Hi, There are various method to identify the situation, The basic Concept about VIX's moving level, if its moving up or down faster than the average then it is a writing 100% (some times such writing may hold the market one week or more prior to the break out or down. Its happened in Apr-17-30 date vix stays certain range and market was acting like bullish trend)
but call or put which is to be identified by current rally and previous rally. (Both up and down) I will try to prepare simple calculation notes and forward you otherwise it will be big story