynamics and have natural bias toward sideways followed by downtrends - till it bites the dust at around 4 years old grounds and comes to its senses.
I don't give a damn to what those TA/FA monkeys in suits yappy-yap all day long on channels or on this and that site. I only know this: that the above, to me in subjective terms, seems logically factual. If it is really so, then it will play out in objective reality sooner or later. Until then, Parnab da and other nincompoops are talking through the hats. F- them. They can't wish away reality by being intellectuals. By doing so, they may prolong the pain, but eventually they will be forced to accept the natural order of the things. So would those dimwits in Europe!
Yes, you are right, SJD. Markets responds more readily to political upheavels, news and rumours than economic performances - except perhaps during quarterly results!
SJD, why I said what I said is my personal inference after going through all that transpired in indian stock market in the past few years. It is not that I am a doomsayer or it is an ego play to prove anything to myself or others. It is more like a bit of scientific experiment sort of to see whether my hypothesis gets validated by the markets or not. Pure curiousity at this point in time.
You raised many different issuse in your post, So here, I would attempt to braid a couple of them in one single thought. I hope you would be able to make sense out of it as to what's going on from my point of view. If not, I ask for your indulgence anyway.
You see, for whatever reason if one's vision doesn't exceed one's nosetip, then GAAR is a partypooper kind of thing. And such a 'visionary' should stick to intraday trading. Cause that is the only kind of trading that wouldn't require any effort of structured thinking: just follow the next sheep's rear and you are home free...or in a ditch. But never ever in some kind of Gordon Gekko's office, puffing at 50 dollar Havana. Gordon Gekkos are the cream of the trading world, who have first-rate thinking brains. (So there...now, as a bonus, you also know my recent, personally derived reason as to why daytrading is so popular the world over! :rofl
Anyway, coming back to topic. In the long term, however, GAAR is an absolute necessity ( Yes, you are absolutely right in your opinion). I mean, India is not Cayman islands or a casino in Las Vegas! However, trouble with GAAR is the usual trouble that aflicts India. It is too little too late. Now the tiger has become maneater, and they are thinking to train it back to be a deerhunter. No, it won't do. Worse, GAAR may do the exact opposite of what the F-ers in delhi think it would! They should have had something like this in place the moment FII and their tattoos, MFs, were making this market their playground. But that time collectively we all were licking their toes, as they were the ones who got us busy counting zeros of Sensex and dreaming of becoming an economic powerhouse. In fact, too busy to bother to know that it's all smoke and mirror show by these big players; that India Inc. that time wasn't worth one-tenth of what's being traded/projected. And now, typically, the price for that extravagance is being paid by the ones who had least to do with it. Big guns need to artificially pump money to have rallies to trap the proverbial Bigger Fools who normally are recent entrants. Because no old-hand, intelligent individual long-term investor in his right mind is ready to buy stocks so as to create natural ebb and flow of supply and demand. And without that there won't be any stability or benchmark or any trustworthy S & R. In other words, our market will more than often follow the 2nd law of Thermodynamics and have natural bias toward sideways followed by downtrends - till it bites the dust at around 4 years old grounds and comes to its senses.
I don't give a damn to what those TA/FA monkeys in suits yappy-yap all day long on channels or on this and that site. I only know this: that the above, to me in subjective terms, seems logically factual. If it is really so, then it will play out in objective reality sooner or later. Until then, Parnab da and other nincompoops are talking through the hats. F- them. They can't wish away reality by being intellectuals. By doing so, they may prolong the pain, but eventually they will be forced to accept the natural order of the things. So would those dimwits in Europe!
SJD, why I said what I said is my personal inference after going through all that transpired in indian stock market in the past few years. It is not that I am a doomsayer or it is an ego play to prove anything to myself or others. It is more like a bit of scientific experiment sort of to see whether my hypothesis gets validated by the markets or not. Pure curiousity at this point in time.
You raised many different issuse in your post, So here, I would attempt to braid a couple of them in one single thought. I hope you would be able to make sense out of it as to what's going on from my point of view. If not, I ask for your indulgence anyway.
You see, for whatever reason if one's vision doesn't exceed one's nosetip, then GAAR is a partypooper kind of thing. And such a 'visionary' should stick to intraday trading. Cause that is the only kind of trading that wouldn't require any effort of structured thinking: just follow the next sheep's rear and you are home free...or in a ditch. But never ever in some kind of Gordon Gekko's office, puffing at 50 dollar Havana. Gordon Gekkos are the cream of the trading world, who have first-rate thinking brains. (So there...now, as a bonus, you also know my recent, personally derived reason as to why daytrading is so popular the world over!
:roflAnyway, coming back to topic. In the long term, however, GAAR is an absolute necessity ( Yes, you are absolutely right in your opinion). I mean, India is not Cayman islands or a casino in Las Vegas! However, trouble with GAAR is the usual trouble that aflicts India. It is too little too late. Now the tiger has become maneater, and they are thinking to train it back to be a deerhunter. No, it won't do. Worse, GAAR may do the exact opposite of what the F-ers in delhi think it would! They should have had something like this in place the moment FII and their tattoos, MFs, were making this market their playground. But that time collectively we all were licking their toes, as they were the ones who got us busy counting zeros of Sensex and dreaming of becoming an economic powerhouse. In fact, too busy to bother to know that it's all smoke and mirror show by these big players; that India Inc. that time wasn't worth one-tenth of what's being traded/projected. And now, typically, the price for that extravagance is being paid by the ones who had least to do with it. Big guns need to artificially pump money to have rallies to trap the proverbial Bigger Fools who normally are recent entrants. Because no old-hand, intelligent individual long-term investor in his right mind is ready to buy stocks so as to create natural ebb and flow of supply and demand. And without that there won't be any stability or benchmark or any trustworthy S & R. In other words, our market will more than often follow the 2nd law of Thermodynamics and have natural bias toward sideways followed by downtrends - till it bites the dust at around 4 years old grounds and comes to its senses.
I don't give a damn to what those TA/FA monkeys in suits yappy-yap all day long on channels or on this and that site. I only know this: that the above, to me in subjective terms, seems logically factual. If it is really so, then it will play out in objective reality sooner or later. Until then, Parnab da and other nincompoops are talking through the hats. F- them. They can't wish away reality by being intellectuals. By doing so, they may prolong the pain, but eventually they will be forced to accept the natural order of the things. So would those dimwits in Europe!
I know what you are saying, and I am not saying this for the immediate future, but I disagree.
We are in the midst of a structural / tectonic change in global economies, and of course the "Haves" will try to keep the "have nots" down. So from that aspect I can not say what will happen. The second unknown is how this whole US/Euro debt thing is going to turn out. The third unknown is short term and is our desi politics (inaction and panic decisions). Now after putting these to the side for now (a very big gap I know), the fact is that in a percentage term we are going to grow better than most of the world. Our base is/was so small that you can not avoid it. Looking at a long term picture, even if we do 6% growth and the world does 4% and the big guys do 2%, we provide them such a big opportunity which they can not ignore. Even after taxation, they will come out ahead. And are China and Brazil allowing them to play their market with no tax? ... I do not know, but I guess not. Eventually, the FIIs must be tamed, and they will be tamed. They will still influence things by bribing(lobbying) and at an individual politician level, but their power as a systemic threat to the country itself should slowly erode (their power as a systemic threat to the globe being a different risk, which we will share). Eventually, our ambani brothers or our next generation of cut-throats will eat them for lunch, if not today, then tomorrow. Net result, India may not sparkle like diamonds, but just shine like gold or appreciate like silver, but that will be better than where we are now.
But Monday ... I forgot about the French election ... let's see.
We are in the midst of a structural / tectonic change in global economies, and of course the "Haves" will try to keep the "have nots" down. So from that aspect I can not say what will happen. The second unknown is how this whole US/Euro debt thing is going to turn out. The third unknown is short term and is our desi politics (inaction and panic decisions). Now after putting these to the side for now (a very big gap I know), the fact is that in a percentage term we are going to grow better than most of the world. Our base is/was so small that you can not avoid it. Looking at a long term picture, even if we do 6% growth and the world does 4% and the big guys do 2%, we provide them such a big opportunity which they can not ignore. Even after taxation, they will come out ahead. And are China and Brazil allowing them to play their market with no tax? ... I do not know, but I guess not. Eventually, the FIIs must be tamed, and they will be tamed. They will still influence things by bribing(lobbying) and at an individual politician level, but their power as a systemic threat to the country itself should slowly erode (their power as a systemic threat to the globe being a different risk, which we will share). Eventually, our ambani brothers or our next generation of cut-throats will eat them for lunch, if not today, then tomorrow. Net result, India may not sparkle like diamonds, but just shine like gold or appreciate like silver, but that will be better than where we are now.
But Monday ... I forgot about the French election ... let's see.
I understand where you are coming from. If it is just a intellectual pusrsuit to find a common thread running through all this myriad things running concurrently on world screen, then I am afraid I could be up all night long and still in the morning I would feel like a dog chasing his own tail!
However, as a trader, I will say only this: that the effects of all the above that you preceive will co-relate accordingly only to what trading perspective one is talking from. That is, if one sees the market through day trader's eyes, the change of scenery on the screen would be too fast to keep a tab on due to flux of so many variables toppling over each other. That is why a day trader is forced to go selective, and creates a narrow tunnel vision of lower TFs and makes money proportionally to the ratios decided by that TF. That is, a day trader can't expect even in his wildest dreams to have 25-30% return on his capital in every second trade. Which OTOH a long-term clever positional trader takes as almost his birth right (that is how 50 dollar Havanas get puffed with impunity, sirji! :lol. On top, what might be termed as minor kinks in the eyes of high TF swing/ positional traders may seem major trend changing events to a daytrader/scalper... Just as a human sneeze would sound like thunderclap to 4-inch long sparrow.
However, as a trader, I will say only this: that the effects of all the above that you preceive will co-relate accordingly only to what trading perspective one is talking from. That is, if one sees the market through day trader's eyes, the change of scenery on the screen would be too fast to keep a tab on due to flux of so many variables toppling over each other. That is why a day trader is forced to go selective, and creates a narrow tunnel vision of lower TFs and makes money proportionally to the ratios decided by that TF. That is, a day trader can't expect even in his wildest dreams to have 25-30% return on his capital in every second trade. Which OTOH a long-term clever positional trader takes as almost his birth right (that is how 50 dollar Havanas get puffed with impunity, sirji! :lol
. On top, what might be termed as minor kinks in the eyes of high TF swing/ positional traders may seem major trend changing events to a daytrader/scalper... Just as a human sneeze would sound like thunderclap to 4-inch long sparrow.- Status
Similar threads
-
NSE Changes Nifty Bank Expiry Day to Friday for Future and Options Contracts
- Started by DreamDeal
- Replies: 11
-
NIFTY/ BANK NIFTY Option Trade Tool (Buy/ Sell) based on Futures / Spot Prices- Started by allex418
- Replies: 7
-
-
-